Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by American Trader

Hi Mike, I usually trade commodities, stock indices and sometimes currencies using ETF options along with individual stocks when I see a nice EWP pattern. I posted a daily wave count for Intel.

You are right that EWP is best applied to markets that have the largest crowds effecting them though, but that doesn't stop me from trading individual stocks as well.

I track the indices in detail on my blog if you're interested.

Regards,
American-T
Stock Market and Forex Analysis using Elliott Wave Principle

thanks for the intel chart.
yes I checked your webside and sent an e-mail asking for subscription!

great website.keep it up

best,

For you stock market and US dollar followers this may be important. The stock market just tanked in almost a straight line down. Although the impact of this decline on the US dollar has been minimal SO FAR, I've said before that when the stock market tops, the US dollar will bottom.

Take this attached Dow chart and consider what happens later in the session and combine it with the evidence I've shown with the USD/CHF chart and I think the bullish USD/CHF case deserves serious attention. Although a bottom in the dollar is not confirmed, I remain on high alert for it to happen.

American-T

Originally Posted by American Trader

For you stock market and US dollar followers this may be important. The stock market just tanked in almost a straight line down. Although the impact of this decline on the US dollar has been minimal SO FAR, I've said before that when the stock market tops, the US dollar will bottom.

Take this attached Dow chart and consider what happens later in the session and combine it with the evidence I've shown with the USD/CHF chart and I think the bullish USD/CHF case deserves serious attention. Although a bottom in the dollar is not confirmed, I remain on high alert for it to happen.

American-T

Yep, this could be it. Nice double top there on your chart.

Originally Posted by American Trader

For you stock market and US dollar followers this may be important. The stock market just tanked in almost a straight line down. Although the impact of this decline on the US dollar has been minimal SO FAR, I've said before that when the stock market tops, the US dollar will bottom.

Take this attached Dow chart and consider what happens later in the session and combine it with the evidence I've shown with the USD/CHF chart and I think the bullish USD/CHF case deserves serious attention. Although a bottom in the dollar is not confirmed, I remain on high alert for it to happen.

American-T

Thanks AT;

About that time I began shorting the Eur$ and Gbp$. I have found and interesting tidbit in my study of cycles.

According to Edgar Lawrence Smith's 10 year cycle years ending in 3,7 &10 are down years and those ending in 5, 7, 8 and most 9 are up. He postulated that the yearly cycle should be counted from the beginning of Oct instead of January.

According to Kirkpatrick and Dhalquist, his cycle has merit having been correct most of the time. In a 100 year study the 5th hear has been up 100% of the time "Technical Analysis" pp 161

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by American Trader

Here's an updated 4hr chart of the USD/CHF. You can see that there is a 5 wave decline in progress and so a bottom and reversal can occur at any time. To support this wave count, look at the momentum divergence occuring on the RSI in the proposed 5th wave. This is typical for 5th waves, and adds evidence that this wave count is on track.

I'm looking for a daily reversal bar/candle, or extreme strength to confirm a bottom.

American-T

AT,I do nt get this.Can you elaborate on your 4hr chart and show the sub counts?
No matter how any indicators diverge or converge,your USDCHF wave structure has not matured yet. for the major rally you expect
you can not neglet a structural problem in a brigde or a dam and say, this bridge has a perfect lighting system,nice railings and arches and color etc...the structure is faulty and that is where attention primarily needs to be focused.

there is a huge structural issue in the USDCHF count you and others have shown today.all have failed to come up with a solid EW count with the minor waves to support your bullish count.

also you've forgotten the fact; getting close to the parity with USD generates this downward spiraly force that is pulling the price lower and lower.

I still encourage you or anyone to back up your bullish swissy count with a wave count on minor degree or higher.


thanks.

Originally Posted by American Trader

For you stock market and US dollar followers this may be important. The stock market just tanked in almost a straight line down. Although the impact of this decline on the US dollar has been minimal SO FAR, I've said before that when the stock market tops, the US dollar will bottom.

Take this attached Dow chart and consider what happens later in the session and combine it with the evidence I've shown with the USD/CHF chart and I think the bullish USD/CHF case deserves serious attention. Although a bottom in the dollar is not confirmed, I remain on high alert for it to happen.

American-T

AT I remain stead fast that respectfully, this time around, a tanking US Stock market will be a confidence issue in the USD. It will be double losses all around for US Investors.

The US Carry Trade now in full swing and lush with free money demands the USD go lower. Any rally willl be met with fresh borrowing US funds, only to be deployed in gold,oil,copper (commodies) and foreign denominated AAA assets.

If you read some articles by Martin Armstrong, who is a master at timing and cycles, the stock market must wait for the 33 month low from the 2007 high BEFORE it can discount inflation and lack of government confidence. (ie a falling USD)

Here's a count for EUR/JPY.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Thanks AT;

About that time I began shorting the Eur$ and Gbp$. I have found and interesting tidbit in my study of cycles.

According to Edgar Lawrence Smith's 10 year cycle years ending in 3,7 &10 are down years and those ending in 5, 7, 8 and most 9 are up. He postulated that the yearly cycle should be counted from the beginning of Oct instead of January.

According to Kirkpatrick and Dhalquist, his cycle has merit having been correct most of the time. In a 100 year study the 5th hear has been up 100% of the time "Technical Analysis" pp 161

Good Luck.

Oooooo, I always like these little tidbits from other experts.

Thanks Aerocom!

