Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by rrichardson

I'm new to Elliott Wave analysis, so please tell me if I"m off base here.
Also apologies if this is a reiteration of a previous post, but I haven't seen such in the recent past.

Is the current AUD/USD getting ready to wrap up a simple Impulse?
By my guess, it looks like the 5 wave will top off at .96998 and we'll our first correction at .93000.

Thoughts?

Attachment 68131

That impulse count seems to fit the AUD/USD market pretty good.. But this pair is a bit too strong for me, I wouldn't be looking to short the market just yet.. Give it some more patience to carve out a defined top before shorting...


I noticed a little overlap of waves 1 and 4 here on the daily chart... Some would say that negates the count.. I would argue that the overlap was very brief and the count need not be altered..

In highly leveredged markets a little overlap is allowed...

I believe you are on the right path looking for short opportunities with this pair soaring to extreme multi-year highs ----

Cable looks like it's about to start ripping into the up side again...

Not sure if I trust in or not though...

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I'm not sure where this count fits in with the bigger picture, but from looking at fibonacci measurements on the long term chart, as well as wave progression, and candlesticks, I can make a good case for a further 900 pip drop in price to test long term fibonacci support at 1.5592, and possibly lower...

This is one nasty bear trend that keeps dropping like a rock, and there is no sign of a candlestick reversal yet, which leaves me to believe there's more down side to be had...

Watch for this pair to drop further in October with bears eye-balling 1.5592 initially ..

I'm not sure if this wave "A" looks better as an ABC-X-ABC pattern, or the impulse I have labelled.. Either way, I still believe it is a large wave "A", thanks to the thrust in wave "B" ....

Wave "C" appears to be in the final stages of completion with the market needing to achieve one more low to complete wave 5 of "C" ....

I continue to look for a candlestick reversal to confirm an end to the bear trend, but so far it's not there, leaving bears in full control of the market...

Here's the daily chart of GBP/AUD ---->

Looking for a possible pullback towards 1.7000 to load short positions...

Zooming way out on the monthly chart of USD/CHF.. I can see why FXCM has recommended staying short this pair through upcoming trade..

It does look like the bears will have more sway at this juncture...

Originally Posted by rrichardson

I'm new to Elliott Wave analysis, so please tell me if I"m off base here.
Also apologies if this is a reiteration of a previous post, but I haven't seen such in the recent past.

Is the current AUD/USD getting ready to wrap up a simple Impulse?
By my guess, it looks like the 5 wave will top off at .96998 and we'll our first correction at .93000.

Thoughts?

Attachment 68131

Hey rrichardson here is a different view, i posted this chart on twitter a couple weeks ago, Ted Rojahn (impulsewaver) on Twitter

Originally Posted by rrichardson

I'm new to Elliott Wave analysis, so please tell me if I"m off base here.
Also apologies if this is a reiteration of a previous post, but I haven't seen such in the recent past.

Is the current AUD/USD getting ready to wrap up a simple Impulse?
By my guess, it looks like the 5 wave will top off at .96998 and we'll our first correction at .93000.

Thoughts?

Attachment 68131

Hi, I am new to it also. I'm probably being pedantic here but I noticed an overlap of W4/W1. Only very slight, perhaps doesn't invalidate it?
I think I recall someone saying that in highly leveraged markets a slight overlap is ok.
For me, in doing wave counts the main difficulty is in locating exact wave endings. I believe it is not always the price extreme that determines the wave ending.
Thoughts welcome.

Originally Posted by surreyhills

Hi, I am new to it also. I'm probably being pedantic here but I noticed an overlap of W4/W1. Only very slight, perhaps doesn't invalidate it?
I think I recall someone saying that in highly leveraged markets a slight overlap is ok.
For me, in doing wave counts the main difficulty is in locating exact wave endings. I believe it is not always the price extreme that determines the wave ending.
Thoughts welcome.

I really don't think that a "slight" encroachment can be reconciled to any impulsive wave theory. A movement that falls back within the zone of its precedent is not a motive wave. A backfill encroachment means that people weren't confident enough of the advance to leave their money on the table. That's corrective consolidation.

Correction coming, but when?

on a 4h waiting for a pull-back


on 30min..final push to come?!



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twitter

Usd/Cad

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So for all the longer term euro bears, where do you think this baby is going to top at. If the count is correct, it will be a doozy of a shorting opportunity.

American-T

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Usd/Cad

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I have the same charts on my PC. Im glad im on the same page with you

I will prolly buy at the lower trend line with stops below 1.01, any bump up will let me place S/L at B/E, in an attempt to reduce risk

Good Luck

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Zooming way out on the monthly chart of USD/CHF.. I can see why FXCM has recommended staying short this pair through upcoming trade..

It does look like the bears will have more sway at this juncture...

I am a follower of this track... I just wish it retraces a bit for me to enter. The fact its oversold at the moment, will cause such a retracement ASAP i think

Good Luck...

Originally Posted by American Trader

So for all the longer term euro bears, where do you think this baby is going to top at. If the count is correct, it will be a doozy of a shorting opportunity.

American-T

Hello American Trader! I agree with the price projections of Jamie Saettele, the Sr. Technical Strategist at DailyFX. I have reposted his chart and a link to his analysis below.

Euro Nearing Fibonacci Confluence

Originally Posted by jsgehrke

I really don't think that a "slight" encroachment can be reconciled to any impulsive wave theory. A movement that falls back within the zone of its precedent is not a motive wave. A backfill encroachment means that people weren't confident enough of the advance to leave their money on the table. That's corrective consolidation.

Right, that was my first inclination. However, I don't think I was being creative enough and I took advantage of leniency to shoehorn the form where it shouldn't have been. I think shootinpips' chart better matches the criteria.

In addition it provides more evidence for the next move once C completes. I am quite interested to see how it plays out.

Originally Posted by Auditt05

I have the same charts on my PC. Im glad im on the same page with you

I will prolly buy at the lower trend line with stops below 1.01, any bump up will let me place S/L at B/E, in an attempt to reduce risk

Good Luck

you are not on the same page as me , or anyone else because ,

- like all the other charts in here you don't know where the entry
is going to be for me or many of the other chart posts in here

basically, it is your entry price and target prices that puts you on the same page as someone else

so having the same or similar charts on your pc doesn't really put you on the same page ,
because you are only comparing charts without knowing where the entry is going to be
and without knowing if the direction is bullish or bearish

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Chart Patterns , Trendlines , and Elliott Waves formations by themselves will not tell you where to enter
because they are only a guide to help you decide where to enter and to give you an idea where to exit

after deciding on a wave-count or a chart pattern that you like ,
even if your chart is similar to someone Else's chart
( then comes the hard part ,,,,, which is where to enter )

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( to master Forex trading is to master Money Management , and to be confident in your trading decisions )


also
look around in here and take notice that most people
don't post their entry on their charts , and why should they anyway ? ---------

always remember that ---- everyone enters the market differently
based on their own money management rules they have set for themselves
( this is the reason why you are not on the same page as me or anyone else )

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simply put ,
most people in here are posting charts and comparing charts , just like you are ,,,,

this is the basic reason for having forums like this , which is mainly a place to exchange chart ideas

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