Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Hi, Ahmed

Thanks for your charts and counts. One thing seems rather puzzling though: if the decline to year 2000 is a wave 1 and all the uptrend in this millenium is wave 2 of some sort, where do you expect this currency to go eventually after wave 5? Aussie dollar was floated only in 1973/74 I think and I am not sure how significant the correlation between gold and aussie is over very long-term. If wave 1 is already at 0.5, there doesn't seem to be much space for it to go on the downside as currencies can't go negative.

Fundamentally speaking, assuming one does not subscribe to the 'all currencies collapse' scenario (even with the Amero scenario, that will be a hard sell world-wide and yet to get installed in one single continent), I am more inclined to think that most majors to US$ are in some sort of perpetual corrective moves (which will include impulsive waves), balancing out each other's strength and weakness at times. Shorter-term, I favour more upside in Aussie dollar if the low can be held at around 1.01 or 1.00, then it might get back up to 1.10 or 1.11 by the end of this summer.

Thanks

F

Ahmed;

More excellent analysis. I will add that, while as you state there are no fib or arithmetic ratios, there are geometric ratios in the triangle as depicted in this chart and a common between movements.

Between waves B and D there is a contracting harmonic of a cube (.0577) at .549 and a contracting harmonic of a square (.354) between E and C at .359. The ratio between A and C is .8645 which is within .011 of .875. While these ratios are not precise, they are very close. Another ratio that occurs between the movements in the triangle is .707.

As an added note, we have a retest which has not as yet gone as high as I thought and, a potential H&S pattern. While I am concerned about an up-sloping H&S pattern in a down trend, a break of the neckline would be a clear signal to enter on the short side.

We will let the minor wave 2's complete and see what happens. Could be corrections.

Good Luck.

Franosh;

I sent you a PM.

Originally Posted by mrbandwidth

Any count on aussie 4h or 1h, please?

Thanks in advance

exclusive for my bros here, hope it helps

bigger picture, either another high or my preferred count for 5 wave down to complete wave C of Y
lets see if the diagonal is leading or ending....lol

Originally Posted by stanchiam

nothing will keep going up without a correction, especially if it is wave 1
rejoice usd bears...
cheeers

the game continue, ready your pop corn and sit tight
if this is w3, then tighten your sit belt, else will fall off the sit when houston blast off


ps: this is usdollar chart, usd bears happy time is over if this is w3
but what worry me is that it look like 5w and could be wave A of 2...lol

Fundamentally, Central bank policies on both sides of the Atlantic, are causing price stagnation. A smaller fractal to the period April –July 2011, is being formed because of such policies. Wave-Y is forming an decsending triangle.

To trade profitably over the coming months, the trader needs to reverse strategies. Instead of buying breakouts > overbought, & selling breakouts < Oversold, this is a congestion market, and the trader needs to buy bounces at oversold, and sell bounces at overbought levels. Examples are illustrated by the red arrows shown on the chart below. The overbought level on the shown indicator runs at 0.5. The trader should be more interested to be placed into sells instead of buys as a Trend down could breakout impulsively any time. The most probable outcome for such a down trend would be to breakdown at (e) of the decsending triangle, - some 2.618 distance time wise
Calculated from Wave-W. The same concept of selling bounces at the overbought level, could be profitably implemented by Short term swing traders on the hourly chart. Closeout for small gains (100-150 pts). Do not ride gains for hopes of a breakout any time soon. – profitable trading.

Really impressed of your analysis guys. Learning massively on your different views and thoughts. Thank you all.

I would like to share with you a count on Apple, as trying to understand better mass psychology, seems interesting to count a big impulse.



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In this count wave 3 is 2.618 the length of wave 1. Wave iii purple is 2.618 the length of wave i purple. Wave v purple is the extended wave of the extended 3. If this last movement is and Ending diagonal will be a beauty.

xtura

Originally Posted by xtura

Really impressed of your analysis guys. Learning massively on your different views and thoughts. Thank you all.

