Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

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Originally Posted by ajs71

Here's what I see for USOIL,

Hi, just a follow through of the original post. After looking at this for a while the only way I can explain this (to myself) in realtime is in the following 1H chart:

It appears that the last [c] of the double zigzag is forming an expanding ending diagonal which would complete the (B) of the second of a double zigzag from the March high of 114.80. So far it appears that most of the rules (EWP Frost & Prechter, 20th anniversary edition, p87,p88) for this formation have been met (if my labeling is accurate). So the forecast of around 91 price area is just an application of the rule for this type of diagonal where wave 5 is longer than wave 3 and the guideline that wave 5 usually ends slightly before reaching a line that connects the end of waves 1 and 3 and applying the fibo extension as shown on chart which satisfies the above.

Time will tell... (apologies for the small chart... working on this to make em larger and clearer. To see actual size save as... and open locally..)

Originally Posted by JimboFX

Timewise the count doesn't seem right. Compare your wave (2) estimated end - It would be like 10 x wave (1)

But I do agree on the complex part. It looks like a consolidation is taking place since May. But then after it's over a move higher is expected IMHO. I just don't see a third wave down anytime soon to be honest.



P.S. I posted that count the other day in EUR thread and it's working out as expected so far. Still have some doubts but we might as well have started wave C up

Haha, Thanks Jimmy, I didnt notice that.
just checked book, wave 2 can be 9 times of wave 1. So far 1 is 8 days and 2 is 66 days, there is still hope for the chart

Originally Posted by ngheanfx

Short entry order @ 1.4350, stop 1.4540, risk ratio 3%. A big move ahead, up or down ?

Out of short order, -80pips. Stand aside now.

I know its not strictly FX, but watching other markets especially those linked with "risk on" might be telling us a clue on pairs like AUD/USD

If this is setting up, i think it needs to show it soon as if the next round of selling is near then i suspect European markets like DAX and FTSE get hit in the European session

The AUD/USD pair (and AUD crosses) do seem to be in sync with the ES




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Screenshots of all 3 charts following on from yesterday.

The 2 hr trend band on the first chart has now turned red for down and the pivot at 1.4387 has been met (entered short at 1.4455 last night). The usual set up is for the price now to rise back up to kiss the trend band from the underside which would be yesterday's high at 1.4476 give or take a pip or two. Today's 1st line of resistance re pivots is at 1.4297 which is close enough to the monthly pivot (second chart) of 1.4271. So, my sell for today is 1.4470 down to 1.4275 to keep within the pivot lines. I am however taking a quick long up to the entry zone for short order and will reassess short if pivot line is taken first.

All of this is keeping the downward pressure on the longer term time bands in the third chart which are the monthly and six monthly trend bands. I agree with the last post that markets look ready to tumble. Like to see my short in place first though and will move long to breakeven soon.

s&p and Aussie corrections near completion!?





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Looks like the daily pivot (green line) has set up a straddle (15 min chart). 3 day low is at 1.4148. Will take short at 1.4360 to 1.4148, leaving price on threshold line (see 2hr chart), if rise up to yesterday's high does not come first.

Originally Posted by Nouf-WPT

I know its not strictly FX, but watching other markets especially those linked with "risk on" might be telling us a clue on pairs like AUD/USD

If this is setting up, i think it needs to show it soon as if the next round of selling is near then i suspect European markets like DAX and FTSE get hit in the European session

The AUD/USD pair (and AUD crosses) do seem to be in sync with the ES




Twitter

Great call! I am watching DAX, CAC and FTSE indexes taking a hit now.

Kiss now going on 2hr trend band on the 15 min GBPUSD chart....

Originally Posted by Franosh

Hey, Jay

I've entertained this idea for a while. Fundi-wise, with all the political muddling trying to hold the euro together, it is also more likely to go up than down. How long the Germans and other northern Europeans are willing to take it is a different matter. Plus, Time magazine runs the cover on the death of euro last week. It might be a contrarian indicator too.

the last time they declared euro dead it was 1.18 so i believe it to be a very good contrarian indicator.

EUD/USD bias is short
Forex @ DailyFX - Elliott Wave | Forex Technical Analysis

Waiting to see how it unfolds. Looks increasingly convincing to be a first impulse...

1H

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