With the clear 3 wave rise from the 1.5850 area, and the sharp reversal this morning, I feel comfortable lowering my stop to last night's high to around 1.6075. My this will lock in another 40 pips of profits for a total of 160 pips so far. Here's a link to the original setup for this trade: AUD/USD and GBP/USD Currency Trades
certainly possible that the dow has completed an expanded flat as wave 2 at yesterday's high. with the possibility of a 3rd underway now, this is not something that you want to ignore
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Hi Sean - Ravno always looks at fibo relations between swings. Equal swings strongly favour this scenario. Moreover, the very first move up looks messy enough to consider it a corrective move rather than impulsive one.
Patryk
Fazi, thanks for the info. I appreciate it.
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First target: A=C @ 1.0472 which is also the 50% retracement of waves 1-5
don't completely dismiss this one. an expanded flat could be complete at today's low. this would fit with the dow chart that i posted before.
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.
4hr USD/JPY - not a clear view of where this pair is going right now, but given my bearish EUR/JPY count and the risk aversion we are starting to see I would favor the downside.
agreed, the rally from last week's low could be a double zizag. be careful trading this though because there really is no good stop level. the usdjpy could retrace the entire decline from 9380 and still be in a large flat. staying below 9190 keeps the complex count intact
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.
certainly possible that the dow has completed an expanded flat as wave 2 at yesterday's high. with the possibility of a 3rd underway now, this is not something that you want to ignore
(My S&P chart is from yesterday)
Good call Jamie, my count is similar only I'm counting wave ii as the 1150 high because it gives a better look to the entire 5 wave structure and because the S&P futures failed to make a new high in conjunction with the cash index. Unfortunately with my count it seems that only a 2 day pop would not lend itself to making the entire correction complete, and today's recent decline is looking choppy and corrective so at least one more new high, however slight, looks possible. I would in no way be long here, but I'm personally holding off adding to my shorts to see if this index can rise to fill a gap at the 1116 area, which is also around the 50% fibo level. If the market can even make it that far, I'll add shorts.
The US dollar is poised to surge against the majors according to this morning's action so it's very possible the stock market just formed a top. If so, look out below, this next decline will be a doozy!
agreed, the rally from last week's low could be a double zizag. be careful trading this though because there really is no good stop level. the usdjpy could retrace the entire decline from 9380 and still be in a large flat. staying below 9190 keeps the complex count intact
Yep, I'm staying away from USD/JPY and going for more defined risk in EUR/JPY. Stop is at 128.50.
It's possible that Ravno's double zigzag is a B wave of continuing Wave 2 expanded or running flat that started on the 22nd of Dec. Wave B is exactly 138.2% of wave A. Just some food for thought.
Hi Jay - Yes, this could be the case - I have to digest it
certainly possible that the dow has completed an expanded flat as wave 2 at yesterday's high. with the possibility of a 3rd underway now, this is not something that you want to ignore
Originally Posted by American Trader
(My S&P chart is from yesterday)
Good call Jamie, my count is similar only I'm counting wave ii as the 1150 high because it gives a better look to the entire 5 wave structure and because the S&P futures failed to make a new high in conjunction with the cash index. Unfortunately with my count it seems that only a 2 day pop would not lend itself to making the entire correction complete, and today's recent decline is looking choppy and corrective so at least one more new high, however slight, looks possible. I would in no way be long here, but I'm personally holding off adding to my shorts to see if this index can rise to fill a gap at the 1116 area, which is also around the 50% fibo level. If the market can even make it that far, I'll add shorts.
The US dollar is poised to surge against the majors according to this morning's action so it's very possible the stock market just formed a top. If so, look out below, this next decline will be a doozy!
I have the Dow tracing out an ABC correction that should ultimately take us up to the 10400-10500 range. You'll notice that we exploded nicely out of the ending diagonal to form wave a. I am expecting wave b to end in the 10215 area, and wave c to end around Feb 5th - this is the fib time projection where wave 1 = wave 2, and just so happens to be NFP day.
Good call Jamie, my count is similar only I'm counting wave ii as the 1150 high because it gives a better look to the entire 5 wave structure and because the S&P futures failed to make a new high in conjunction with the cash index. Unfortunately with my count it seems that only a 2 day pop would not lend itself to making the entire correction complete, and today's recent decline is looking choppy and corrective so at least one more new high, however slight, looks possible. I would in no way be long here, but I'm personally holding off adding to my shorts to see if this index can rise to fill a gap at the 1116 area, which is also around the 50% fibo level. If the market can even make it that far, I'll add shorts.
The US dollar is poised to surge against the majors according to this morning's action so it's very possible the stock market just formed a top. If so, look out below, this next decline will be a doozy!
let's see..either way, should be an interesting end to the week. we'll either head lower in a 3 or higher in a c. one thing though, i see that the front month s&p did indeed make a new high at 1147.
Jamie Saettele is the author of Daily Technicals, Currency Crosses, and COT on DailyFX.com. He is also the author of the recently published Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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Originally Posted by fazi 
