Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by aerocom

Thanks Sean. I dumped half my added position with rest coming off at 1.0650. I got it topping between 1.0657 and 1.0682. See how pattern develops but, I'm thinking like Bignatx.

Good Luck.

Awesome! Glad to hear you're doing so well on it. Way to go.

Originally Posted by ngi000

Hi Sean, and thank you for sharing your valuable outlook on this pair!

I went short on this one at 1.0541, and have my S/L at 1.0561 and T/P at 1.0501 for a 2/1 profit/loss setup. This is nice, but the biggest problem I get as a newbie is always having my S/L hit on a retrace, only to hit my target after that, or setting a target too low and not exploiting more than half of the profit potential. Could you (or anyone else) please comment on my setup and let me know whether I should increase my S/L? I am in with only 1 lot by the way, so a loss of 20-30 pips will not be detrimental to my account - I just want to make sure that this stop-loss serves its role of preventing a loss on a reversal and not being too low so that it would get hit on a small bounce up. But again, I guess that this is the dilemma of all traders...

EDIT:
Nevermind, my stop got hit, so I am out of this until the morning at least...

But I still have to figure out this S/L business, as my S/L keep getting hit. I guess that getting better at Elliott Wave Theory would help with that. In fact, I just subscribed to the EWI's intraday Forex alert service over the weekend, so I hope that this helps me to develop better skills, which will in turn allow me to start contributing to this trend as well, hopefully. And by the way, I do not really feel that EWI guys' analysis and charts is in any way superior to your analysis, people...

So keep up the good work and have a happy remainder of the day trading!

ngi, you're welcome. Yes, in my opinion the stop is set wayyyy too tight. Choose to use fewer lots and wider stops. The number of lots is your biggest determiner/multiplier of losses anyway.

Originally Posted by Sean Hyman

ngi, you're welcome. Yes, in my opinion the stop is set wayyyy too tight. Choose to use fewer lots and wider stops. The number of lots is your biggest determiner/multiplier of losses anyway.

I knew that something was wrong with my S/L...
Thank you for pointing that out!
OK, I will aim for better success tomorrow!

Have a good remainder of the day, everyone!

Originally Posted by ngi000

I knew that something was wrong with my S/L...
Thank you for pointing that out!
OK, I will aim for better success tomorrow!

Have a good remainder of the day, everyone!

Glad to have helped out.

And it will vary on each pair some. For instance, GBP/JPY (according to the ATR indicator on the daily chart) shows that it trades around 211 pips a day. Well, a 30 pip stop on that one would be very tight for a pair that can move that much in such a short period of time.

But if that were on AUD/CAD for instance, (that trades around 1/2 of that) at 102 pips a day, then a 30 pip stop isn't so "out of line".

Here is what I think is going on with the Euro$. Short-term should bottom today or tomorrow. Wave A was 9 days; wave B has been underway for 7.

Gbp$ is in small b wave triangle. Target should be good for at least 49.69 on the break. Gap at 1.4550



Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Here is what I think is going on with the Euro$. Short-term should bottom today or tomorrow. Wave A was 9 days; wave B has been underway for 7.

Gbp$ is in small b wave triangle. Target should be good for at least 49.69 on the break. Gap at 1.4550

Good Luck.

I can't post a chart right now but agree on my precious Cable. I take it as a diagonal or rising wedge on this last leg up of correction. To target the beginning of the wedge/diagonal would be around the gap level and a bit more.

Aerocom, it would be nice to see more often your cable chart, whenever you have it. Thanks.

Hey anyone following the stock market? I attached my projected count on the S&P cash index. It's not a perfect 5 wave decline, and today's projected 5th wave thrust was done on strong internals similar to its previous wave 3 instead of diverging from it like most 5th waves do. But I still think this count is plausible if we get a sharp rally that at least temporarily reverses today's thrust.

If the count is not correct, I guess the triangle would have to be a series of 1s and 2s, and that would really seem to complicate things for the short term count. Anybody have a current stock market count they want to share?

American-T
Elliott Wave Principle: Stock Market and Forex Analysis

Originally Posted by American Trader

Hey anyone following the stock market? I attached my projected count on the S&P cash index. It's not a perfect 5 wave decline, and today's projected 5th wave thrust was done on strong internals similar to its previous wave 3 instead of diverging from it like most 5th waves do. But I still think this count is plausible if we get a sharp rally that at least temporarily reverses today's thrust.

If the count is not correct, I guess the triangle would have to be a series of 1s and 2s, and that would really seem to complicate things for the short term count. Anybody have a current stock market count they want to share?

American-T
Elliott Wave Principle: Stock Market and Forex Analysis

Thanks, I posted that count the other day. Glad to see someone else thinks the same thing I do.

Originally Posted by American Trader

Hey anyone following the stock market? I attached my projected count on the S&P cash index. It's not a perfect 5 wave decline, and today's projected 5th wave thrust was done on strong internals similar to its previous wave 3 instead of diverging from it like most 5th waves do. But I still think this count is plausible if we get a sharp rally that at least temporarily reverses today's thrust.

If the count is not correct, I guess the triangle would have to be a series of 1s and 2s, and that would really seem to complicate things for the short term count. Anybody have a current stock market count they want to share?

American-T
Elliott Wave Principle: Stock Market and Forex Analysis

Hey AT,

Strong oscillator readings would suggest that your b wave of the triangle is the bottom of wave (i) with a very shallow wxy wave (ii) [where your wave iv is]. That would put us currently in wave i of (iii). I will try and post a chart later. This very shallow retrace is sure to result in a very extended wave (iii). This could get ugly quickly.

This is my strategy for the cable h4 chart

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey AT,

Strong oscillator readings would suggest that your b wave of the triangle is the bottom of wave (i) with a very shallow wxy wave (ii) [where your wave iv is]. That would put us currently in wave i of (iii). I will try and post a chart later. This very shallow retrace is sure to result in a very extended wave (iii). This could get ugly quickly.

Hey Apipintime,

Thanks. Your count does look nice, and you're right....the wave (ii) would be so shallow it would probably mean solid price destruction for stocks in the coming days. I hope you're right! I've been short for a while.

American-T
Elliott Wave Principle: Stock Market and Forex Analysis

EURUSD M15 CHART

Here is my 5 min take on the euro

Originally Posted by Franosh

I can't post a chart right now but agree on my precious Cable. I take it as a diagonal or rising wedge on this last leg up of correction. To target the beginning of the wedge/diagonal would be around the gap level and a bit more.

Aerocom, it would be nice to see more often your cable chart, whenever you have it. Thanks.

Here it is. I too think it is a diagonal. I changed my count from corrective (W-X-Y) to motive. The correction should play out similar to the a-b under the red 1/A.

Thanks.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Here it is. I too think it is a diagonal. I changed my count from corrective (W-X-Y) to motive. The correction should play out similar to the a-b under the red 1/A.

Thanks.

Good Luck.

Hey Aero,

Leading Diagonals cannot take the form of a 5-3-3-3-3.