Elliot wave has a very big weakness that I found out last year on S&P 500. I face a lot of overcount and less count problems from those Pro. Thus I added something to Elliot wave principle to make a correct analysis. Wave can be truncated anytime that it is totally not follow to the elliot principle !!
I suppose your overcount is referring to the overlap rule of wave 4 and 1, Things havent been as clear lately due to the very low volume is is to be expected as this move is terminating a second wave, view SPX counts on my blog
it seems evident that the correction subdivided into a flat as anticipated earliar, Notice how the 5th wave of the C wave is struggling to move higher which is nicely reflected on the MACD. I'd suggest going short at a close bellow the monthly central pivot at 1.5885
Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly
nice count, corrective waves can be counted in many ways, here is mine
cheers
Wave 2 complete yesterday, now is time to come of bears, and I think the down will be very fast
It is not yet complete but most people short it because Greece in the election process. I also short it too. Sometimes need to take the risk too. Yupee
In this count wave 3 is 2.618 the length of wave 1. Wave iii purple is 2.618 the length of wave i purple. Wave v purple is the extended wave of the extended 3. If this last movement is and Ending diagonal will be a beauty.
Just to say, I miss you Colly, Eska, Ayo.... and many others (in no particular order) for sharing their knowledge about EW here and thanks also Alejandro, pip'n'greg and DailyFX to bring a platform to catalyze all this wisdom together.
I agree... Still higher for EUR/USD... I am holding long from 1.3100 looking for a 1.3700 target... But would not be surprised to see it go higher...
I am out of this trade at break even... However, I am still longer term bullish EUR/USD and expect a large bottom to carve out over the next several months followed by a rally back into the 1.4000's
The EUR/USD monthly chart finds itself stuck between a monster bear trend, and major support....
A close look at the monthly chart shows we have substantial bullish trend line support coming up over the next few months which also happens to coincide with major fib support at 1.2639
Market favors long positions as close to 1.2639 as possible with stops not far below....
I have drawn grey and orange candles to show where I believe the market will move from present...
Keep in mind each candle represents one month of price action...
The EUR/USD monthly chart finds itself stuck between a monster bear trend, and major support....
A close look at the monthly chart shows we have substantial bullish trend line support coming up over the next few months which also happens to coincide with major fib support at 1.2639
Market favors long positions as close to 1.2639 as possible with stops not far below....
I have drawn grey and orange candles to show where I believe the market will move from present...
Keep in mind each candle represents one month of price action...
Interesting call here Brad. I have been watching for a break of that trend line for a while now. If care to check you find that Ian told me it was not a valid trend line. But, I am extremely bearish the Eur$. I think there is a triangle that has broken and the retest is complete. Regardless, I am watching 2 potential head and shoulders patterns in here. One H&S neckline on the weekly chart will be confirmed on a break of 1.3000 will signal 1.2543 as a minimum target and a break of the second in the 1.2520 area signals a minimum target 1.0363. The lower target is consistent with a technical measure from the triangle in the 1.0217 area.
Anyway, I respect your ability and admire your technical insight.
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Originally Posted by JoeyLee
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EURUSD M15 - 13 April 2012
