Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

Difficult to trust on the oil news. No solid evidence at all. Well, I believe on the global market count. My target is 3000 pips for USDCAD in this year. Yupee.

BOC governor Carney recently discussed Oil publicly it is out there. So is his outlook for CAD/USD. He foresees BOC rate hikes this year and states CAD/USD will move and stay above USD for at least two years. Few seem to believe him, just as few believed his jobs outlook before it posted its best run since the 1970s. All construction data (housing, prices, commercial, starts, permits) remains supportive of Carney's stated intent. We'll see.

Originally Posted by aerocom

I don't know. It appears to me that this run is just about over. If the triangle is a measure, price could extend to .9446. But, the 5th wave principle would have the end in the area of .9411. Price has currently extended to .9418 and satisfied the principle. However, an extended move of 2.618 times wave 1 and an extended 5th wave would put price at .9456.

If the top came today, price would pull back possibly in a deep wave 2 correction to the .9151 to 9115 area. However, since this is a strong market it may not go that deep. At this point, a pullback based on a square of the up move in price would last about 19 days which would indicate a low around June 4. I allow a 3 - 4 day leeway. This would also be consistent with the time cycle analysis which has a potential low on June 5.

Good Luck.

I think it will reach 0.9600 to form double top. If it able to reach 0.9600 so the gap would not be filled up, it only pulls back to 0.9400. Do not know yet. Let it end by this month. I will long again next month if NFP report is worst again.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

BOC governor Carney recently discussed Oil publicly it is out there. So is his outlook for CAD/USD. He foresees BOC rate hikes this year and states CAD/USD will move and stay above USD for at least two years. Few seem to believe him, just as few believed his jobs outlook before it posted its best run since the 1970s. All construction data (housing, prices, commercial, starts, permits) remains supportive of Carney's stated intent. We'll see.

Right, now we come to one of those age old debates technical analysis versus fundamental analysis. Which one is right? I’ve heard on the thread, there was a guy, stating there, that the news is moving the market. And I hear that a lot, the people say, but it’s the news that moves the market. I’m gonna ask a counter question, and that is: If the news comes out and you take the people away, that they can not trade, say there is a power break, and nobody can trade, no person can trade, is the market going to move? It’s not going to move, the market is moved by people and it’s moved by the decisions of people, and it’s moved by their interpretation and their perception of the news that they have heard.
It’s not so much the news that came out, it’s the people’s interpretation and perception of what they think that news is worth to them, that moves the market. If I buy a stand and I want to build a house in it and I came to know that there’s oil underneath it, then this stand is gonna be much more worth, but other people might not know it, so even if the guy comes and offers me twice as much what the stand next door is, I’m not gonna sell, because I’ve got information that he does not have. And that’s very important to see that the market move is about people making decisions and that’s why I always say to fundamental guy is, I’m Elliot believer, I just don’t go into depth studying the fundamentals, but the price action with the emotion tells me what the fundamentals are. Not really the actual fundamentals, but what do people think and expect of those fundamentals.

Ok, AO and MFI confirm W1 as the figure attached can show the early prediction. Along with CPI USA data and the down trend load of bad new in Europe (including China stop buying sovering euro assets). So it was not a w5 extended as the picture indicates.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

I think it will reach 0.9600 to form double top. If it able to reach 0.9600 so the gap would not be filled up, it only pulls back to 0.9400. Do not know yet. Let it end by this month. I will long again next month if NFP report is worst again.

It may. But, I am not adding here. I have Friday the 18th as the end of the run. I am waiting for June. We will see what happens.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

Right, now we come to one of those age old debates technical analysis versus fundamental analysis.

Says who? Why not go only when you have BOTH?...Like Kathy Lien always advocated on here before becoming rich & famous, lol

I did not discount the technicals. I just intended to alert you to the BOC target and outlook fyi. As there is a worthwhile saying don't fight the Fed. (which applies to BOC too?? i dunno)

As for your EW, i’m only an EW novice (tho with a great 5-year track record in dailyfx for usdcad), but I notice that even some EW’ers disagree in their interpretations.... seems too complicated and too many rules & exceptions for a dimwit like me

Good luck with your 1.30 usdcad …. I do hope you’re right but I am skeptical.

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Says who? Why not go only when you have BOTH?...Like Kathy Lien always advocated on here before becoming rich & famous, lol

I did not discount the technicals. I just intended to alert you to the BOC target and outlook fyi. As there is a worthwhile saying don't fight the Fed. (which applies to BOC too?? i dunno)

As for your EW, i’m only an EW novice (tho with a great 5-year track record in dailyfx for usdcad), but I notice that even some EW’ers disagree in their interpretations.... seems too complicated and too many rules & exceptions for a dimwit like me

Good luck with your 1.30 usdcad …. I do hope you’re right but I am skeptical.

Prove it with your chart. Chart speaks louder than your words as whatsoever you stated is right. You are in elliot wave discussion forum. Last year was a doji year. What is mean by doji ? It means no idea or no direction. So until April the monthly bar moving downward is getting smaller until this month it has become Engulfing pattern. The rhythm is so smooth it tells us that it wanted to move up entering the bull zone in the future. Watch out for this monthly engulfing bar. It may pull back on next month and moves up again.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

Prove it with your chart. Chart speaks louder than your words as whatsoever you stated is right.

We simply try to play nice, help and learn form each other here. I never said I was right; read me again:
“Good luck with your 1.30 usdcad ... I do hope YOU’RE RIGHT but I am SKEPTICAL.” [capitalization added]
One can simply ignore BOC governor Carney and his targets, as I wrote last time, “I dunno”.

