Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by forex friend

Hi Mike

This is how i see things at the moment, Not 100% that we have seen the top of five, so still waiting until things clear up.

In any case looking for the abc correction to unfold to take a long.

Best

JJ

Hi JJ,

I think we're done with Wave 5.if you look at on M5,you will clearly see the 5 waves up (with a simple ABC and triangle,complex in 4th wave).
it also can not be 1 of 5 because it will break the guidline of "proportionality".the wave 5 and rest wont be proportioned.

another indication of the top is the sharp sell-off followed by the 5th wave and that clearly overlaped the wave 1.so the chances are (except of an ending diagonal,I got mindful of that one!tricky one!) that it is forming the Wave 2 (abc correction).

Best,

clean and pretty chart!

ps: what are your target spots for wave 2? and where is your best price ,in term of R/R ratio,to go long?

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

great,thanks for the MACD info.I am trying to learn and set up MACD on my charts.
but dont know what levels figures I should put in there?

'input' numbers are on the default : 12,26,9 (I'm using MT4 platform)

thanks Sean,I want to get it right this time! with your help though! cheers

Yes, 12, 26 and 9 are the most commonly used settings. That's what I use.

Glad that example was helpful.

I'm a pro in a lot of areas...but I'll be the FIRST to tell you that I'm a "babe" when it comes to EW.

So I'm just as quick to tell you what I "don't know" as what I "do know". Honesty keeps on "thinking right". haha.

Originally Posted by speculator84

Here you go Sean, some more mechanical counts and a trade for those new guys brave enough and not to be leveraged up to their eyeballs.

GBP MONTHLY

WAVE 5 DOWN COMING SOON.
GANN RESISTANCE HIT

Attachment 39412

Attachment 39406

GBP WEEKLY
The Trend is still DOWN.
Attachment 39407

GBP DAILY

Daily has a H&S top with a broken neckline and throwback.......if price starts collapsing early next week watch out.
Attachment 39408

GBP 120min

GET READY TO SHORT
Attachment 39409

Forex Friend!! Awesome work!! I'm now short, GBP. Looking for 1.6100.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Yeah, that's good to know.

No, the MACD thing is a trick that helps those newer to EW like myself to gauge the waves.

Wave 3 has the very long MACD lines as wave 3 is most often the largest wave.

Then the wave 4 completes when the MACD's histogram flips back positive.

Then wave 5 is nearing an end when the MACD lines diverge from the cross at wave 3. That way, you see the "dying momentum" that's common with many wave 5s.

So it's a "counting crutch" that I use. haha. I read it from someone who uses MACD to confirm Elliott Waves.

Sean, have you tried using a 5,35 MA oscillator to count waves??? It's the defacto way...

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

Yes, 12, 26 and 9 are the most commonly used settings. That's what I use.

Glad that example was helpful.

I'm a pro in a lot of areas...but I'll be the FIRST to tell you that I'm a "babe" when it comes to EW.

So I'm just as quick to tell you what I "don't know" as what I "do know". Honesty keeps on "thinking right". haha.

so what are the level figures then?those are for the 'input'. if you oepn t MACD setting one option called "levels".I mean that one.

cheers,

the term 'babe' you used! I liked it alot!

Originally Posted by speculator84

Sean, have you tried using a 5,35 MA oscillator to count waves??? It's the defacto way...

I've seen someone use the 5,35,1 settings on MACD like below. I've used it before, but not in a long time.

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

so what are the level figures then?those are for the 'input'. if you oepn t MACD setting one option called "levels".I mean that one.

cheers,

the term 'babe' you used! I liked it alot!

What levels are you refering to? Are you talking about the MACD parameters?

Traditional settings are 12,26,9 on MACD.

Speculator also brought out a commonly used setting for counting which is 5,35,1.

