hmm - internal situation doesn`t matter that much - What if Greeks say: Frau Merkel consider it war reparations (long overdue) and lets get back to Drahma, shall we? And Mr Hollande? How patient the Germans are?
Europe's troubles do not necessarily translate to Aussie's trouble. Money always seeks yields, no matter how bad it is there is always a lot of money sloshed around needing somewhere to park. As long as China and emerging market are holding up even in appearances only, Aussie is often most attractive if only because of its yield. And technicals are not bearish at all, at least not in short to medium term.
Most people do not agree that on the top was wave 4. I short the JPY last week friday. My emotion plus elliot wave tells me that this is the way. What do you think, Guys ? NZDUSD is not a good pair. Ignore it. Nearly flat.
Since we are in the long term corner, what do you think of Aussie? We have a perfect zigzag from 2001 probably complete. My charts go back only to 1989 so I can`t track the complete wave count , but I have someone`s chart from 2008 with an impulse down and 61.8 fib at 1.11. This would suggest the Aussie is eventually going below 0.47. What is your take?
BTW - yen debasement = trouble for China = trouble^2 for Australia
edit: Brad if you are here - do you have a complete long term count for Aussie?
Patryk
I don't have long term charts like you. But, what I can say is that wave A of what I you are probably terming a zigzag is 5,035p which would imply a target of 1.1040 for the Aussie. The actual high was 1.1079, for all practical purposes two equal waves and a high. In my view there are three implications. Either a zigzag, a leading diagonal or wave 1 of 3 is complete and wave 3 is underway.
Since the bottom was a .4814 in Apr of 2001 and the Australian dollar index declined in value from its 1975 high of over 1.6, you can count the first move up to what most are counting as a 5 wave move as wave 1. The correction as 2 and the subsequent high as either wave 3 with wave 4 under way or wave 1 of 3 with 2 of 3 underway.
I think the aussie is headed back to 1.6075 in what is likely wave a of a zigzag pattern. In order for this to occur, price must first decline to about .9160 and then rally in the final wave of wave a then decline to near 60 followed by wave C.
Hii Mr. 2_Bit. Can you show the weekly count ? I am confused with this NZD. Thank You.
Hi JoeyLee!
I agree, NZD can be a tricky pair to count. I believe NZD may be forming a diagonal wave C on the weekly timeframe, a wave that started back in 2000. This wave C is part of a larger multidecade correction in my opinion. I believe that within the next year this pair will break the highs formed last year. I hope that my count below gives you the larger timeframe perspective you were looking for on the short term count I posted earlier.
good day, been side seeing but really disappointed no bros here posted good corrective count on eu.
There are all sort of weird count posted, seems like bros are confused by the overlapping 3 waves
a simple yet not so simple zig zag corrective wave
will post one chart, ie eurusd, hope it helps
those still bullish
good luck to you mad bulls, honey bear shall squeeze every drop of those mad cow juice and turn it into honey...lol
Brad do you have a complete long term count for Aussie?
Hello Patryk... Been a while old friend..
Here's my long term wave count for AUD/USD ----->
Both long term corrective waves we're near equal... Not to mention the bull trend reversed right at the 161.8% Long term fib resistance level...
I favor a long term top is in place, and expect lower prices to come, but I think we'll probably see the market fairly well supported... Even though we're now in a bear market....
Market favors selling rallies on the daily chart....
good day, been side seeing but really disappointed no bros here posted good corrective count on eu.
There are all sort of weird count posted, seems like bros are confused by the overlapping 3 waves
a simple yet not so simple zig zag corrective wave
will post one chart, ie eurusd, hope it helps
those still bullish
good luck to you mad bulls, honey bear shall squeeze every drop of those mad cow juice and turn it into honey...lol
I'm always up for a challenge, except my wife wants me to come to bed in 15 minutes so here's my best shot.
I'm always up for a challenge, except my wife wants me to come to bed in 15 minutes so here's my best shot.
nice try, trying to turn ending diagonal into leading diagonal, turn those internal count into 5 waves and u will be right
that is why most using ew fail badly and think ew sucks, this is one example, anyway, good post.
Cheers
ps: i am not saying it cannot turn bullish, it can still mutate, but that is another topic
I don't have long term charts like you. But, what I can say is that wave A of what I you are probably terming a zigzag is 5,035p which would imply a target of 1.1040 for the Aussie. The actual high was 1.1079, for all practical purposes two equal waves and a high. In my view there are three implications. Either a zigzag, a leading diagonal or wave 1 of 3 is complete and wave 3 is underway.
Since the bottom was a .4814 in Apr of 2001 and the Australian dollar index declined in value from its 1975 high of over 1.6, you can count the first move up to what most are counting as a 5 wave move as wave 1. The correction as 2 and the subsequent high as either wave 3 with wave 4 under way or wave 1 of 3 with 2 of 3 underway.
I think the aussie is headed back to 1.6075 in what is likely wave a of a zigzag pattern. In order for this to occur, price must first decline to about .9160 and then rally in the final wave of wave a then decline to near 60 followed by wave C.
Both long term corrective waves we're near equal... Not to mention the bull trend reversed right at the 161.8% Long term fib resistance level...
I favor a long term top is in place, and expect lower prices to come, but I think we'll probably see the market fairly well supported... Even though we're now in a bear market....
Market favors selling rallies on the daily chart....
good day, been side seeing but really disappointed no bros here posted good corrective count on eu.
There are all sort of weird count posted, seems like bros are confused by the overlapping 3 waves
a simple yet not so simple zig zag corrective wave
will post one chart, ie eurusd, hope it helps
those still bullish
good luck to you mad bulls, honey bear shall squeeze every drop of those mad cow juice and turn it into honey...lol
I been looking out for you Stanchaim - I have been posting overlapping corrective combo over in the EURUSD like mad - this is where I hang out as it is my trading asset. Been a bit lonely over there as I have resisted going long into any of the latter shenanigans! Be good to see the market finally adhere to the count - lol,
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Originally Posted by fazi
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