Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

USD/CAD broke out to the up side today as expected, signalling a multi-year bottom is in place..

BuLLs are now in control

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

A lot of the JPY crosses take their queues from stock indexes, etc. sometimes.

Don't you think it's more like the stock indexes take their queue from the JPY crosses??

If I was head of that trading desk and I just found out my 16bln order crashed the market.....you better believe id be loading up on puts and selling calls before market close today as everything recovers.....

because tomorrow I accidentally hit the 50bln sell button.

Originally Posted by speculator84

Don't you think it's more like the stock indexes take their queue from the JPY crosses??

If I was head of that trading desk and I just found out my 16bln order crashed the market.....you better believe id be loading up on puts and selling calls before market close today as everything recovers.....

because tomorrow I accidentally hit the 50bln sell button.

I think at any one time, one market can lead another but I don't think that one always leads the other.

This isn't yet the end (corresponding to this wave count). Two days ago I posted a new count of the EUR$. Until now it "behaved" this way.... The shorter time frame picture shows the huge overthrow at the end of a ending diagonal at lower degree (wave 5 orange to complete wave 3 green) which happened at the same moment stocks came all down like a coconut from a tree... Corresponding to this count it can be expected still more downward movement to complete this long fifth (blue).

Daily chart


Same on the 4h


Shorter time frime showing the overthrow of the ending diagonal at lower degree to complete wave 3 green (at the same time DOW, DAX, CAC and Swiss Market Index fell)

Originally Posted by 10frank01

This isn't yet the end (corresponding to this wave count). Two days ago I posted a new count of the EUR$. Until now it "behaved" this way.... The shorter time frame picture shows the huge overthrow at the end of a ending diagonal at lower degree (wave 5 orange to complete wave 3 green) which happened at the same moment stocks came all down like a coconut from a tree... Corresponding to this count it can be expected still more downward movement to complete this long fifth (blue).

Daily chart


Same on the 4h


Shorter time frime showing the overthrow of the ending diagonal at lower degree to complete wave 3 green (at the same time DOW, DAX, CAC and Swiss Market Index fell)

That is the same count I have. If this is all of wave 5 of three then the 38.2 retracement is at 1.2840.

DOW JONES MONTHLY CHART -------------->

On May 6 2010, we experienced extremely volatile market conditions across all financial markets.

We would like to give you a summary of what occurred to explain the reasons behind today’s market volatility.

First, institutions were very cautious due to tomorrow’s UK Elections, US Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Canadian unemployment rate announcement.

In addition to that we had several market moving events. These include:

7:45 ET – European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

8:30 ET – Trichet speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference

14:46 – Dow dropped almost 1,000 points and the bulk of the drop happened in less than an hour. The reason behind this drop was reported to be that Citi Bank’s trading desk accidentally sold 16 billion US Dollars worth of e-minis, when they were supposed to sell 16 Million.

After the big drop, two Fed officials came out with back to back announcements to help stabilize the market.

15:04 – Report that Fed’s Hoenig states that tomorrow’s jobs report will be positive

15:06 - Report that Fed’s Evans sees 3.5% economic growth in the US this year

Over the recent months, there has been a strong correlation between the US stock markets and the Japanese Yen. When the Dow plunged today, so did the Japanese Yen crosses. We saw JPY crosses drop between 350 (USD/JPY) and 1248 (GBP/JPY) points. We saw comparable volatility in non Yen crosses as well.

As a result most major banks that provide liquidity to the currency market turned off their FX price feeds for up to 30 minutes. This led to rejected and hanging orders for many FX traders. During this time FXCM immediately routed orders to any remaining banks, however FXCM clients were still subject to the thin liquidity and poor execution being provided by the market.

Market volatility and liquidity has returned to close to normal levels. However, there are still some major market moving events coming up tomorrow so manage your market exposure accordingly.

While FXCM cannot make any overriding statement on adjustments to positions that were negatively affected by today’s events, if you would like us to look into one or more of your trades, please submit an audit form through this link Audit Form and our audit committee will follow up with you as soon as possible.

perhaps this is a triangle

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

On May 6 2010, we experienced extremely volatile market conditions across all financial markets.

We would like to give you a summary of what occurred to explain the reasons behind today’s market volatility.

First, institutions were very cautious due to tomorrow’s UK Elections, US Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Canadian unemployment rate announcement.

In addition to that we had several market moving events. These include:

7:45 ET – European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

8:30 ET – Trichet speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference

14:46 – Dow dropped almost 1,000 points and the bulk of the drop happened in less than an hour. The reason behind this drop was reported to be that Citi Bank’s trading desk accidentally sold 16 billion US Dollars worth of e-minis, when they were supposed to sell 16 Million.

After the big drop, two Fed officials came out with back to back announcements to help stabilize the market.

15:04 – Report that Fed’s Hoenig states that tomorrow’s jobs report will be positive

15:06 - Report that Fed’s Evans sees 3.5% economic growth in the US this year

Over the recent months, there has been a strong correlation between the US stock markets and the Japanese Yen. When the Dow plunged today, so did the Japanese Yen crosses. We saw JPY crosses drop between 350 (USD/JPY) and 1248 (GBP/JPY) points. We saw comparable volatility in non Yen crosses as well.

As a result most major banks that provide liquidity to the currency market turned off their FX price feeds for up to 30 minutes. This led to rejected and hanging orders for many FX traders. During this time FXCM immediately routed orders to any remaining banks, however FXCM clients were still subject to the thin liquidity and poor execution being provided by the market.

