Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by stanchiam

hmmm....another complex count

i prefer a clean count, here is mine, less headache for newbies
KISS...cheers

ps:back to hiding mode

as expected and boom

All right. I was wrong and Mr. Market spanked me good tonight and temporarily muted my bullish enthusiasm. I will work up a new count and post tomorrow. One question I have to you is what you mean when you say a leading diagonal cannot be internally 3 waves. I had it as a 3-3-3-3-3 wave as shown in the 30 minute chart and I though the wave 2 was an expanded flat, which I thought did not break any rules. Any advice would be appreciated as I've been stuck with about a 50% W/L ratio for about a year now and I'd like to have higher probability counts.

Nzd pattern may be ABCDE. What do you think ? Guys. I want to go for short and still waiting for pull back. This is crazy. 3000 pips in this year.

Originally Posted by 2_bits

All right. I was wrong and Mr. Market spanked me good tonight and temporarily muted my bullish enthusiasm. I will work up a new count and post tomorrow. One question I have to you is what you mean when you say a leading diagonal cannot be internally 3 waves. I had it as a 3-3-3-3-3 wave as shown in the 30 minute chart and I though the wave 2 was an expanded flat, which I thought did not break any rules. Any advice would be appreciated as I've been stuck with about a 50% W/L ratio for about a year now and I'd like to have higher probability counts.

oh boy, leading diagonal is internally 5-3-5-3-5, ending diagonal is 3-3-3-3-3
can you refer to the book that teach u leading diagonal can be internally 3 waves?? I want to know which book say that
you want to have a better W/L ratio using ew, then my advise is get your basic foundation solid first.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

Nzd pattern may be ABCDE. What do you think ? Guys. I want to go for short and still waiting for pull back. This is crazy. 3000 pips in this year.

It could be. But, if you examine that closely, you will see a potential H&S pattern that is indicating a minimum move of 1575p when it breaks.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

oh boy, leading diagonal is internally 5-3-5-3-5, ending diagonal is 3-3-3-3-3
can you refer to the book that teach u leading diagonal can be internally 3 waves?? I want to know which book say that
you want to have a better W/L ratio using ew, then my advise is get your basic foundation solid first.

Here we go. I had to go up into my attic to find my copy as I haven't referred to it in a long time. From page 40 of the Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter,

"Leading Diagonal

It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, althought in two cases, they can be labeled 5-3-5-3-5, so the jury is out on a strict defintion...."

Elsewhere in the book it states that ending diagonals have to be 3-3-3-3-3 waves, although in the real world I've seen what appeared to me to be 5-3-5-3-5 ending diagonals too.

Anyway, it's clear now that it was not a leading diagonal.

Originally Posted by aerocom

It could be. But, if you examine that closely, you will see a potential H&S pattern that is indicating a minimum move of 1575p when it breaks.

Good Luck.

Can you show me your long term count ? It is seldom to have this type of condition expanding diagonal but i suspected it when the wave D moved away from trend line. Past few years back it has the possibility of moving 3000 pips below in a year. Expanding diagonal on for moving upward but in this case is weird. Need more confirmation from you all. Thanks.

Originally Posted by aerocom

I think what you mean is Jay's count has been invalidated because the price of wave e cannot extend beyond the price of wave c.

Good Luck.

no - when I wrote this price was ok yet, but rsi broken triangle

I see many hard bears here. I will be this kind of bear too, but there are few things:

1) look on peak on oil - for me this is 3 waves. This is not a top - looks like flat from top.



2) look on copper. How many swing do you see from low ? I see 5 - we need 7



3) I see 1,7 area on GBPUSD - there is no triangle on weekly any more. Rsi not confirming this - rsi for point E of this triangle is higher than rsi for point C.

your charts about usdchf - we corrected less than 23% of all move. It can be, but it's ugly for me. I see new low after bigger correction - even flat with new top.

Originally Posted by szaman1977

no - when I wrote this price was ok yet, but rsi broken triangle

I see many hard bears here. I will be this kind of bear too, but there are few things:

1) look on peak on oil - for me this is 3 waves. This is not a top - looks like flat from top.



2) look on copper. How many swing do you see from low ? I see 5 - we need 7



3) I see 1,7 area on GBPUSD - there is no triangle on weekly any more. Rsi not confirming this - rsi for point E of this triangle is higher than rsi for point C.

your charts about usdchf - we corrected less than 23% of all move. It can be, but it's ugly for me. I see new low after bigger correction - even flat with new top.

You need to check your oil chart. Oil just completed a 3 wave down move followed by a 3 wave up move. A flat is under way in wave c that should carry to the 69 area.

That is not a 5 wave up move as you have it labeled. it is a 5-3-5. Your 1 is A; your 2 is B and 3 is C; 4 is b then A-B and a 5 wave wave C. All correcting the previous 5 wave down move that I would label as 1.

There is no triangle pattern in the RSI. But, price is what you should be watching for patterns. I only use indicators for confirmation. The GBP$ is in what I am cautiously calling wave c of D of a triangle and possibly wave 1. I maintain that it should carry to the 1.4800 area at a minimum. The reason why I am cautious is because I think the cycle low should not come until 2017.

PM me your email address.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

Can you show me your long term count ? It is seldom to have this type of condition expanding diagonal but i suspected it when the wave D moved away from trend line. Past few years back it has the possibility of moving 3000 pips below in a year. Expanding diagonal on for moving upward but in this case is weird. Need more confirmation from you all. Thanks.

I don't have a long term count. I will do one tomorrow for you. Until then, look at Ahmeds. He posts here as TraderFringez and posted today his kiwi count. I started to short the kiwi but, decided to wait until the H&S pattern neckline broke. Still waiting.

Good Luck.

At first I could not believe it that was the end. I thought that was expanding diagonal. It is quite difficult to count in smaller time frame. Thus I use daily chart and see the bear sign. Check with the portion that i circle. It supports each action of the price.

[QUOTE=aerocom;1136882]You need to check your oil chart. Oil just completed a 3 wave down move followed by a 3 wave up move. A flat is under way in wave c that should carry to the 69 area.

That is not a 5 wave up move as you have it labeled. it is a 5-3-5. Your 1 is A; your 2 is B and 3 is C; 4 is b then A-B and a 5 wave wave C. All correcting the previous 5 wave down move that I would label as 1.

QUOTE]

About oil - with chart everthing is ok. look on tf and date. it's h1 until middle of march. I want to show only that 110 on oil it's not a top.

and about 5 waves - you mean on copper.
I wrote about swings - not waves . min for corrections there is 7 swings. I expect one more leg up.

on spx I expect also more high after bigger correction. where this correction can end ? maybe 1250 ? I see gap on spx future in this area.

eurusd ? few possibililies
lower - but without new low and 3700 area
lower - with new low 2400-2200 area and then 3700 (which is similar with your cable).
look on usdx - for now we have 5 swings. we can read it as LD. If we will make new top now it can be flat after LD ... or WXY (not LD). In both case I expect new high.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

At first I could not believe it that was the end. I thought that was expanding diagonal. It is quite difficult to count in smaller time frame. Thus I use daily chart and see the bear sign. Check with the portion that i circle. It supports each action of the price.

Here is what I am watching. You will see perfect symmetry in both price and RSI.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Here is what I am watching. You will see perfect symmetry in both price and RSI.

Good Luck.

Yeah that's great. I am waiting for your long term count.

fourth wave in support of