Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

USD/CHF is about to fall off a cliff.

then this also implies EU will make new highs. At some point the SNB will once more intervene as they have in the past. They are more concerned with EC then UC but both are at low levels where they have stepped in before and it has happened on wednesday. This is not to say they will only that the possibility is very good they will with more CHF strength in EC and UC from current levels

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

AT,on the cable front.I underestand your arguement and the common sense you tried to put in it.it sounds to me you're biased on the downtrend and forcing the the current rally into an 'abc' instead of taking the easy and low-resistance path of taking the rally as W1.
as you mentioned you did adhere to EW rules and guidlines therfore your count could be right.
about the DX however,I wanted to see your DX count and know the reasons(purely EW speaking) why you thought the USD index has bottomed today?? for not trading but Educational purposes!

good luck with your trading.

Mike, of course I am biased on the GBP/USD downtrend, the trend is down according to EWP. So why would I look for bullish counts in a downtrending market? (rhetorical). The larger trend, as defined by the prior 5 wave decline and head and shoulders pattern, is biased to the downside, so therefore I'm also biased to the downside (under 1.6744).

I am not sure the dollar has bottomed today. I said, "The US dollar should bottom soon." Since I'm a swing trader and long term trader I want to start establishing long positions because the dollar can bottom any day now. I have no confirmation of a bottom at all, I just know it's near based on several factors, but here are the main ones:

1) dollar sentiment is at extreme bearish levels, just look at any newspaper or media headline every week.
2) the stock market top will coincide with a dollar bottom. The stock market may have topped yesterday, but if not it will do so very soon.
3) the wave count can count complete as I put in the attached chart of the USD/CHF 4hr. The only EWP requirement for wave 5 is that it exceeds wave 3, and it's done that.

So I am starting to establish bullish long positions, and will add to them as the market falls. Once a bottom is confirmed, I'll go in full force. Until then, I'm just establishing longs for the long run.

Trust me, when I can confirm a dollar bottom is in, I'll be here screaming it from a roof top, lol. I attached a hasty 4hr chart of the USD/CHF again for you to see what I mean on how the wave count may be complete.

Regards,
American-T
Stock Market and Forex Analysis using Elliott Wave Principle

Originally Posted by American Trader

The larger trend, as defined by the prior 5 wave decline and head and shoulders pattern, is biased to the downside, so therefore I'm also biased to the downside (under 1.6744).


3) the wave count can count complete as I put in the attached chart of the USD/CHF 4hr. The only EWP requirement for wave 5 is that it exceeds wave 3, and it's done that.

That last statement isn't true in the least bit. Wave (5) can be truncated, in which case it would not exceed the end of wave (3). The only requirement for wave (5) of an impulse is that it subdivide into five waves. This is basic EW stuff here.

You mentioned "the prior five-wave decline" and how it is biasing the GBP/USD to the downside. I assume that decline you speak of is the one I have shown on the chart below? You are saying that decline is wave (1) of a new impulsive decline and that lower prices should follow. I'm just curious if you can see whether or not that decline could be anything other than a wave (1). Keep in mind that impulses can occur in seven different places within the EW structure. Can that five-wave decline be anything other than a wave (1)?

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

Hi Guys,

I posted an ultra bearish usdchf last week.here it is again with an EURUSD ultra bullish count.can anyone rule out this possibility or think my counts are breaking some EW rules or do not make sense?

Originally Posted by American Trader

1) dollar sentiment is at extreme bearish levels, just look at any newspaper or media headline every week.

Right,you don't want to present your DX chart?that's okay.how about this one,
I have posted above USDCHF and EURUSD charts twice before but sofar,no one wanted to properly challenge them.

so once again,I am bringing these charts forward ...
I wont be really surprised if USDCHF price action takes out 0.9616 fairly soon,maybe in about one or two weeks. to make a multi-decade new low (since 1975) and we're not that far from that vital low(as far as USD is concerned ofcausre)...
only 470 points away.

with regards to your Cable's prevailing trend,we had this dicussion few days ago and Justin went into the great details of all the Cable possibilties and agreed that so far all the evidences are in favor of atleast a short-term bullish (in forms of an abc) and all Cable bears in this forum were watching and it seemed they all either agreed or went nuetral on the direction.

USD IS UNDER HUGE PRESSURE...and this is an extraordinary time.

and also there is already serious concern of a Currency Crisis by around ,next week.

Please Be mindful of that.

I have no positions anywhere and waiting for a clear,blue sky,can handle few fluffy clouds...

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

Right,you don't want to present your DX chart?that's okay.how about this one,
I have posted above USDCHF and EURUSD charts twice before but sofar,no one wanted to properly challenge it.

so once again,I am mentioning this charts...
I wont be really surprised if USDCHF price action takes out 0.9616 fairly soon,maybe less than 1 week! and make multi decade new low (since 1975) and we're not that far from it.only 470!

