Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

I do not trust what CFA. One stone cannot kills a dozen of birds. Wave can be changing all the times. They cannot predict the pattern stays on their perceptions all the times. Try your luck with this CFA and you will discover what is actual biggest defect of elliot wave. Who can explain the wave is truncated or it actually has completed already ? I only can believe on my own count and i keep updating it. I might not be able to share every minute what is the latest change. This is what i see on USDCAD recently because I have entered at the edge. I would not trade if i do not see the clear count. Do you understand that, Miss Skibunny ? You have to learn elliot wave and stop depending on other people analysis. Thank you.

Hello JoeyLee. Thanks for sharing your opinions on the forum. However, please refrain from telling other traders what they should or should not do. Confine your comments to the market.

The Elliott Wave thread is known for the presentation and sharing of charts and wave counts. This interaction needs to change tone and direction immediately.

Thank you for your cooperation,

Regards,

Gregory McLeod
DailyFX Forum Moderator

EUR/USD is dropping down onto long term fibonacci support at 1.2639 .. Watch for the market to respect this level and forge a 100 - 200 pip rally from there even if its only temporary.. The market has shown respect for buyers at this level for years... The market has memory, and I'm sure we can get atleast a rally out of it here... Bears be careful.. I expect a rally from 1.2639

May 16th 2012///

Originally Posted by brad_1199

EUR/USD is dropping down onto long term fibonacci support at 1.2639 .. Watch for the market to respect this level and forge a 100 - 200 pip rally from there even if its only temporary.. The market has shown respect for buyers at this level for years... The market has memory, and I'm sure we can get atleast a rally out of it here... Bears be careful.. I expect a rally from 1.2639

May 16th 2012///

Thank you Brad! I was thinking the same about the US stock markets. Buyers coming in below 1320 on the S&P. Just to give it a pop.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

I do not trust what CFA. One stone cannot kills a dozen of birds. Wave can be changing all the times. They cannot predict the pattern stays on their perceptions all the times. Try your luck with this CFA and you will discover what is actual biggest defect of elliot wave. Who can explain the wave is truncated or it actually has completed already ? I only can believe on my own count and i keep updating it. I might not be able to share every minute what is the latest change. This is what i see on USDCAD recently because I have entered at the edge. I would not trade if i do not see the clear count. Do you understand that, Miss Skibunny ? You have to learn elliot wave and stop depending on other people analysis. Thank you.

Yes I understand you and I agree, but I think a statement from a central bank like BOC about its rates & currency isn’t just other people analysis. Like some EUR/CHF investors learned last year from the SNB.
Thank you for your chart and explanation. I appreciated it. Good luck!

Originally Posted by aerocom

As a follow up to this post. If wave 3 was an extension which I believe it is, the correction should be be capped at wave 4 of 3. Or counted another way wave b of 3. Using ratio analysis, the operative ratio based on the fact that wave 3 is nearly 2.828 times wave 1, the low is anticipated in the 1.6130 area.

Afterward, price will continue up in wave 5 which should, if 5=1, end in the area of 1.6309. However, using the 5th wave principle, price could extend to 1.6436. I would also point out that .707 retracement of the move down would equate to 1.6312 and 2.828 of wave 1 is 1.6315.

In conclusion, expect price to climb to and meet the 2.828 ratio target of 1.6315 but, there is a probability that price will go as high as 1.6436 in the final move up.

Good Luck.

2nd May 2012

Originally Posted by stanchiam

see what others don't see
perhaps there will be no wave 5, if it is as per my count
however, after posting my chart, market may decide to stop me and my followers out and u will get your wave 5...lol
careful and good luck, cheers

1.5985 taken out, no wave 5, riding the wave down and drinking honey and eating bull steak...just kidding..lol

Current wave w4 (up) in 5 min Time Frame
starting w5 (down) in 30 min Time Frame
Next target 1,2660 for this week. EUR/USD breaking all the resistance of the past 4 months.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

2nd May 2012

1.5985 taken out, no wave 5, riding the wave down and drinking honey and eating bull steak...just kidding..lol

Nice to see. Just remember this move should continue for a while. If it goes through resistance from 57-5500 area next stop is Jan's low. However, RSI readings are lowest since Nov 24, 2011.

Good Luck.

Well! Here we are back to this long term trend line that "is not valid." I, after months of deliberation still maintain that a break will mean clear sailing to the 1.100 area likely 1.0777.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by xtura

Sure. A little bit long to explain but I will try.



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This is maybe the orthodox count and, following rules strictly wave b top could develop in an expanded flat, surprisingly orthodox wave c looks as a zig zag (chart details following). Elliot Channel indicates a throw-over on this wave b, and on the entire impulse there's no extended wave. This two phenomenons take me to the conclusion that wave 5 could be extended and I'm moving my wave 5 to the wave b position. Additionally, My wave 5 (not the orthodox) is 2.618 the length of wave 1 black orthodox.




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Beeing said that, I would like to tell you what I like the most of the wave principle. The essential spirit of the waves.

For example, an Ending diagonal tells you that the trend is exhausted and price has gone too far too quick. A triangle is alerting you that the actual trend is going to change in the near future. An extended five creating a throw-over could be telling you a violent change on the trend similar to an Ending diagonal.

Fibonacci expansions and retraces gives you nature confirmation of what's really happening and helps me identify the real dimensions of the moves that more often than not are really difficult to count visually.