I would like to share with you a count on Apple, as trying to understand better mass psychology, seems interesting to count a big impulse.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

In this count wave 3 is 2.618 the length of wave 1. Wave iii purple is 2.618 the length of wave i purple. Wave v purple is the extended wave of the extended 3. If this last movement is and Ending diagonal will be a beauty.

xtura

does look like it will end with an ED
however, i think the fall will be wave 4 and another leg up before the real fall
anyway, plenty of room for the fall even if it is wave 4

Originally Posted by stanchiam

Most likely i am wrong since most bros here are with bullish view and count.
but i have to provide the alternate bearish view
as marketwavez2 said, there is always a bullish and bearish count at the same time
cheers

ps: click on the image to see bigger view
btw, talk about qe3 is not acknowledge by market, if market agree, bond will have drop





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don't cry for me honey bears, they are trying their very best already


now

Originally Posted by stanchiam

talk about extreme levels
the % of traders long eurchf is around 90%, so if nearly everyone is long, then who going to buy more to push it up further?
think it just need a little push down from big players to stop out those huge pile of longs, 1.2 level to be exact
any big player want to take on swiss bank? lol
if u win, u win big

there was once a story that say soros kill the bank of england
will there be a new story that xxxxx kill the SNB?
if snb keep buying to support 1.2 while the rest 92% already long, who else is buying?
if snb run out of fund, will ben print some for them?
or will snb trigger a massive stop loss?
someone some fund must be eyeballing it, watch out for those 92% long as most of those are weak longs
once 10 pip below 1.2, think should trigger most of those stops

Keep in mind the alternate count of a diagonal triangle in formation or this bounce could prove to be wave 1 of (5) very unlikely. The invalidation of the diagonal pattern as stated earliar is 0.9767

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

Competent Trades

USDX 06.04.12; Three White Soldiers

Originally Posted by eddek

USDX 04.04.12

nice count Ahmed, here is mine, a different perspective but same bearish view

Here is a look at the EGYPT CMA General market index the pattern is exceptional to say the least.



Bellow is a more detailed looks on the technicals of the EGYPT CMA General Index a turn took place and this Index exploded higher. The Blue chip index EGX30 is analyzed bellow, we had divergence between the two since the 09 lows, typical Dow theory non confirmation of the revolution lows.





I dont remember which Rothchild said, "Buy when there is blood on the streets" What occured in Egypt in 2011 is certainly a trough in social mood as illustrated in the pictures above. If not one that would last decades (Preferred count) then certainly for many years to come.

On a shorter scale I'm counting the 2012 advance into march as wave 1 on the CMA and EGX currently in wave 2, the upcoming advance in arabian equities in general should be a broad third wave. So as the title of this post suggests... BUY, BUY, BUY!!!
Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

Competent Trades

The above chart clearly explains why the 2000 high is certainly not the supercycle peak. It also highlights the perfect alternation between waves 2 & 4 in time, construction and intricacy(subdivisions).



Due to the extremely low volume(a typical characteristic expected near or at the end of a second wave) the wave patterns since the end of the wave (B) triangle seems difficult to read we are currently at the 50% expansion target of wave A, Here are my two counts. The dashed range shows the price zone of the (2)nd wave of the 07-09 decline which is where you'd look for a second wave of larger degree to terminate (after breaching the 4th wave zone).



This market has been able to remain resilient, to an extent, to the declines in the european bourses which suggests that the above count could prove to be the right count, However I would rather jump out my window off of the 14th floor than buy, even if the second count (the one right above) proves to be correct. This is going to fall and its going to be bad. Look at the longer term Dow analysis posted soon after this blog was brought back to life. Every great story has an ending. The rally from 2009 was indeed a great story, infact it saw the s&p more than double in price, the economy improved and unemployment dropped. I see the euphoria surrounding this rally every day on CNBC... I certainly hope they enjoy it now because as stocks plummit in the near future so will thier viewers due to widely shared feeling of disgust that will arise towards stocks. Most of the people celebrating on TV will have be laid off due to sharp declines in thier advertising revenues. Thats if they dont shut shop competely.

Another point to note is the sudden rise in speculative targets for Apple(1000+ & 2000+), which is nothing more than a guarentee of an approuching reversal.

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

Competent Trades