Hi Mike,

There was a discussion last week on the long-term USD charts (http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/ellio...tml#post360451 (Elliott Wave Trading Discussion)). I completely agree that one of the possibilities for the USD is that it could continue lower in the long-term.

The best course of action is to remain objective. Let the waves unfold and then make your decisions based on that. Don't try and force any bias you may have on the market. If the market wants to turn around, it will let you know in due time.

Hey Justy,

Do you happen to be following a (4hr/daily)count for EUR/GBP? And, if so, do you mind posting it? Thanks.

Here's an update to the EUR/USD count I'm following. The most recent rally can now be counted in five-waves (4 hour chart), so this could mark the end of wave (iii) of (5). We may see a retracement down to the 1.4600 area over the next week or two.

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Justy,

Do you happen to be following a (4hr/daily)count for EUR/GBP? And, if so, do you mind posting it? Thanks.

Hi Apipintime,

Perhaps something like this is possible. The recent decline from 0.9409 appears to be in five waves, and if that is true then one of three counts is possible:

-Flat Correction (completed)
-Impulsive Decline (wave 1 complete)
-Corrective Decline (wave A complete)

All three counts are near-term bullish up to around 0.9250 or so. What is your current count on this pair?

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hi Mike,

There was a discussion last week on the long-term USD charts (http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/ellio...tml#post360451 (Elliott Wave Trading Discussion)). I completely agree that one of the possibilities for the USD is that it could continue lower in the long-term.

The best course of action is to remain objective. Let the waves unfold and then make your decisions based on that. Don't try and force any bias you may have on the market. If the market wants to turn around, it will let you know in due time.

Hi Justin,

Yes,I clearly recall that chart.however,your link above is wrong.it takes me to 2008 charts.

I looked for that chart but couldnt find it.can you please send the link or re-post chart?cheers

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

Hi Justin,

Yes,I clearly recall that chart.however,your link above is wrong.it takes me to 2008 charts.

I looked for that chart but couldnt find it.can you please send the link or re-post chart?cheers

When I click on the link it goes to post #19825 (http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/ellio...tml#post360451 (Elliott Wave Trading Discussion)). The charts there are dated 10 May 2009. Reposted is the chart that I was referring to:

Originally Posted by justy10125

Hi Apipintime,

Perhaps something like this is possible. The recent decline from 0.9409 appears to be in five waves, and if that is true then one of three counts is possible:

-Flat Correction (completed)
-Impulsive Decline (wave 1 complete)
-Corrective Decline (wave A complete)

All three counts are near-term bullish up to around 0.9250 or so. What is your current count on this pair?

I am leaning towards a possible wave 4 flat correction. My difficulty comes when trying to count the area in the box, so I have labeled it a possible corrective B wave. It was the 5 wave move down(C wave?) that caught my attention, as I haven't been following this pair for some time, and I wanted to see where it fit in the grand scheme of things. Thanks.

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

Hi Justin,

Yes,I clearly recall that chart.however,your link above is wrong.it takes me to 2008 charts.

I looked for that chart but couldnt find it.can you please send the link or re-post chart?cheers

I got the same thing Mike.....

Originally Posted by apipintime

I am leaning towards a possible wave 4 flat correction. My difficulty comes when trying to count the area in the box, so I have labeled it a possible corrective B wave. It was the 5 wave move down(C wave?) that caught my attention, as I haven't been following this pair for some time, and I wanted to see where it fit in the grand scheme of things. Thanks.

Yeah that area you have shown in the box does count best as a three-wave rally. That is what opens the door for the possibility of the flat correction, as you have also shown. But just incase that is not a three-wave rally and that is not a flat, keep those other two possibilities in mind.

Originally Posted by justy10125

When I click on the link it goes to post #19825 (http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/ellio...tml#post360451 (Elliott Wave Trading Discussion)). The charts there are dated 10 May 2009. Reposted is the chart that I was referring to:

thanks again.
when I click on the link it takes me to the page 1332, (09.08.2008)...
I guess Sean is in sleep now!

its 3.30am GMT and time for bed.

by the way,Justin,I sense we are onto something here.
I guess we have to seriously think about some currency pairs which we used to count as "corrective".
as you said we must be objective and let the market tell us the direction so far we listened to kiwi impulsive move and Cable new bull trend and also EURUSD...the irony is ,we could have been riding "motive waves" on some pairs for all this time...

just one upside down! and we wiil be in the right direction!
.good night all

Here is a bullish EWT outlook for the GBP JPY......what do you think folks?