In this specific trade, I was long at 0.9860. Following my long term count (ahmed and aerocom too)and expecting a move higher to 1.04 or 1.05 at least if not more. When I see the end of wave 1 and understanding that wave 2 could retrace a good amount of wave 1 I start to think on hedging my long term position. Looking at MACD and the throw-over I was short at 1.0038 with half of the amount of my initial long term trade, trying to protect part of the investment in the upcoming retrace.

Last but not least, I will tell you that I fail most of the time. I'm operating a micro account to understand better the pain of loss but improving a lot lately with the help of the forum and working hard on understanding waves behavior, Fibonacci ratios and the different styles and counts found on the net, trying to pick what it seems more meaningful.

Sorry for my english, if something is not clear please let me know.

Un saludo,

xtura

Hi xtura,

Thank you of your advise and sharing of your view. The pair move as what you have written. There are a few terms used in your explanation that I don't understand. What are "throw-over" & "Ending diagonal"; and Triangle is usually perceived as continuous trend, how do you see it as a change of trend.

Thank you & regard
Trendie77

Originally Posted by Trendie77

Hi xtura,

Thank you of your advise and sharing of your view. The pair move as what you have written. There are a few terms used in your explanation that I don't understand. What are "throw-over" & "Ending diagonal"; and Triangle is usually perceived as continuous trend, how do you see it as a change of trend.

Thank you & regard
Trendie77

Lol! Those questions are not related to my poor English.

You're in need to read Frost & Prechter "The Wave Principle" or R.N. Elliott's "Masterworks". There you will find all this questions better explained than I can do.

Anyway, the triangle question is interesting, and Traditional TA has simplified enormously trading triangles. But when you understand well what is a triangle in essence you will find a more open trading opportunities.

I will give you an example recently viewed in IBEX-35 5 minutes chart. When you see this triangle you're seeing the leg up to wave 5 (continuation pattern, correct), ironically, I'm also seeing the big sell off following.

Una salutació,

xtura



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Originally Posted by JoeyLee

USDCAD is under extreme bullish if you see the monthly chart. I do not know whether this week it will pull back or not or even end of this month because it is entering the bull zone. I believe there is an extension for current wave 5 until end of the month so I still holding it. There is a strong support trend line on the bottom.

Joey,
Usdcad keeps moving up, even despite a good day in most commodities today. You seem to be on the correct track, yay
Keep on posting your good work!!...sometime maybe I will try an EW chart for this, like I did for gold last month (which tafool helpfully adjusted ).
I think it is hard as even EW gurus like Alf Field get it wrong sometimes

Originally Posted by SkiBunny

Joey,
Usdcad keeps moving up, even despite a good day in most commodities today. You seem to be on the correct track, yay
Keep on posting your good work!!...sometime maybe I will try an EW chart for this, like I did for gold last month (which tafool helpfully adjusted ).
I think it is hard as even EW gurus like Alf Field get it wrong sometimes

SkiBunny;

We don't just get it wrong sometimes. There are times when you want to pull your hair out because you can't figure out what the count is. The fact is that most forecasts and predictions are destined to be wrong. You have to accept this fact. Lose the ego and keep going. Elliott is just a tool, when used properly, it will help you quantify the degree of risk or reward in the market. To be successful, as with any method, you must have a plan and use money management.

If I can be of assistance, call on me.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

SkiBunny;

We don't just get it wrong sometimes. There are times when you want to pull your hair out because you can't figure out what the count is. The fact is that most forecasts and predictions are destined to be wrong. You have to accept this fact. Lose the ego and keep going. Elliott is just a tool, when used properly, it will help you quantify the degree of risk or reward in the market. To be successful, as with any method, you must have a plan and use money management.

If I can be of assistance, call on me.

Good Luck.

I cannot say it better.

Originally Posted by aerocom

SkiBunny;

We don't just get it wrong sometimes. There are times when you want to pull your hair out because you can't figure out what the count is. The fact is that most forecasts and predictions are destined to be wrong. You have to accept this fact. Lose the ego and keep going. Elliott is just a tool, when used properly, it will help you quantify the degree of risk or reward in the market. To be successful, as with any method, you must have a plan and use money management.

If I can be of assistance, call on me.

Good Luck.

Well said and put, and like you said, most are wrong.
once i see those wxy or strange abc or truncated waves, i know most are wrong. Those simple clear count are mostly those that are right, remember when elliot derived EW, he did not come out those wxy.
why, cause most cannot see the bigger picture and try to justify their count by coming out with "forced" count and hence u will see lots of wxy/abc.
as for myself, i also got it wrong sometime but I am mostly right, especially on the bigger picture/time frame.
I have already found the holy grail but it is also not 100%, i would say 80%, but that is enough to make me the special one.

Once those forced count are minimized, then you will see vast improvement in the accuracy of ew count, simple and clear count is the best.
Totally agree that must have a plan and use money management.
Good luck

Originally Posted by aerocom

Nice to see. Just remember this move should continue for a while. If it goes through resistance from 57-5500 area next stop is Jan's low. However, RSI readings are lowest since Nov 24, 2011.

Good Luck.

yap, i am shorted near the top and is still holding for new low since i know wave e ended on the last top
we are in wave 3 down, those complex corrective count is wrong, it is a leading diagonal, if u look at the daily, it is crystal clear, wave 3 of 3 now