Agreed! I think JS should find another calling.I have followed his calls for years as an academic exercise. It is one bad calls after the other. The analysis is insightful though but "entry","exit" and "target" calls will be better if performed with a dart and blindfolded.
Nobody gets it right every time... But as long as you've got sound money management in place, you don't have to get it right every time.. It is a traders ability to minimize losses and maximize gains that will determine his or her long term success in trading... As marketwavez always says, it's about your averages over time... It's about cutting your losers quickly and letting your winners run all the way to the bank...
USD/CHF has now invalidated a longer term barrier triangle pattern I have been following for quite some time... Now that the pattern has been invalidated, this pair is looking very solid for further short selling.. I'm not sure exactly what the count should be on the shorter time frame... But I can tell you this much.. With this pair breaking into new multi-month lows, it won't be much longer before it breaks into new yearly lows below 96.45.. There is a large USD decline coming...
The gig is up.. This Goose is cooked..!
I'm looking for a drop to test long term fibonacci support at .9045 and a recovery rally from there...
Keeping a sharp eye on the upper descending channel line on the daily chart... Price must stay below it to keep the bearish bias intact.
1.6605 is the minimum down side target to create equality among waves 1 and 5.... Equality should be expected given the clearly extended 3rd wave...
We had a little dispute last week about EUR/NZD. You were bearish; I was bullish. Nevertheless, I promised to take a short position at 1.8145. I chickened out. Are you still bearish? Because the short just got cheaper.
What I just did is: I took one of those fibonacci fan lines from the March 8, 2009 top to the 23 June 2010 bottom. The pair just busted out of the 23.6% fib channel line and it's testing first horizontal resistance @ 1.8311. I feel queasy about that line because of the higher low from which this assault is originating and because the markets are entering into definitive seasonal trends in which I believe the Euro will resume preeminent status.
Higher horizontal resistance lines are visible @ 1.8437 and 1.8865. I feel a lot better about the higher level for a short because the 1.8865 line originated from a (14 MAY 2010) low which was at the same level from which this most recent (13SEP2010) low came. Ie. It would be treating this as a range trade within a box that is quite wide and pip rich.
What is the play here? Do I wait for it to fall back to the TL and go long there? Or do I sell here?
We had a little dispute last week about EUR/NZD. You were bearish; I was bullish. Nevertheless, I promised to take a short position at 1.8145. I chickened out. Are you still bearish? Because the short just got cheaper.
What I just did is: I took one of those fibonacci fan lines from the March 8, 2009 top to the 23 June 2010 bottom. The pair just busted out of the 23.6% fib channel line and it's testing first horizontal resistance @ 1.8311. I feel queasy about that line because of the higher low from which this assault is originating and because the markets are entering into definitive seasonal trends in which I believe the Euro will resume preeminent status.
Higher horizontal resistance lines are visible @ 1.8437 and 1.8865. I feel a lot better about the higher level for a short because the 1.8865 line originated from a (14 MAY 2010) low which was at the same level from which this most recent (13SEP2010) low came. Ie. It would be treating this as a range trade within a box that is quite wide and pip rich.
What is the play here? Do I wait for it to fall back to the TL and go long there? Or do I sell here?
If you're not in it, leave it alone for the time being.. I noted in here months ago the dragonfly doji bullish reversal pattern in place on the monthly chart that had a high probability of reversing the pair upward, and although I tried to fight this mentally for quite some time because the bear trend had been so strong for so long, at this time I must shift my bias to neautral/bullish... The EUR/NZD looks to me like it's trying to climb higher.. Although, I don't think I could be persuaded to go long the pair, it's still far too ugly for my liking...
Her is my update on the S&P. The count is changed slightly. It is similar to one that was posted by Grega.
Is the wave 3 as marked or is it an extended wave 3 that ends at 1150? If it is an extended wave 3, expect a corrective move to close the gap. Then back up. Extensions retrace twice.
Both the NYSE and SPX bullish percent indicate the top is near but, both are indicating more upside into the 60 - 65 range. The SPX bp is leading and nearer to the top. I used the principle of wave equality and labeled the bullish percent up move as corrective c=a.
Good Luck
Last edited by aerocom; 09-23-2010 at 01:04 AM.
Reason: Clarity
If you're not in it, leave it alone for the time being.. I noted in here months ago the dragonfly doji bullish reversal pattern in place on the monthly chart that had a high probability of reversing the pair upward, and although I tried to fight this mentally for quite some time because the bear trend had been so strong for so long, at this time I must shift my bias to neautral/bullish... The EUR/NZD looks to me like it's trying to climb higher.. Although, I don't think I could be persuaded to go long the pair, it's still far too ugly for my liking...
Looks to me like we are reaching a crucial point in this pair. Regarding the above trendline drawn on the monthly chart, zooming in to the daily chart the market does seem to be respecting it, capping the upward move of the pair in mid July. Yesterday the pair broke well above its daily descending trendline that had provided resistance since July. The market had been stalling in recent weeks around the 61.8 Fib of the 1.8862 high to 1.7179 low move from 21st May to 23rd June 2010.
The 78 Fib comes in at 1.8462, which happens to be very close to the original trendline drawn on the monthly chart. Just above this we have the 161.8 projection of the recent 1.7359 to 1.8112, which i make 1.8577, and also the 200 SMA at 1.8622. These are four potential areas of resistance in close proximity to each other.
Therefore, until these levels are cleared, i would be reluctant to be bullish, and i think the 1.8450 area will be of interest. I will place a short at this area should the market test said area and close below, obviously a decent size stop required with a reduced position on this pair
All the best, all criticisms welcome,
Missing.
USD/CHF has now invalidated a longer term barrier triangle pattern I have been following for quite some time... Now that the pattern has been invalidated, this pair is looking very solid for further short selling.. I'm not sure exactly what the count should be on the shorter time frame... But I can tell you this much.. With this pair breaking into new multi-month lows, it won't be much longer before it breaks into new yearly lows below 96.45.. There is a large USD decline coming...
The gig is up.. This Goose is cooked..!
I'm looking for a drop to test long term fibonacci support at .9045 and a recovery rally from there...
Although USD/CHF has broken a key support level I have been watching at .9909 I must note that the market currently looks heavily over sold and there is a high possibility of a relief rally.. Keeping that in mind, I'm really wondering if we've got a large skewed triangle pattern taking place on the monthly chart.. Keep your eyes on this one.. There could be a medium to longer term bullish opportunity lurking in the shadows...
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Originally Posted by ntiwa1
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GBP/USD.H4,Update