American-T

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

AT,I do nt get this.Can you elaborate on your 4hr chart and show the sub counts?
No matter how any indicators diverge or converge,your USDCHF wave structure has not matured yet. for the major rally you expect
you can not neglet a structural problem in a brigde or a dam and say, this bridge has a perfect lighting system,nice railings and arches and color etc...the structure is faulty and that is where attention primarily needs to be focused.

there is a huge structural issue in the USDCHF count you and others have shown today.all have failed to come up with a solid EW count with the minor waves to support your bullish count.

also you've forgotten the fact; getting close to the parity with USD generates this downward spiraly force that is pulling the price lower and lower.

I still encourage you or anyone to back up your bullish swissy count with a wave count on minor degree or higher.


thanks.

If you are waiting for a market to unfold in absolutely perfect form adhering to all guidelines before making a trade then that is your choice. I almost never wait for the most perfect wave count to occur at all degrees because the market often unfolds imperfectly, I just ensure no rules were violated and then make the best decision from the data available. Right now, the divergence occuring in the 5th wave position suggest the USD/CHF is in a finishing posture, which supports my current wave count as of right now. Of course the RSI can make a new low and negate this divergence, but it has not done so. I am merely projecting a big trade that may come.

And I've clarified several times that there is no confirmation that the USD/CHF has bottomed, I've always stated that it's bottoming. Here's my last statement on the subject, " Although a bottom in the dollar is not confirmed, I remain on high alert for it to happen."

American-T

Originally Posted by speculator84

AT I remain stead fast that respectfully, this time around, a tanking US Stock market will be a confidence issue in the USD. It will be double losses all around for US Investors.

The US Carry Trade now in full swing and lush with free money demands the USD go lower. Any rally willl be met with fresh borrowing US funds, only to be deployed in gold,oil,copper (commodies) and foreign denominated AAA assets.

If you read some articles by Martin Armstrong, who is a master at timing and cycles, the stock market must wait for the 33 month low from the 2007 high BEFORE it can discount inflation and lack of government confidence. (ie a falling USD)

Of course you may be right, the USD may continue lower, however I don't believe so at all. That's just my view. I'm not much of a fundamental guy, but I do know that when the stock market has risen lately, the dollar has fallen. This is partly due to the fact that people are taking more risks, and they are converting their US dollars into foreign currencies and investing overseas again. When risk aversion hits the table again with a stock market crash, people will have to repatriate those funds to the US and will have to sell their foreign investments and convert the currency back into US dollars. Also, when global investors get scared, they trust the US the most and will buy US treasury bills in full force most likely. They will have to convert their foreign currency into US dollars to do so. These two factors will create huge buying power will make the dollar rally big.

When fear enters the global markets, high risk currencies and investments are liquidated and converted into the safest currency, the US dollar.

My opinion.

American-T

Guys,
Im officially stumped on Oil. The ending diagonal I was following shows wave 3 to be smaller that wave 5. Since wave 1 is the longest, thats a no no.

Originally Posted by italm31

Guys,
Im officially stumped on Oil. The ending diagonal I was following shows wave 3 to be smaller that wave 5. Since wave 1 is the longest, thats a no no.

How about this? I have a spike down to 60.74 that you may be missing for some reason?

For all you elliotticians that like to follow sentiment to support wave counts you'll notice that the US dollar has a negative story printed almost every day in major media outlets, and today CNBC.com is no exception (see pic below). Mainstream media reports keep piling on negative stories on the greenback, and for those who follow sentiment know that this type of behavior from the mainstream occurs at major trend reversals, not at the start of new trends. The general public, mainstream media, and the government are almost always the last to jump on the train of a trend. Usually when they jump on, the trend is ending and reversing.

If the US dollar were to excelerate downward, the mainstream media would be the last to let us know. The US dollar is getting dangerously close to a bottom. The USD/CHF should have no problem staying above 0.9644


American-T
Stock Market and Forex Analysis using Elliott Wave Principle

Originally Posted by American Trader

For all you elliotticians that like to follow sentiment to support wave counts you'll notice that the US dollar has a negative story printed almost every day in major media outlets, and today CNBC.com is no exception (see pic below). Mainstream media reports keep piling on negative stories on the greenback, and for those who follow sentiment know that this type of behavior from the mainstream occurs at major trend reversals, not at the start of new trends. The general public, mainstream media, and the government are almost always the last to jump on the train of a trend. Usually when they jump on, the trend is ending and reversing.

If the US dollar were to excelerate downward, the mainstream media would be the last to let us know. The US dollar is getting dangerously close to a bottom. The USD/CHF should have no problem staying above 0.9644

American-T
Stock Market and Forex Analysis using Elliott Wave Principle

Yes absolutely correct, and in the meantime, while we wait for this "bottom", keep selling USD on dips as long as trend line isn't broken, even if that means EUR going to 1.6, GBP going to 1.9, and AUD going to 1.1.

Well I think all eyes are on Gold and silver right now. If theyre not, they should be! Both comonodies have not made new highs since last week. Meanwhile, Usd keeps making new lows without support from real money. Does that mean something? Maybe...maybe not. But one thing for sure, well find out soon enough. Here is my take on Silver. Both Silver and Gold show similar counts on the hourly but I perfer to analyse silver as I seem to see it better. I will illustrate 3 charts. The first 2 are different long term counts. 1 has a top in place. The other needs one more up, down sequence to finish the ABC corrective pattern. Finally, the hourly looks very bearish to me. It semms to be moving down in 5 wave sequences. Yeterdays down move was a 7 wave sequence, but the last wave looks like a b wave of an expanded flat. If that is the case, silver is moving down form now. That brings us back to the long term chart. Is it moving down for a wave 4 of C or is C complete and we put in a majpr top? Either way, if we do move down from here, since 4 cant close in wave 1 territory, 16.23 is crutial. For now, all we can do is sit and wait for the outcome.