The US dollar should bottom soon, or already has, and should undergo a major multi-month rally. Those of you on the same boat with that line of thinking can start preparing for that. I'm looking at getting long the dollar through the USD/CHF, and/or shorting the GBP/USD and EUR/USD. The 4hr GBP/USD chart shows a nice 5 wave decline and then a stalling/topping structure with a bearish momentum divergence (see stochastics at bottom of chart) forming, and trouble maintaining a levels above the fibo 61%-78% retracements. Aggressive bears can get short this pair, and other pairs that would get you long the dollar, against recent swing highs. More conservative traders can wait for confirmation that the US dollar has bottomed.

American-T
Stock Market and Forex Analysis using Elliott Wave Principle

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

What levels are you refering to? Are you talking about the MACD parameters?

Traditional settings are 12,26,9 on MACD.

Speculator also brought out a commonly used setting for counting which is 5,35,1.

Sean,appreciate your input.I think I've gotta leave it there! it doesn't work here! really thanks,I am quite happy with my EW for time being and will learn it later.

Originally Posted by American Trader

The US dollar should bottom soon, or already has, and should undergo a major multi-month rally. Those of you on the same boat with that line of thinking can start preparing for that. I'm looking at getting long the dollar through the USD/CHF, and/or shorting the GBP/USD and EUR/USD. The 4hr GBP/USD chart shows a nice 5 wave decline and then a stalling/topping structure with a bearish momentum divergence (see stochastics at bottom of chart) forming, and trouble maintaining a levels above the fibo 61%-78% retracements. Aggressive bears can get short this pair, and other pairs that would get you long the dollar, against recent swing highs. More conservative traders can wait for confirmation that the US dollar has bottomed.

American-T
Stock Market and Forex Analysis using Elliott Wave Principle

Hey AT.

2 Qs:

#1, on your cable your W2 looks very much like 5 waves .did you count that as an abc?

#2, would you mind if you share you DX final leg on H4.Do you count this as Ending Diagonal?

today I intially thought DX has bottomed. and that Ending Diagonal
is over but then couldnt convince myself of 3 sequence sub waves (ED are 3-3-3-3-3)

here again my DX chart which i posted it today.

PS:IF you can make/count the last leg as abc sequence (3-3-3-3-3) then I can agree with you that today USD Index has bottomed.

I'm short GBP against 1.6488, but I am very short USD/CHF and Gold.

Just remember this, when gold starting shooting for the moon EUR/GBP broke out and continued higher. It continued to go higher until only a couple days ago when Gold started moving down and surprise surprise ...GBP got a bid.

I believe the trend is starting to re-align itself. GBP topped, Gold hasn't bottomed but will shortly (12 hours or so) and EUR/GBP will head higher.

USD/CHF is about to fall off a cliff.

[QUOTE=mike3gdc;363973]Hey AT.

2 Qs:

#1, on your cable your W2 looks very much like 5 waves .did you count that as an abc?

#2, would you mind if you share you DX final leg on H4.Do you count this as Ending Diagonal?

today I intially thought DX has bottomed. and that Ending Diagonal
is over but then couldnt convince myself of 3 sequence sub waves (ED are 3-3-3-3-3)

here again my DX chart which i posted it today.

PS:IF you can make/count the last leg as abc sequence (3-3-3-3-3) then I can agree with you that today USD Index has bottomed.




Hi Mike, you're right on in saying the GBP/USD rally wave 2 looks like a 5 wave rally. But waves don't always unfold perfectly and we have to keep the bigger picture in mind first. With that in mind, my focus is on the clear 5 wave drop preceding that proposed wave 2. That takes precedence over apparent 5 wave rallies until the beginning of that 5 wave advance (1.6744) is exceeded, which it hasn't been. I won't honor the 5 wave rally as a trend reversal move until it goes above 1.6744. Until then, the rally is open to corrective interpretations, like the 1 hour chart I attached. You can see that there is a 5 wave rally, then sieways correction (looks like a B wave, not a 2 wave), and then another slight rally and reversal, making it look like a C wave. So it can be labeled as an ABC correction. It's ugly, but possible, and I feel this is more likely as long as it trades under 1.6744 than having it be an impulsive rally starting a new bull trend. The evidence supports the bears here in my view.