Thank you for your EW diagram that you added later. I don’t see it going to 1.30 … But vonzey posted an EW wave before in the usdcad thread that goes to 1.30 but later recanted it, maybe check it out.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

Right, now we come to one of those age old debates technical analysis versus fundamental analysis. Which one is right? I’ve heard on the thread, there was a guy, stating there, that the news is moving the market. And I hear that a lot, the people say, but it’s the news that moves the market. I’m gonna ask a counter question, and that is: If the news comes out and you take the people away, that they can not trade, say there is a power break, and nobody can trade, no person can trade, is the market going to move? It’s not going to move, the market is moved by people and it’s moved by the decisions of people, and it’s moved by their interpretation and their perception of the news that they have heard.
It’s not so much the news that came out, it’s the people’s interpretation and perception of what they think that news is worth to them, that moves the market. If I buy a stand and I want to build a house in it and I came to know that there’s oil underneath it, then this stand is gonna be much more worth, but other people might not know it, so even if the guy comes and offers me twice as much what the stand next door is, I’m not gonna sell, because I’ve got information that he does not have. And that’s very important to see that the market move is about people making decisions and that’s why I always say to fundamental guy is, I’m Elliot believer, I just don’t go into depth studying the fundamentals, but the price action with the emotion tells me what the fundamentals are. Not really the actual fundamentals, but what do people think and expect of those fundamentals.

You mean to say that the market totally discounts everything on the charts.
I do concur on this – else I wouldn't be reading a technical forum to take in technical views on market projections. You need to look beyond this.

In the world of finance, a CFA (The certified fundamental analyst) is paid multiples of what a CMT or CFT (The certified technician) is paid. The CFA generally gets promoted to higher levels of management, and even into the board. The Technical analyst stops at assistant to an Asset Manager, - if he is really Good. You would have to be a world class author in technical analysis literature to see the inside of a board room.

Now why do you think that is so? Why would financial institutions pay so much in money & bonuses to CFAs? After all, everything there is to know;- trading information & otherwise is already discounted on the charts. Does this not spell out something.

The problem in technical analysis is "perception". Any technical analyst would tell you that you can see a pattern & its reverse unfold on different time frames at the same time. So is "Seeing = believing" or "Is nothing what it seems". Every time you look at a chart, you give each a deeper thought, then choose yr pick. But deeper thought based on what?? If you insist on not having a clue about the fundamentals. In essence, for the technical trader it's what you perceive to be seeing on the chart that ultimately counts. 50% of the time this gets mixed up with, what you want to be seeing. Respect for the market psychology spoken fondly off gets disregarded then – ironically when it runs counter to your perception & personal psychology.

With everything being spontaneously discounted on the charts at the same time, would you not agree that it becomes impossible to dually verify a correct perception of what you are seeing, and its extent in market psychology, unless you understand what's going on?

Originally Posted by Summerset

You mean to say that the market totally discounts everything on the charts.
I do concur on this – else I wouldn't be reading a technical forum to take in technical views on market projections. You need to look beyond this.

In the world of finance, a CFA (The certified fundamental analyst) is paid multiples of what a CMT or CFT (The certified technician) is paid. The CFA generally gets promoted to higher levels of management, and even into the board. The Technical analyst stops at assistant to an Asset Manager, - if he is really Good. You would have to be a world class author in technical analysis literature to see the inside of a board room.

Now why do you think that is so? Why would financial institutions pay so much in money & bonuses to CFAs? After all, everything there is to know;- trading information & otherwise is already discounted on the charts. Does this not spell out something.

The problem in technical analysis is "perception". Any technical analyst would tell you that you can see a pattern & its reverse unfold on different time frames at the same time. So is "Seeing = believing" or "Is nothing what it seems". Every time you look at a chart, you give each a deeper thought, then choose yr pick. But deeper thought based on what?? If you insist on not having a clue about the fundamentals. In essence, for the technical trader it's what you perceive to be seeing on the chart that ultimately counts. 50% of the time this gets mixed up with, what you want to be seeing. Respect for the market psychology spoken fondly off gets disregarded then – ironically when it runs counter to your perception & personal psychology.

With everything being spontaneously discounted on the charts at the same time, would you not agree that it becomes impossible to dually verify a correct perception of what you are seeing, and its extent in market psychology, unless you understand what's going on?

I don't know if it's different in your country, but CFA is Chartered Financial Analyst. A cursory glance at the average and median income of a CFA with years of experience shows that the salary is really not that impressive. I have no idea of the average or median salary for a CTA or technical analysts in finance/securities. The problem with financial analysts and/or economists is that if you put a dozen of them in a room analysing one problem, they might easily give you 13 or 14 opinions (I would say I am pretty sure of this as I've been there, done that). Then it's again back to opinions. When things are applied to the markets and trading/investing, technical or fundamental, people most of the time invest/trade only their opinions. The slight danger with some fundi-opinions is that because it's sometimes backed by number-crunching or this or that theory, one can get very stubborn and unbecoming.

Yall Better be making money!

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

We will be in the next Wave 5 in 1h time frame
No OverSold or OverBought confirm the current W4 (correction)

You might finally have your irregular. Question is expanded or running?.......



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I do not trust what CFA. One stone cannot kills a dozen of birds. Wave can be changing all the times. They cannot predict the pattern stays on their perceptions all the times. Try your luck with this CFA and you will discover what is actual biggest defect of elliot wave. Who can explain the wave is truncated or it actually has completed already ? I only can believe on my own count and i keep updating it. I might not be able to share every minute what is the latest change. This is what i see on USDCAD recently because I have entered at the edge. I would not trade if i do not see the clear count. Do you understand that, Miss Skibunny ? You have to learn elliot wave and stop depending on other people analysis. Thank you.

............gbpchf/wait for 4 wave