Hey guys just want to run this past you, just curious what yall think as to if this is a possibility.
just a note for the 15 min chart it is only showing a possible abc for the possible D of the proposed triangle. I forgot to clean up the labeling before that and it is not my actual count so ignore that area
Last edited by captester; 04-04-2012 at 12:39 PM.
_______________________________ Just cleaning up all the leftover pips
@captester... Here my Silver Count (not Gold sorry, but could be instructive as well). I have still a bullish bias... Good luck!
Note: Silver failed to breach the strong resistance at 33 on a daily basis twice, only intraday success... So quite logical, from a technical point of view, that the correction will make one leg down more before the bulls might again attack the 33 handle and to overcome it... This is why I have a W-X-Y count.
Looking at the big picture it seems quite difficult to arrive with a preferred count considering the counts we have on various currency pairs however presented here are the 3 long term counts I have on this currency pair, the market will indicate which one is the highest probability one as price action unfolds, fortunately they all point south.
This count complements the contracting triangle count that we have on the GBP/USD currency pair both should thrust down in favor of the US dollar. Here are the things I don't like about this count considering that this is a contracting triangle it should have Fibonacci relationships between alternate waves, in this proposed triangle however there are no Fibonacci relationships on arithmatic scale by any of the alternate waves which is fairly strange. This count also contradicts the potentially multi decade turn observed on the USDCHF ofcourse unless these two pairs lose their correlation which seems possible as odds greatly favor the idea of a multi decade turn in the EURCHF as well as the GBP/CHF as will be analyzed in detail later on this blog. so if anything the GBP/USD & EUR/USD have higher odds of maintaining their correlation due to their projected strength against their European peer the CHF. Please excuse me if this is too much to swallow but its just me thinking out loud. However the posts to follow will further clarify this point.
NOTE: This count also contradicts our long term view on US equities that ofcourse if they don't lose thier correlation as seemed evident since the October lows (the EUR falling into January as US equities formed a higher low) or could the decline on the Dow be only of cycle degree as per our alternate count stated on the previous post on the Dow Jones industrial average. (seems unlikely due to economic divergence between the 19th and the 20th century)
This count complements the counts I have on the USDCHF and the USDRUB currency pairs, However there are a handful of things I don't like about this count if intermediate wave (2) is to be considered complete. This second wave came after a 5-3-5-3-5 leading diagonal after which one would expect a strong retracement typically the 78.6% the extreme end of the proposed wave (2) failed to exceed the 38.2% in terms of price, in terms of time however the proposed (2)nd wave peak was about a third of the proposed diagonal wave (1) which is about the minimum I'd accept for 2 waves to be of the same degree, the points stated above makes me keep my mind open that the correction COULD still be in progress if you insist on going short now in fear of missing the move stops shall be above the may 2011 high which is pretty distant but from a risk to reward ratio seems quite appropriate if you aren't heavily leveraged
This count seems possible as well as non of the lower degree second waves broke the (0)-(2) trendline, however this wasn't the case in terms of the USDCHF which makes me a little skeptical of such a count however it calls for a lower stop than the count previously presented which would be above minor wave 2.
On a short term basis the count is a reflection of the counts presented earliar on the USDCHF and GBP/USD bearing in mind that the patterns haven't been confirmed complete yet it seems likely that a top is in, even if it isn't placing stops in an appropriate manner would keep you in the trade from a position trading standpoint however if your are a short term trader using high leverage you may want to be stopped out if prices pop up for one last push before declining substantially, here is an image of the short term count.
Point to note on GOLD and the AUD/USD an elliott wave prespective.
Today was the 8th biggest dollar decline in gold in history, due to the few emails I've gotten about this event, I have decided to write this in depth analytical report. First let us look at the current supercycle in GOLD
It seems evident that the downside risk is huge in terms of this chart alone, let us look at Long term chart of the AUD/USD to make us worry even more ;-)
The high present on the chart above coincided with that high of the primary third wave of cycle wave III of supercycle wave (III), hence it seems logical to speculate, considering the high correlation between this currency pair and the gold market, that the 1974 high on the AUD/USD is the all time high achieved despite the unavailability of data prior to that date. as pointed out on the chart the primary wave 2(circle) rally diverged with the cycle degree peak in gold in 1980, and gold made a higher low in 2001 as this market decline into its final push which signaled a rally to come on the AUD/USD. What we can conclude about these two occurrences is that this currency pair lags the gold market, and significant divergence between both usually indicated a change in trend. Now looking at the current position of the market, Gold broke out above the cycle degree peak of 1980 while the ozzy is still substantially bellow its 1974 peak taking the wave counts into prespective the implications of such a divergence could be fairly catastrophic for both of these markets. Considering the several alternate counts present on the gold market (one which supports the idea that the advance in 2012 was a failure fifth [most likely] or wave 5 still in process), let us take a look at a shorter term ozzy chart to narrow the possibilities.
This happens to be my preferred count supporting the idea of a failure (5)th wave of intermediate degree which terminated the cycle degree correction. On a shorter term basis we either are in the process of an extended 3rd wave of minor degree as visible above or we are forming some sort of expanded flat correction to the upside for our wave 2 of minor degree. Here is my alternate scenerio.
This picture was taken some time ago proposing this count as an alternate, the proposed wave 4 in this alternate has declined further however this alternate count has not been invalidated yet, However improbable this count may seem, it still remains valid until this pair trades bellow 0.9767 which would make wave 4 larger than wave 2 which would break the rules of a contracting diagonal triangle. Looking at this pairs sister, the kiwi my counts are as follows.
The wave (1) decline from the May 2011 high was a 3-3-3-3-3 expanding diagonal. A point to note however wave 5 of that pattern was shorter than wave 3 which is not typical of expanding diagonals however looking at all the other rules and guidelines it seems like the highest probability count. of course an alternate for the 2011 decline would be wave (a) instead of wave (1) however odds greatly favor the labeling visible on the chart above.
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Gold H4 - 04 April 2012
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Originally Posted by stanchiam 
