Is an older copy of the book, the 20th anniversary edition perhaps?
The key words in here are: "The jury is out on a strict definition." As you can see, they are talking about a few examples that they have.
I have here an example of a leading diagonal as it occured in june '09 in the eurgbp.
Also the quoted text from the latest Prechter/Frost edition.
Hey Pip,
Read the underlined portion of Justy's post. They are clearly referring to the internal structure (3-3-3-3-3 or 5-3-5-3-5) with the "The jury is out on a strict definition" comment.
I like to be on the safe side of the trade.
In this case I am not ruling out a leading diagonal. Others may be more confident in their analysis, but I am not ruling it out yet.
78.6% is a typical retracement, not a rule, but a guideline. EWP speaks only of a "deep" retracement, not even a ratio or fibo level.
So, I was bullish from 1.57.
It can be a zigzag correction,
Not ruling out the LD,
Not ruling out a truncated 5th wave.
To be safe you should trade to the minimum target.
You can move stops into profit, hold the trade and see if there is more upside.
If it breaks the 1.70 top, a leading diagonal is definitely out and so is a truncation, and more gains are to be expected.
As far as the bearish argument goes, I want to see 5 waves down and 3 waves up. If that happens below 1.70, then the leading diagonal scenario or 5th wave truncation can be taken as primary counts.
how can I possibily buy into your story that you just have been conservative here?will you really wait for the top of 1.7040 to be taken then go long? or you trade differently with what you say in the forum?
I think like AT,you're simply too biased on the Cable downtrend AND are forcing the count.
my point is that You're still stuck on that last leg and missing the bigger picture.
you trade the way you like.but how honest we should be when we throw the 'words' out there?
good luck man.
on the chart below,it seems clearly that the drop was abc and as Justin cable all-possible-counts was showing we can expect min.atleast a rally to near to the top in abc form.(to reach this analysis,he had the "bigger picture"in mind)
The US dollar should bottom soon, or already has, and should undergo a major multi-month rally. Those of you on the same boat with that line of thinking can start preparing for that. I'm looking at getting long the dollar through the USD/CHF, and/or shorting the GBP/USD and EUR/USD. The 4hr GBP/USD chart shows a nice 5 wave decline and then a stalling/topping structure with a bearish momentum divergence (see stochastics at bottom of chart) forming, and trouble maintaining a levels above the fibo 61%-78% retracements. Aggressive bears can get short this pair, and other pairs that would get you long the dollar, against recent swing highs. More conservative traders can wait for confirmation that the US dollar has bottomed.
how can I possibily buy into your story that you just have been conservative here?will you really wait for the top of 1.7040 to be taken then go long? or you trade differently with what you say in the forum?
I think like AT,you're simply too biased on the Cable downtrend AND are forcing the count.
my point is that You're still stuck on that last leg and missing the bigger picture.
you trade the way you like.but how honest we should be when we throw the 'words' out there?
What are you trying to tell me here Mike? I am not telling you to do anything. Also, I am not predominantly bearish. If you read well what I said is that I am in favor of the zigzag correction but not ruling out a bearish count at this point. A break of the recent top at 1.70 would rule out a short term bearish scenario because of the rule: "Wave 2 shall not retrace more than wave 1" that is the only rule that I go by right now no matter what AT, Justy, Prechter or anybody else including you, say.
Trading is not gambling. If you want to gamble go to the casino.
I have never had a margin call and like to keep it that way.
What you do is your business. I try to trade with minimal risk and high probability trades with good r/r ratio's.
If I am stuck in a pattern that I am not sure of, I either don't trade it or trade to the minimum profit targets with minimal risk.
The GBPUSD to me can still go either way. By taking that stance you cannot go wrong because no matter which way it goes you will always be prepared. If you maintain a bullish and a bearish count with defined entry and exit signals, it doesn't matter which way the price goes.
The rules of EW are simple:
- Wave 2 does not retrace more that wave 1.
- Wave 3 is never the shortest.
- Wave 4 does not enter the territory of wave 1.
Trade by those rules and you will have a greater chance of being successful.
Hello guys,
Possible text book ending diagonal and end of wave 5!
I have added to my long positions, targeting the start of the LD.
Kindly check EWP book page 39 figure 1-18.
All the waves and subdivisions are identical!
I come to belive more and more we are up against a computer programers in the market, if you know what i mean.
PS; todays low hit the EW chanel at the same time!
Hello guys,
Possible text book ending diagonal and end of wave 5!
I have added to my long positions, targeting the start of the LD.
Kindly check EWP book page 39 figure 1-18.
All the waves and subdivisions are identical!
I come to belive more and more we are up against a computer programers in the market, if you know what i mean.
PS; todays low hit the EW chanel at the same time!
Ed,
Hey Ed,
Aren't the "Elliott Channeling" lines supposed to be parallel?
What are you trying to tell me here Mike? I am not telling you to do anything. Also, I am not predominantly bearish. If you read well what I said is that I am in favor of the zigzag correction but not ruling out a bearish count at this point. A break of the recent top at 1.70 would rule out a short term bearish scenario because of the rule: "Wave 2 shall not retrace more than wave 1" that is the only rule that I go by right now no matter what AT, Justy, Prechter or anybody else including you, say.
Trading is not gambling. If you want to gamble go to the casino.
I have never had a margin call and like to keep it that way.
What you do is your business. I try to trade with minimal risk and high probability trades with good r/r ratio's.
If I am stuck in a pattern that I am not sure of, I either don't trade it or trade to the minimum profit targets with minimal risk.
The GBPUSD to me can still go either way. By taking that stance you cannot go wrong because no matter which way it goes you will always be prepared. If you maintain a bullish and a bearish count with defined entry and exit signals, it doesn't matter which way the price goes.
The rules of EW are simple:
- Wave 2 does not retrace more that wave 1.
- Wave 3 is never the shortest.
- Wave 4 does not enter the territory of wave 1.
Trade by those rules and you will have a greater chance of being successful.
Hello guys,
Possible text book ending diagonal and end of wave 5!
I have added to my long positions, targeting the start of the LD.
Kindly check EWP book page 39 figure 1-18.
All the waves and subdivisions are identical!
I come to belive more and more we are up against a computer programers in the market, if you know what i mean.
PS; todays low hit the EW chanel at the same time!
Ed,
Very good chart Ed, thanks!
That could mean that eurusd, gbpusd and other ...usd pairs are topping right now.
As far as computer programmers go, they each have their own algorithms and trading systems. If all computers would buy and sell at the same time with exactly the same targets ang stops, then yes, we would have a problem. But since that is not the case and since people are still involved, I don't see any reason to believe that it has an effect on market behaviour according to the Elliott rules.
Very good chart Ed, thanks!
That could mean that eurusd, gbpusd and other ...usd pairs are topping right now.
As far as computer programmers go, they each have their own algorithms and trading systems. If all computers would buy and sell at the same time with exactly the same targets ang stops, then yes, we would have a problem. But since that is not the case and since people are still involved, I don't see any reason to believe that it has an effect on market behaviour according to the Elliott rules.
Thanks Ilovepippin,
Even-though i agree with you for the most part. I have seen too much similarities in the same week all around diff. currency pairs. I mentioned this last week aslo.
One week you would see LD's and the other week you would see triangles all over.
I guess it's also the correlation between the pairs is one reason.
And not to mention the croud psychology/ emotions, which it repeats over and over.
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Originally Posted by forex friend
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