Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Hi Greg;

I just took a look. Here is what I see. US Treasuries are rising and yields in a decline. But, it looks like they both could be in triangles. I have P&F 10 year yield targets of 1.5 and 1.75. The 1.5 target is the oldest and initial target of the current decline. From and elliott standpoint c=a at 3.06.

Targets on the 10 year treasury are 147, 158 and 154. With 147 being the oldest and initial signal of the move up. The last good signal is 154. Therefore, I anticipate the 10 year UST to attain a price of about 154.

Good Luck.

Gold could have quite a way north to go yet... Observe that we have a steep upwards move between the top of 1 (red cercle) and the subwave 3 (black) but there is no divergence at all at the EW-Oscillator. Which is usually a sign that the current up-move is part of a larger third wave and not a fifth... Good luck.

Daily Gold
Attachment 86225


EUR$ more up is likely (see previous post)
EUR$ daily
Attachment 86226

EUR$ detail (2H)
Attachment 86227

Here is the opportunity of the year, well, a probability at least.

Silver will probably pop up again. As I see it, we could be in a correction as labeled below. Good luck.

My gold count.
I am not bullish anymore on gold, I think we will have a top soon and start a long correction. Maybe in a month or so.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Hi Greg;

I just took a look. Here is what I see. US Treasuries are rising and yields in a decline. But, it looks like they both could be in triangles. I have P&F 10 year yield targets of 1.5 and 1.75. The 1.5 target is the oldest and initial target of the current decline. From and elliott standpoint c=a at 3.06.

Targets on the 10 year treasury are 147, 158 and 154. With 147 being the oldest and initial signal of the move up. The last good signal is 154. Therefore, I anticipate the 10 year UST to attain a price of about 154.

Good Luck.

Thanks aerocom! Seems like market may be pricing in an extension of QE2 as price would go down and yields would be heading higher if the opposite were true.

GBP/JPY Daily: Wave 5 in Progress?

Originally Posted by Mywavez

My gold count.
I am not bullish anymore on gold, I think we will have a top soon and start a long correction. Maybe in a month or so.

I agree with you completely. My counts for both Gold and Silver are at a similar stage like yours and I am expecting a large correction. I do give it a little more than a month, maybe until the summer ends.

Originally Posted by DonTirano

I agree with you completely. My counts for both Gold and Silver are at a similar stage like yours and I am expecting a large correction. I do give it a little more than a month, maybe until the summer ends.

Certainly after June according to fed. That's when QE2 ends. My thinking is in the Aug time frame. How about Thur, Aug 11?

Good Luck.

This is a cyclical study I did on the EURO.
It is composed of the 10, 4, 2, 1 and 1/2 year cycle.
The shorter term cycles all bottomed when eurusd hit 1.2875.
On the EW count I have 2 counts. Both bullish. The X wave is the best scenario for the dollar. However, we could very well see the dollar slide well into 2012. In that case there will be serious consequences. China is already diversifying its dollar portfolio, and today the FED did not listen.
Hopefully someone will be fiscally responsible and we can stop this slide, if not I see hard times for the US come 2012/13. Key value for the US$ on the Index is 70.

Originally Posted by Mywavez

This is a cyclical study I did on the EURO.
It is composed of the 10, 4, 2, 1 and 1/2 year cycle.
The shorter term cycles all bottomed when eurusd hit 1.2875.
On the EW count I have 2 counts. Both bullish. The X wave is the best scenario for the dollar. However, we could very well see the dollar slide well into 2012. In that case there will be serious consequences. China is already diversifying its dollar portfolio, and today the FED did not listen.
Hopefully someone will be fiscally responsible and we can stop this slide, if not I see hard times for the US come 2012/13. Key value for the US$ on the Index is 70.

Mywavez,
I am not sure about your W and X. Have you considered looking at it as AB? For the short term I agree that the EUR will gain strength. With the suggestion I made according to the count I am managing we will see the dollar gain some strength back towards the end of this year and probably the start of the next (2012).

Originally Posted by Mywavez

This is a cyclical study I did on the EURO.
It is composed of the 10, 4, 2, 1 and 1/2 year cycle.
The shorter term cycles all bottomed when eurusd hit 1.2875.
On the EW count I have 2 counts. Both bullish. The X wave is the best scenario for the dollar. However, we could very well see the dollar slide well into 2012. In that case there will be serious consequences. China is already diversifying its dollar portfolio, and today the FED did not listen.
Hopefully someone will be fiscally responsible and we can stop this slide, if not I see hard times for the US come 2012/13. Key value for the US$ on the Index is 70.

Actually, it should not be as bad as the last decline. I base my statement on Gann and the 100 year DOW chart. The DOW is a leading indicator of about 6 months. Therefore, if am correct, the decline should begin sometime after mid-year and last until about 2016. The move should unfold in two 3 wave declines. The total of the decline should be about 63% of the decline from 2000. I anticipate a DOW in the area of 9100 at its low. Then a bull market starts. Its the next Bear that will be the killer and, likely the end of dominance for the US.

Good Luck.

The W is a huge WXY scenario that would call for new lows on the Euro. I held that view for a while, but my alternate count is very bullish and would call for a new all time high. I am waiting till the summer to see what will actually most likely unfold. It all comes down to the deficit of the US and how China will respond. US needs to be fiscally responsible and I see signs of that happening.

From the 1999 low till 2008 high could actually be the first leg (A) of a double zigzag (A)(B)(C). The 2008 top till 2010 bottom could be a completed (B) wave, which means we will be looking for wave (C) equally as long as (A). So we could go to 1.98 or so theoretically. But again, it depends on the decisions they will make in Washington and how China will react.

Aerocom: I agree with you except for the killer bear. We should see a slide from '13 till '16 then 7 is a bear, 8 is a bull, 9 is a strong bull and 10 is a bear. However, 2020-2040 we should see great prosperity.
The 19 year business cycle bottomed in 2008. We will now move to normal activity, then above normal activity.
Good luck!
PS Good thinking to take Dow 100 years back. Everything that has happened, will happen again....

Originally Posted by Mywavez

Aerocom: I agree with you except for the killer bear. We should see a slide from '13 till '16 then 7 is a bear, 8 is a bull, 9 is a strong bull and 10 is a bear. However, 2020-2040 we should see great prosperity.
The 19 year business cycle bottomed in 2008. We will now move to normal activity, then above normal activity.
Good luck!
PS Good thinking to take Dow 100 years back. Everything that has happened, will happen again....

Good to see you posting again. Thanks.

Good Luck.