There is always the opportunity for a trend change and I am willing to accept the fact that I will sell one too many times in this strong move down. But in the meantime, this pair has offered some of the best trading opportunities since April of 2009 so it has paid to sell all rallies up to resistance. This is trend trading at it's best and it is more profitable to stay with the trend than it is to assume that a change is imminent. Trends in the FX markets can last for years and hopefully, this is one of those moves.
This looks like an ending diagonal on the daily. If it is, the trend will be changing soon.
Last edited by crossroads; 02-15-2010 at 05:38 PM.
A very clear 5 wave impulse pattern to the down side coming off recent highs, signalling bearish continuation... ----- Bears should be all over this
Bears should be building short positions in CAD/JPY.. Yesterday I showed the clear 5 wave decline in place on the daily chart signalling bearish continuation... Today I'm posting the 4 hour chart with a little speculation for the shorter time frame....
Wave "A" of the correction should be coming to an end shortly....
Bears should be building short positions in CAD/JPY.. Yesterday I showed the clear 5 wave decline in place on the daily chart signalling bearish continuation... Today I'm posting the 4 hour chart with a little speculation for the shorter time frame....
Wave "A" of the correction should be coming to an end shortly....
I was looking at the same thing Brad. If wave B retraces roughly 61.8% of wave A then wave C will equal A right around the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline, which as you pointed out will be around 87.25-87.50.
While I agree with you about trading with the trend, I must say that it would be hard to do money managment on this pair with 6.xx to 7.xx pip spread at FXCM at normal trading hours.
It really is relative to how much you are risking and looking for in profit potential. I trade on the hourly or 4-hour chart in the direction of the trend on the daily chart. That means I typically have a risk of 150 to 200 pips on each trade while looking for at least 400 pips in potential profit. So a spread of six or seven or even 10 pips has little influence on the profitability of my trade.
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Bears should be building short positions in CAD/JPY.. Yesterday I showed the clear 5 wave decline in place on the daily chart signalling bearish continuation... Today I'm posting the 4 hour chart with a little speculation for the shorter time frame....
Wave "A" of the correction should be coming to an end shortly....
Thanks for the update Brad. I saw the daily charts earlier today and was going to respond then but the holiday made it a bit challenging to do so. The five wave is nice and clear and I am targeting the 61.8% area for a short entry longer term and may try a "b" wave short but will probably sit that out since corrections usually bite me back. Theoretically if "b" follows guidlines it should drop to around the 84.00 level before beginning "c".
I will be keeping an eye out though since I am concerned that wave 2 price may reach the 90 area for a double top and close the gap which I posted a month ago from a 30 minute chart. The charts I am using do not go that far back now but I have attached the January chart showing the gap as well.
Thanks for the update Brad. I saw the daily charts earlier today and was going to respond then but the holiday made it a bit challenging to do so. The five wave is nice and clear and I am targeting the 61.8% area for a short entry longer term and may try a "b" wave short but will probably sit that out since corrections usually bite me back. Theoretically if "b" follows guidlines it should drop to around the 84.00 level before beginning "c".
I will be keeping an eye out though since I am concerned that wave 2 price may reach the 90 area for a double top and close the gap which I posted a month ago from a 30 minute chart. The charts I am using do not go that far back now but I have attached the January chart showing the gap as well.
Thanks again for the update.
I'm thinking CAD/JPY price will stay under 88.67 and end up heading lower... I guess we'll see how it plays out..... I'll be keeping an eye on this.....
It's a shame you didn't stick with your EUR/CAD short position... Price dropped like a rock from your entry level last month...
I'm thinking CAD/JPY price will stay under 88.67 and end up heading lower... I guess we'll see how it plays out..... I'll be keeping an eye on this.....
It's a shame you didn't stick with your EUR/CAD short position... Price dropped like a rock from your entry level last month...
Kicked myself for exiting that one. But hey I made 150 pips or so and as you say forex is opportunity central so now on to the next one.
EUR/CAD Update chart...... Nearing the target 2000+ pips ---- Very Nice... Patience is about to pay off once again
Looks as if price needed to close a gap first before continuing on its trek to your 1.40 target. Gap is now closed so lets see if it heads lower or if we have a bigger correction for bears to enter.
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Originally Posted by Thomas Long
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2000+ pips ---- Very Nice... Patience is about to pay off once again 
True... Opportunity is never far in opportunity centraL 
