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05-11-2012, 09:45 AM #45331
1.o4 calls (jun,aug?) were very actively traded lately
Originally Posted by aerocom
cable - 1.63 is may the 19th top today - no more 1.64 quotes
edit: usdcad options skew attached
Last edited by fazi; 05-11-2012 at 10:04 AM.
05-11-2012, 11:41 AM #45332
Trendie77 trade was perfect and my hedge has worked so far (I always fail on hedging). I think this is a flat. Wave A of the flat is a zig-zag beauty. I don't have objectives for C to end but 0.9922 area is next technical support, 50% fibo of the entire move up and 161.8 expansion of wave A. Enough for me to try a small long if price action drives us there. As Ahmed say with stop loss under april 27 low.
Originally Posted by aerocom
05-11-2012, 12:12 PM #45333
It actually plays out like a flat. But, it is an irregular complex correction. If it does not go tripple, it ends with 5 down and may be over.
Originally Posted by xtura
05-11-2012, 11:04 PM #45334
I failed to see the hedge or a mid/long term long. Pls advise on this.
05-12-2012, 08:59 AM #45335
Sure. A little bit long to explain but I will try.
Originally Posted by Trendie77
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This is maybe the orthodox count and, following rules strictly wave b top could develop in an expanded flat, surprisingly orthodox wave c looks as a zig zag (chart details following). Elliot Channel indicates a throw-over on this wave b, and on the entire impulse there's no extended wave. This two phenomenons take me to the conclusion that wave 5 could be extended and I'm moving my wave 5 to the wave b position. Additionally, My wave 5 (not the orthodox) is 2.618 the length of wave 1 black orthodox.
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Beeing said that, I would like to tell you what I like the most of the wave principle. The essential spirit of the waves.
For example, an Ending diagonal tells you that the trend is exhausted and price has gone too far too quick. A triangle is alerting you that the actual trend is going to change in the near future. An extended five creating a throw-over could be telling you a violent change on the trend similar to an Ending diagonal.
Fibonacci expansions and retraces gives you nature confirmation of what's really happening and helps me identify the real dimensions of the moves that more often than not are really difficult to count visually.
In this specific trade, I was long at 0.9860. Following my long term count (ahmed and aerocom too)and expecting a move higher to 1.04 or 1.05 at least if not more. When I see the end of wave 1 and understanding that wave 2 could retrace a good amount of wave 1 I start to think on hedging my long term position. Looking at MACD and the throw-over I was short at 1.0038 with half of the amount of my initial long term trade, trying to protect part of the investment in the upcoming retrace.
Last but not least, I will tell you that I fail most of the time. I'm operating a micro account to understand better the pain of loss but improving a lot lately with the help of the forum and working hard on understanding waves behavior, Fibonacci ratios and the different styles and counts found on the net, trying to pick what it seems more meaningful.
Sorry for my english, if something is not clear please let me know.
Last edited by xtura; 05-13-2012 at 08:44 AM.
05-13-2012, 01:23 AM #45336
Hi Fazi, it's a nice chart, what format are you dealing with ? please advise
05-13-2012, 05:57 AM #45337
Euroyen - Cycle segregation analysis
LONG TERM CYCLE SEGREGATION- CHART/1
The secular TREND runs between the dashed lines labeled A& B. This pair is a directly correlated with equity markets. The last secular 5 swing bull Trend (w1-w5 green), coincided with the bull run in internet stocks back towards end of 1999. Interest Rate differentials between the Euro & Yen also helped fuel the run up to 170 tops, as the pair became a carry vehicle. The correction that ensued at Top of W5 green, coincided with the credit bust of 2008. The primary count for the correction is shown in A-B-C (Red). Momentum wise there is still a 5th leg down (e) to go in order to complete “C” Red. We feel quite confident yet to see a 5th leg (e) down, because the momentum spike at (A) being a 5-wave affair, must be followed by a ( C ) also in 5-waves. This time however, because the market is working to form an accumulative bottom, and so Wave-C seems to be unfolding in an ending diagonal. Wave –e of ( C ), would need strong fundamentals to trigger on. Possibly more debt restructuring in Europe, or more to DE-leverage, operations out of equities. It could then be possible to see market lows in (e) as far as 87.