As for the dollar, I also attached my 4hr USD/CHF chart which is real close to the Dollar Index. I don't trade under the belief that every wave count will unfold perfectly, but it has to follow EWP rules and should follow the guidelines as much as possible. As you can see from my USD/CHF daily count, it's possible it's complete right now. Sure it can subdivide, like you said, but this bottom is so significant and will lead to a rally for months that I don't want to wait for the market to give me the absolute perfect setup before I pull the trigger. I'm long the USD/CHF at 1.0110 with a stop at 0.9630 for a long term strategy and will buy it as it falls, or when a bottom is confirmed. I have plenty of capital to comfortably take this position with such a wide stop loss. Those that don't, should wait for confirmation of a bottom.

This is just my view of the dollar right now, I don't mean to make it sound like this is law. I may be early, but when this thing bottoms and reverses, it will be hard to try and get that first position in.

American-T
Stock Market and Forex Analysis using Elliott Wave Principle

Hi guys,

Update on eurusd. There is one more high possible according to this count:

Originally Posted by American Trader

Hi Mike, you're right on in saying the GBP/USD rally wave 2 looks like a 5 wave rally. But waves don't always unfold perfectly and we have to keep the bigger picture in mind first. With that in mind, my focus is on the clear 5 wave drop preceding that proposed wave 2. That takes precedence over apparent 5 wave rallies until the beginning of that 5 wave advance (1.6744) is exceeded, which it hasn't been. I won't honor the 5 wave rally as a trend reversal move until it goes above 1.6744. Until then, the rally is open to corrective interpretations, like the 1 hour chart I attached. You can see that there is a 5 wave rally, then sieways correction (looks like a B wave, not a 2 wave), and then another slight rally and reversal, making it look like a C wave. So it can be labeled as an ABC correction. It's ugly, but possible, and I feel this is more likely as long as it trades under 1.6744 than having it be an impulsive rally starting a new bull trend. The evidence supports the bears here in my view.

As for the dollar, I also attached my 4hr USD/CHF chart which is real close to the Dollar Index. I don't trade under the belief that every wave count will unfold perfectly, but it has to follow EWP rules and should follow the guidelines as much as possible. As you can see from my USD/CHF daily count, it's possible it's complete right now. Sure it can subdivide, like you said, but this bottom is so significant and will lead to a rally for months that I don't want to wait for the market to give me the absolute perfect setup before I pull the trigger. I'm long the USD/CHF at 1.0110 with a stop at 0.9630 for a long term strategy and will buy it as it falls, or when a bottom is confirmed. I have plenty of capital to comfortably take this position with such a wide stop loss. Those that don't, should wait for confirmation of a bottom.

This is just my view of the dollar right now, I don't mean to make it sound like this is law. I may be early, but when this thing bottoms and reverses, it will be hard to try and get that first position in.

American-T
Stock Market and Forex Analysis using Elliott Wave Principle

AT,on the cable front.I underestand your arguement and the common sense you tried to put in it.it sounds to me you're biased on the downtrend and forcing the the current rally into an 'abc' instead of taking the easy and low-resistance path of taking the rally as W1.
as you mentioned you did adhere to EW rules and guidlines therfore your count could be right.
about the DX however,I wanted to see your DX count and know the reasons(purely EW speaking) why you thought the USD index has bottomed today?? for not trading but Educational purposes!

good luck with your trading.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

p3k, congrats! You are the "post of the day". http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/blogs...-goes-p3k.html

Loved the short term analysis of where the GBP/AUD pair was going. Great work!

Thanks Sean! I have been a silent reader of the forum for almost 1 year and have learned a lot from all participants.

It's been a good journey!