Market volatility and liquidity has returned to close to normal levels. However, there are still some major market moving events coming up tomorrow so manage your market exposure accordingly.

While FXCM cannot make any overriding statement on adjustments to positions that were negatively affected by today’s events, if you would like us to look into one or more of your trades, please submit an audit form through this link Audit Form and our audit committee will follow up with you as soon as possible.

Thanks for the update on todays interesting session Sean.

Originally Posted by Gizmo

Thanks for the update on todays interesting session Sean.

You're welcome.

Now that I've put out the statement from FXCM...I'd like to add on to what they had said (from my own perspective).

The NYSE and NASDAQ had errors and order issues.

Electronic Trading to Blame for Plunge, NYSE Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Computerized trades sent to electronic networks turned an orderly stock market decline into a rout today, according to Larry Leibowitz, the chief operating officer of NYSE Euronext.

While the first half of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 998.5-point plunge probably reflected normal trading, the selloff snowballed because of orders sent to venues with no investors willing to match them, Leibowitz said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Nasdaq to Cancel U.S. Trades That Moved More Than 60% (Update1) Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. said it will cancel stock trades on all exchanges that were more than 60 percent above or below prices at 2:40 p.m. New York time, just before U.S. equities plummeted.

I believe the first 1/2 of trading earlier today was over Greek fears. For instance, Here's something Japan just announced that they are doing right now:

Bank of Japan Pumps 2 Trillion Yen Into System on Greek Crisis The Bank of Japan said it will pump 2 trillion yen ($21.8 billion) into the financial system after the Greek debt crisis caused instability in financial markets in the U.S. and Europe.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

You're welcome.

Now that I've put out the statement from FXCM...I'd like to add on to what they had said (from my own perspective).

The NYSE and NASDAQ had errors and order issues.

Electronic Trading to Blame for Plunge, NYSE Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Computerized trades sent to electronic networks turned an orderly stock market decline into a rout today, according to Larry Leibowitz, the chief operating officer of NYSE Euronext.

debt crisis caused instability in financial markets in the U.S. and Europe.

1,000 point dip in 15 mins in stocks today ....

makes the Stock Market crash of 1929 look like a walk in the park


=========================================

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

1,000 point dip in 15 mins in stocks today ....

makes the Stock Market crash of 1929 look like a walk in the park


=========================================

Here is a chart of the 1929 Stock Market crash

- - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

You're welcome.

Now that I've put out the statement from FXCM...I'd like to add on to what they had said (from my own perspective).

The NYSE and NASDAQ had errors and order issues.

Electronic Trading to Blame for Plunge, NYSE Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Computerized trades sent to electronic networks turned an orderly stock market decline into a rout today, according to Larry Leibowitz, the chief operating officer of NYSE Euronext.

While the first half of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 998.5-point plunge probably reflected normal trading, the selloff snowballed because of orders sent to venues with no investors willing to match them, Leibowitz said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

Nasdaq to Cancel U.S. Trades That Moved More Than 60% (Update1) Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. said it will cancel stock trades on all exchanges that were more than 60 percent above or below prices at 2:40 p.m. New York time, just before U.S. equities plummeted.

I believe the first 1/2 of trading earlier today was over Greek fears. For instance, Here's something Japan just announced that they are doing right now:

Bank of Japan Pumps 2 Trillion Yen Into System on Greek Crisis The Bank of Japan said it will pump 2 trillion yen ($21.8 billion) into the financial system after the Greek debt crisis caused instability in financial markets in the U.S. and Europe.

Thanks Sean;

You may be correct in what caused the rout today. But, we should be concentrating on the longer term. The prospects are not good. We may get a bounce over the next 2-3 days along with more volatility. However, the bigger picture is down.

Big Mike and I pointed out topping patterns this past week. I thought we had a head and shoulders top in the Dow. My initial target was 10,500 this week with a bounce on Friday and Monday. Therefore, I believe today's move is overdone.

I am not rejoicing. The long term implications, in my view, is Dow 7350; S&P 780 when and if the trend reverses and; Nasdaq at 1560. The good news is the S&P still has not signaled a trend reversal.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Here is a chart of the 1929 Stock Market crash

- - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Market;

Interesting chart. From April 1930 to December 1, 1930, the DOW dropped nearly 47%. A similar percentage drop would equate to a DOW target of 6025 by the end of the year and around 1500 at the bottom.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Thanks Sean;

You may be correct in what caused the rout today. But, we should be concentrating on the longer term. The prospects are not good. We may get a bounce over the next 2-3 days along with more volatility. However, the bigger picture is down.

Big Mike and I pointed out topping patterns this past week. I thought we had a head and shoulders top in the Dow. My initial target was 10,500 this week with a bounce on Friday and Monday. Therefore, I believe today's move is overdone.

I am not rejoicing. The long term implications, in my view, is Dow 7350; S&P 780 when and if the trend reverses and; Nasdaq at 1560. The good news is the S&P still has not signaled a trend reversal.

Good Luck.

Yeah, it would not surprise me if stocks top out and head lower overall soon because there's too much debt...too much in taxes coming...the sentiment is bad and so is the unemployment rate. Lending still isn't quite what it should be etc. So as soon as the government's influence wears off and it solely rests on the backs of consumers again, it could very well head lower again.