EUR/USD 5-minute Chart Wave 4 Termination Bounce on Progress
With deepest respect I don't think an 80% retracement in Wave 2 and 61.8% retracement of the entire move from the start to the end of Wave 3 (as Wave 4) quite fits into alternation...
I would personally count the 1.2904 low as a Wave (x) and where you have Wave 3 as Wave (a) and the pullback as Wave (c). In the bigger picture, since the decline from 1.3433 has seen no deep retracement (Wave 2 or 4 tend to have a retracement close to 50%) until this point the chance favors this as a pullback in Wave 4. With the structure being unclear on the way down I have attempted to retrospectively identify where this may lie and feel it is between 1.3051-84...(what I feel maybe a 50%-58.6% pullback.) This implies a 123.6%-161.8% projection in Wave (c).
However, retrospectively fitting is not the way I prefer to identify retracements is not my preferred way of doing things!
With deepest respect I don't think an 80% retracement in Wave 2 and 61.8% retracement of the entire move from the start to the end of Wave 3 (as Wave 4) quite fits into alternation...
I would personally count the 1.2904 low as a Wave (x) and where you have Wave 3 as Wave (a) and the pullback as Wave (c). In the bigger picture, since the decline from 1.3433 has seen no deep retracement (Wave 2 or 4 tend to have a retracement close to 50%) until this point the chance favors this as a pullback in Wave 4. With the structure being unclear on the way down I have attempted to retrospectively identify where this may lie and feel it is between 1.3051-84...(what I feel maybe a 50%-58.6% pullback.) This implies a 123.6%-161.8% projection in Wave (c).
However, retrospectively fitting is not the way I prefer to identify retracements is not my preferred way of doing things!
Hey! Great to see a harmonic EW structure... and not a bad effort. The big problem with this was actually trying to identify the Wave (i) and (ii)... There were so many wriggles it was pretty tough. Once the low was confirmed (which was actually at 1.2859 in early Australasian time on Monday morning - not shown on many brokers) I had to try and back fit...
This is what I tentatively looked at:
The reasoning was three-fold. Firstly I wanted to find an ABC for Wave (i) with a "normal" Wave c projection. This Wave c was 85.4% of Wave a. Then the wave (iii) had to be a "normal" projection of Wave (i) - generally between 176.4%-198.4%. This should also see the Wave (c) of Wave (iii) with a "normal" projection...
In my count (and I'm still not 100% confident on it - though the high in Wave (iv) we've seen looks good) the Wave (iii) was 171% - so not great (but 166.7% is a possibility) and Wave (c) was a 169.7% projection so within striking distance of 166.7% also...
The wave (ii) being a shallow 14.6% would imply through alternation a pullback between 50% and 58.6%. 50% was at 1.3051... so 6 pips above today's high.
What can happen in the Harmonic structure is that the Wave (b) of Wave (iii) can have an impact also (in this case not so) and therefore it's possible that Wave (b) of Wave (v) may well be deep instead...
The projections in Wave (v) based on what we've seen would be at:
61.8% 1.2690
66.7% 1.2662
76.4% 1.2606
One small risk is that we may be seeing a Wave (c) decline now and not Wave -a- of Wave -iii- (both require a 5-wave move) and the 161.8% projection in Wave (c) is at 1.2716 and we may need to consider the 166.7% at 1.2695 (close to the 61.8% projection) and the 176.4% at 1.2652 - so just below the 66.7% projection.
We'll have to watch for the Wave (c) of Wave (v) projections and the Wave v of Wave (c) projections to fine-tune the target...
brad, ace nailing.. congrats on your trades (gbpcad, eurnzd, well and the other we dont know)
u've been posting cadjpy count for so long now..3d wave's arrow - beauty. :'D
Now regarding aussie I'm not sure how deep the pulback might be but here is an idea. The alternative is the recent up move was wave -c- of expanded flat correction. Either way shorts are preffered at the moment.
Greeting Elliotticians!- Need some Feedback on the Chart
Greeting Elliotticians!- Need some Feedback on this chart that was emailed to me from a gentleman from Poland. I will send him to the thread to read your responses! Thanks for your help.
Tomek writes:
Welcome
I liveinPoland,I am interested inElliotwavesand thegeometry
whatdo you thinkabout thisbehaviorrateeur/usd
have a nice daywaitingfora response
Tomek
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Not that good at EW so I'll leave that to the Elliott guys; although at one glance there seems to be many rule breaks in this count... I don't have a working count on this pair so can't offer an alternative.
Regarding the yellow triangles, it seems like Tomek is considering the possibility of a big bullish Gartley down the road... While it is fun to speculate halfway in their formation, we only have the left wing finished (and that is, if point B holds) so I would wait until the BC leg is formed before starting to get excited.
Not that good at EW so I'll leave that to the Elliott guys; although at one glance there seems to be many rule breaks in this count... I don't have a working count on this pair so can't offer an alternative.
Regarding the yellow triangles, it seems like Tomek is considering the possibility of a big bullish Gartley down the road... While it is fun to speculate halfway in their formation, we only have the left wing finished (and that is, if point B holds) so I would wait until the BC leg is formed before starting to get excited.
Good effort though
Thank for that!
Trader, Gregory McLeod moderates the DailyFX Forum.
If you are a new user to the DailyFX Forum, or not sure where to get started, please go to: How To use the DailyFX Forum and Introduce Yourself! Section. I’ll introduce you to the community and point you in the right direction.
Please use the “Ask the expert” section to ask me trading questions or reply to me in this thread.
Webinar: Watch me Trade Live Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday at 5:30 ET/9:30 GMT inPip & Run Trading Room.
Greeting Elliotticians!- Need some Feedback on this chart that was emailed to me from a gentleman from Poland. I will send him to the thread to read your responses! Thanks for your help.
Tomek writes:
Welcome
I liveinPoland,I am interested inElliotwavesand thegeometry
whatdo you thinkabout thisbehaviorrateeur/usd
have a nice daywaitingfora response
Tomek
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Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod
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