Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Jayrad,

That is a possibility, but the nature of the fall from 1.67 seems more like an ABC than a straight impulse. Either way, both counts would have bullish implications, and would increase the probability that price should continue on up sooner rather than later.

I just tried to do up a quick chart and although it seems possible it really doesn't look right. It was just a quick thought I had, I doubt very much it will turn out to be correct.

This looks like a pretty high probability setup to me with a really nice risk reward ratio. There is an upward sloping support line currently at around 1.474. Around the 1.475 area has also been resistance several times before in the past few months. It is extremely unlikely that price will just slice through this region without rebounding off it first.

A retracement in the Euro also correlated to the rebound in the SPX (see my previous chart) which is already underway.

I am going to place a buy order in at 1.475 with a stop loss at 1.469 just below the 61.8% Fibonacci of the previous upswing. Initial target is 1.488.

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Jayrad,

That is a possibility, but the nature of the fall from 1.67 seems more like an ABC than a straight impulse. Either way, both counts would have bullish implications, and would increase the probability that price should continue on up sooner rather than later.

Jay,

un F%^%^&% believable.The triangle got invalidated?.do you have any alternate count?

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Here are other counts on the EURUSD:

Thanks Ilovepippin...

As asked last night... Would people change their minds on the EUR if the whole corrective pattern from July 08 to April 09 was a Traingle.....?

The pattern in question.... Take a look at the ratio's

Daily EUR July08/April09

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

Jay,

un F%^%^&% believable.The triangle got invalidated?.do you have any alternate count?

Cable is taking off. I think it'll lead the way and the rest will follow soon. Here is a possible count for it.

Originally Posted by Swedish

Hi pros. I have a question regarding EUR/NOK where I identified a head and shoulders.

As you can see I have highlighted a part with two green vertical lines.

It looks to me like a triangle - ABCDE.

Even if this is not a triangle, is it still possible for wave 1 and 2 to evolve within such triangle?

Here is a link to the picture:
http://i37.tinypic.com/307q2r8.gif

Swedish, welcome to the trading community. Good to have you here with us.

Also,be aware that Norway just raised rates overnight...the first in Europe to do this. DailyFX Forum - News in 60 Seconds

Glad to have you with us. Looking forward to more posts from you.

Originally Posted by Jayrad

Cable is taking off. I think it'll lead the way and the rest will follow soon. Here is a possible count for it.

lead the way to south or north?! the triple zigzag you showed is B and C follows?

Originally Posted by MrWilson

Thanks Ilovepippin...

As asked last night... Would people change their minds on the EUR if the whole corrective pattern from July 08 to April 09 was a Traingle.....?

The pattern in question.... Take a look at the ratio's

Daily EUR July08/April09

We would, if there was a mind to change.
I don't hold a biased view, at least I am trying not to.
I am hoping for the best, I think it is in everybody's best interest to see a stock market rally.
Go with the trend, whatever that trend is.

Your triangle looks like a good count. The answer is in the collective behavior of the traders. Which characteristics does this market have? The labels don't determine the trend, the trend will determine the labels.

A good clue can be found in the Dow Jones and SP500, what is their direction? Most likely the dollar will follow the Dow.

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

We would, if there was a mind to change.
IA good clue can be found in the Dow Jones and SP500, what is their direction? Most likely the dollar will follow the Dow.

Not necessarily..
You can still get Asset deflation during monetary expansion....

You can have a weak dollar & have a weak stock asset market...

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

Jay,

un F%^%^&% believable.The triangle got invalidated?.do you have any alternate count?

Hey Mike,

Could be a larger triangle or flat unfolding?

Originally Posted by mike3gdc

lead the way to south or north?! the triple zigzag you showed is B and C follows?

I think it's going north to retrace a bit more before further downside, I think the C might be quite large compared to the rest of the move. My main reason for thinking this is that I am extremely bullish short term EUR/USD (see my previous post) and have a strong belief in the bearish almost identical inverse count for USD/CHF and Dollar Index in the short term.

I know it is possible for the GBP to fall while the others rise, but I can't see any reason for this to happen at the moment. I do forsee another drop in the GBP and it might even lead the way for the other pairs a bit later on, but I don't see it happening straight away.

anothere one possible short-term setup...

Originally Posted by Jayrad

I think it's going north to retrace a bit more before further downside, I think the C might be quite large compared to the rest of the move. My main reason for thinking this is that I am extremely bullish short term EUR/USD (see my previous post) and have a strong belief in the bearish almost identical inverse count for USD/CHF and Dollar Index in the short term.

I know it is possible for the GBP to fall while the others rise, but I can't see any reason for this to happen at the moment. I do forsee another drop in the GBP and it might even lead the way for the other pairs a bit later on, but I don't see it happening straight away.

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Mike,

Could be a larger triangle or flat unfolding?

I dont like it but An idea out of blue! I just learnt that we need to squeeze the last drop of all possibilties!

so a case for a real north!



Jay,to me the likelihood Jayrad's count is more.D zz or triple zz.

Here is a short-term view that may explain a few things. A possible wave(iv) of C triangle or flat?

Hey Apipintime,

Here is my view of the dollar index and the reasons why I believe it is correct.

- Wave 1 is equal to Wave 5.
- There is alternation between Waves 2 and 4.
- C of Wave 2 is exactly 61.8% of A of Wave 2.

Either way there should be a retracement in the short term, if you are correct the retracement will likely be more shallow than if I am right.