Actually Mywavez has a very good reason for his opinion if you have followed along over the past few months and read bit of Gann theory that was posted. My observation is just based on the way I interpret the charts and waves and it would seem you have a similar view.
I have edited my original post to show EWI's comparison they posted in January of the 1929 crash era as compared to today and have posted it again below for you to see. However if you go back 1 page to my original post you will see all 4 charts which are the 1901 - 1910 & 2000 - 2010 era posted with the 1929 & 2010 era comparisons directly below.
Actually, there is a similarity. It is that prices declined in 1910 into the second half of the year, July -August. In the 2010 chart prices started declining in May (similar to 1930) and could rally into later this year similar to 1910.
I have been reading some Gann but, what is more fascinating to me is the natural occurrence of cycles and the way Elliot patterns show up in those cycles.
I find it interesting that the EURO$ ended an 11 week cycle bottom that concluded a 66 week cycle with an ending diagonal on the weekly chart. Walter Bressert, acknowledged in several of the documents I have read on the subject is the latter expert on the topic. He states that the dominant cycles in the Euro$ are 40 & 20 weeks. I have found the regularly occurring cycles to be about 18 weeks. I believe Gann also used a 7 week cycle. The 66 week cycle would equate to a 60 week cycle with an orb of 10, or 3, 18 week cycles and one 6 week cycle with an orb of 1 week being a Gann 7 week cycle. I could go on with the possible combination's but I am sure you get my point.
The point is, the last time the Euro$ completed an 11 week cycle, it rallied to retrace the down move a little over 78.6%. That would equate to a target of 1.4450, if the same thing happened this time.
I have confirmed cycle turns and Elliott waves in the Gbp$ (posted chart earlier this week), Swissy - down with a H&S pattern on 4 hr chart and, although not as sure on the NZD$ and AUD$. I have a target on the AUD$ of .9998.
I don't have to tell you of the correlation with these currencies and the DOW but, the implication is a move up there also.
I have been working on this all day and will try to work up some charts and post tomorrow.
Glad you posted this. It is consistent with my thoughts on the AUd$. The correction in the AUD$ was only 38.2% of the up move and stopped in wave 4 of 1 less degree.
I know that this is a forex board, but knowledge of all markets I think is good for one to have. Here is my take on the ES 4 hr chart. Looks like we are completing a correction before heading lower right now.
Actually, we do Elliott. Mostly forex. On your chart, there are 2 other possibilities both bullish. The first leg of the correction c/2, could be (A or w) the beginning of a complex correction with x complete and y underway. Your 5 wave down move could be an extended 3 but it could also be an a-b-c with a c wave ED to complete B and C wave underway up.
Actually, we do Elliott. Mostly forex. On your chart, there are 2 other possibilities both bullish. The first leg of the correction c/2, could be (A or w) the beginning of a complex correction with x complete and y underway. Your 5 wave down move could be an extended 3 but it could also be an a-b-c with a c wave ED to complete B and C wave underway up.
Good Luck.
Thanks for your feedback. You are right it could be bullish as well. From the price action and the way my system interprets it I am bearish right now. I have a few targets to the downside some of which break 2010 lows which is why I have chosen to go with the count I present.
Thanks for your feedback. You are right it could be bullish as well. From the price action and the way my system interprets it I am bearish right now. I have a few targets to the downside some of which break 2010 lows which is why I have chosen to go with the count I present.
I'll show my long term Euro$ chart tomorrow. It's a real eye opener. At least it was for me.
Here is my promise kept. It does not look good for the US$ over the next 4-5 years if this plays out as I expect. The Eur$ is in a leading diagonal that should go up to ~1.6710 and then retrace to ~.8614.
The best opportunity to go long should come around Wed of this week in the 1.2100 area. If you look at the hourly chart, you will see that a 3 wave b wave should complete around 1.2433 then the C wave should go to at least 1.2072 to close the gap at 1.2100.
The ED wave 5 should last 4-5 years and at a minimum 34 months.
Here is my promise kept. It does not look good for the US$ over the next 4-5 years if this plays out as I expect. The Eur$ is in a leading diagonal that should go up to ~1.6710 and then retrace to ~.8614.
The best opportunity to go long should come around Wed of this week in the 1.2100 area. If you look at the hourly chart, you will see that a 3 wave b wave should complete around 1.2433 then the C wave should go to at least 1.2072 to close the gap at 1.2100.
The ED wave 5 should last 4-5 years and at a minimum 34 months.
Here is my promise kept. It does not look good for the US$ over the next 4-5 years if this plays out as I expect. The Eur$ is in a leading diagonal that should go up to ~1.6710 and then retrace to ~.8614.
The best opportunity to go long should come around Wed of this week in the 1.2100 area. If you look at the hourly chart, you will see that a 3 wave b wave should complete around 1.2433 then the C wave should go to at least 1.2072 to close the gap at 1.2100.
The ED wave 5 should last 4-5 years and at a minimum 34 months.
Good Luck.
Mounting evidence that a stock market top is in, coupled with very bullish price action and structure for the USD and a full-fledged debt crisis in Europe, suggests to me that odds favour a sustained continuation of the current down move in the Euro.
Mounting evidence that a stock market top is in, coupled with very bullish price action and structure for the USD and a full-fledged debt crisis in Europe, suggests to me that odds favour a sustained continuation of the current down move in the Euro.
Jay, one problem with this very popular H&S is that the right shoulder is rather disproportionally higher than the left shoulder and the neckline is tilting so much upward. I remember reading somewhere that such a pattern is rather weak and might not be a real H&S.
And, it seems that now the bears have become the crowd.
Jay, one problem with this very popular H&S is that the right shoulder is rather disproportionally higher than the left shoulder and the neckline is tilting so much upward. I remember reading somewhere that such a pattern is rather weak and might not be a real H&S.
And, it seems that now the bears have become the crowd.
Hey Franosh,
Yes, in an idealized H&S pattern. Regardless of whether or not the bears are now the crowd, the bottom of that channel looks like a very tempting target. If anything, we make one last push to try for a retest of the center line before the Euro continues on down. My money is on the downside.
Jay, one problem with this very popular H&S is that the right shoulder is rather disproportionally higher than the left shoulder and the neckline is tilting so much upward. I remember reading somewhere that such a pattern is rather weak and might not be a real H&S.
And, it seems that now the bears have become the crowd.
Im going to have to agree here, a really high right shoulder and a sloppy neckline, as far as HnS goes its not very textbook. Actually if you look at the 8hr chart, there is an inverse pretty HnS that is dominating my thoughts on EU as the moment.... I would put a chart up but my comp is tethered through my phone and cant load photobucket atm lol, take a look
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Originally Posted by Gizmo
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