The alternate count is shown in “Green”. In this scenario, central bank interferences on both sides of the Atlantic, stabilizes the exchange rate. Wave-C has therefore ended at (5-green). Over the coming 2-3 year period, the market will be doing a massive inverted head & double shoulders, to climb back atop the Ema-200, and support above the pink 50% bar line sub dividing the secular trending channel between axis A&B.
DAILY CYCLE SEGREGATION- CHART/2
The main count is shown in red & orange. Expect an ending diagonal fractal to be currently forming. If the alternate count showing in (green) stands any chance of progressing, then the ending diagonal needs to bounce promptly at the top of wave-1 (Black). This will require strong economic fundamentals that are currently lacking. So we would expect a technically “cyclic” muted bounce (look at the Red momentum cycle below price chart) to commence some where between waves 1&2 (black). This bounce being on weak fundamentals should be contained by the neckline, giving a false impression of an inverted H&S, before there is a tragic fall in a Wave-3 (brown), initially towards 96.50, to be possibly followed by a wave-5 to 87.
SHORT TERM CYCLE SEGREGATION- CHART/3
Short term market is currently doing 5-iv , and about to do 5v. Automated shorts into 5-iv must have a stop > 104.5, to target 102.5 (Truncated 5v with 5-iii). There is a mild possibility that 5v would extend into 5v (blue). But that would require very weak fundamentals, and these are not foreseen to rapidly deteriorate. Note the broadening diagonal (dashed line) that is running in alternation with the ending diagonal spoken off on the daily chart. Expect this to be tested on bounce out of a truncated 5v, and ultimately give way after forming a multiple inverted H&S at the short term neckline. Short term trade direction would then reverse into longs to test upper
Boundary of the ending diagonal running on daily. Break of this – IF/WHEH it happens opens the way to a test of the neckline (Grey) running on the daily & showing on the hourly at 108. Due to the momentum congestion between -0.5 & 0.5 showing on the daily chart-2, breakout of the upper boundary of the ending diagonal could take several weeks – so don’t be hasty. It is advised to stand down congestion zones on the daily. It is advised however, to place the ea to enter long with multiple lots once momentum breaks > 0.5 on daily, keeping stops below the short term running neck line, and go for the daily long term running neck line at 108. Patience is key here, but can be over ridden, by having an automated entry do the waiting.
05-14-2012, 06:19 AM #45338
I still has a doubt. Market seems not yet running out of steam. I still hold short 1.3269 EURUSD, Long USDCHF 0.9087 and Long USDCAD 0.9843. These pairs I let it role until end of the year because it shows a special sign of end. I put these pairs GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD under observation. USDJPY seems not yet the end .
Last edited by JoeyLee; 05-14-2012 at 08:59 AM.
05-14-2012, 08:55 AM #45339
Elliot for this day
We are starting new wave 1 in 1h time frame.
Made order opened at 1,2830, Stop 1,2848, Profit 1,2796
05-14-2012, 11:19 AM #45340
Originally Posted by John Mosquera
Why wouldn't your "new 1" not just be an extended wave 5?
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05-14-2012, 02:06 PM #45341
You are holding some good positions. According to my analysis, both the $chf and $cad are long term holds. The Eur$ and NZD$ both have long-term setups.
Originally Posted by JoeyLee
The $yen I am cautious on. However, according to my time cycle analysis, a low should have been put in on May 6. It looks like it could have been 2 days late. Price seems to be in a diagonal but may have completed the down move. I have a long entry at 80.25. Last night price moved to 80.19 and backed off. If it continues down as we both suspect it could, I am now looking at 78.88 as the reversal point. In any event, I expect the $yen to be trading at a new high by mid June.
05-14-2012, 07:55 PM #45342
I like the clear EW pattern on the GBP/JPY daily chart.. I think Jamie discussed it today in his video. Solid structure there.
05-14-2012, 08:36 PM #45343
USD/CHF Long Opportunity
USD/CHF finds itself rallying from a long term fib level, and there is a break away gap on the daily chart to bolster the bullish case....
Trying long here at .9360
With a stop in the gap at .9185
Stop will be moved to break even, then I will look to trail this position...
Last edited by brad_1199; 05-14-2012 at 09:15 PM.
05-14-2012, 10:43 PM #45344
I know you are long term. But, I have a slightly different, although bullish count. My target is 9446 then pull back to close gap.
Originally Posted by brad_1199
Last edited by aerocom; 05-14-2012 at 11:28 PM.
05-15-2012, 03:08 AM #45345