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05-30-2012, 11:30 PM #45496
My 3z semafor shows No.2 is very important point I should take note in 1 hour movement. That could be impulse wave 1, 2,3 and 4 and 5. On Top I notice it stops to progress onward to 1.03. So I added to my short on USDCAD.
05-30-2012, 11:51 PM #45497
Weekly Chart USD_MXN
New here on the forums. Been an EW fan for a while but occasionally I get overwhelmed with the myriad of wave counts and possibilities. I've used it quite successfully in the past but only when it seems crystal clear to me so not all that often. I have the Frost/Prechter book and I need to revisit that to brush up a bit. Thought I would get back into it and figured I would join the folks over here.
I've attached a weekly view of the usd_mxn. I haven't completed the counts as you can see but you get the idea here. I was actually long this trade and took 200+ pips but I got in right at the beginning of what I've labeled sub wave (not sure of the proper terminology here) iii which is the current move. Clearly price has moved far greater than 200 pips. About 1200 in fact. I got out because I wanted to book profits but primarily because I didn't have this wave count. I want to re-examine EW so that I can project price movements further and have the confidence to ride out trades or know when to re-enter.
Would love to hear some thoughts from you guys. One of the things I find confusing is knowing how far back do you need to go in order to begin your wave counts. What is a big enough picture? Daily, weekly or monthly? I suppose it depends what time frame you want to trade off and go up one higher?
Anyway, I would appreciate any input. Thanks!
05-31-2012, 12:01 PM #45498
There are some basic rules that you overlooked. Wave 3 has to extend beyond the apex of wave 1. When you have a 5 wave move that does not go beyond wave 1, it is likely either wave a or wave 1 of 3. Therefore your entry was correct but the exit was real premature. Next, use channeling and do it early. Here a channel drawn from the origin of your wave 1 and the end of wave 2 and extended from the top of wave 1 or A would give you the probable extent of the move. When I look at the chart, I see possibly A-B-C. Again by using channeling, we would get an idea of the extent of the move. But, we also know that the move will most probably be a 1:1; that is C=A. If C exceeds A and extends beyond the channel then it is a 3.
Originally Posted by fxamro
Hope this helps.
05-31-2012, 12:39 PM #45499
EurUSD may be in near a reversal. On this chart, the minor channel has been violated and the over all move can be counted as a double 3 correction with the final wave truncating at greater than .618 of wave A. Actually, price penetrated the channel at .709 times wave A.
If this is only a consolidation, price should reverse at the channel in the 1.2585 to 1.2650 area then head down. However, since 1 is the dominate ratio, I would expect price to continue down into at least the 1.2160 area and possibly to 1.1865. If we consider the initial channel test C as A, then C has exceeded the length of A and adds to the probability of a reversal.
Last edited by aerocom; 05-31-2012 at 12:44 PM.
05-31-2012, 01:09 PM #45500
This chart shows the probable patterns in play and resistance points where a reversal is likely. You will note that the final point of resistance is in the area of 1.2819. However, the potential H&S neckline at 1.2497 is a probable point of reversal.
Another point of interest here is that the ratio .707 is a harmonic vibration ratio. A ratio close to the harmonic .709 is a constantly recurring ratio in this pair.
Last edited by aerocom; 05-31-2012 at 01:12 PM.
05-31-2012, 02:05 PM #45501
Here my GBP$ chart indicates that the down move in the Gbp$ wave a or 1, is probably complete. The trend line in this chart is a 2-4 trend line projected from wave 1. With a throwover, it indicates a terminal move. Here you could use wave 3 in which case wave 5 should not touch the line. If it is complete, we can expect a retrace into the 50 to 61.8 area. Price would be in the area of wave 4 at 1.5833 and wave iv of 3 at 1.5940.
I would point out that I watch the Lunar and Delta guys and do my own time cycles. I have a time cycle ending in the Gbp$ on tomorrow and the Lunar and Delta's are on Monday.
I plan to close my shorts today unless there is a move down and have moved my stops to 1.5500.
05-31-2012, 03:57 PM #45502
Honestly the EUR/USD count is giving me a head ache lately. I like one of the counts you posted previously as it seems to solve the issue. I'm glad i came back to the forum!
05-31-2012, 06:58 PM #45503
What you guys think of this count?
05-31-2012, 11:45 PM #45504
"What you guys think of this count?"
close but not good
wave 5 probably ended or soon, good luck if u still looking for more drop
maybe your count will work
05-31-2012, 11:55 PM #45505
I think a triangle has completed. I like my count because there are common ratio relationships between the waves of the triangle. But this one is similar to one EWI published and an earlier rendition of mine. I didn't have any common ratios and switched to the earlier post. However, there are two ratios of the square in this chart.
In any event, I get similar targets in the area of 1.0858 here and 1.0737 in the earlier post.
Last edited by aerocom; 06-01-2012 at 12:00 AM.
06-01-2012, 09:11 AM #45506
price now showing what i meant
Originally Posted by stanchiam
anyway, uncle ben, we need more stimulus, patient dying, need another dose of cold hard injection
ps: already expected it fun da mentally, wave count also agree
just hope it can hit the level i want
such a strong rejection, if it hold, then it will show market is serious about the rejection, probably they are betting fed will do something
next week will show what mr market want
Last edited by stanchiam; 06-01-2012 at 09:54 AM.
06-01-2012, 11:18 PM #45507
Another Eur$ chart with the 0-2 or B channel line drawn. If this is a wave 3, price will break the channel and go below the 1.1800 area. However, if it is a wave C look for price to intersect the lower channel line below 1.1900 and bounce.
The move up should end in the 1.26 to 1.28 area.
06-02-2012, 10:55 AM #45508
Just joined the forum, would like to post some of my counts but wasn't sure what you guys use to create and upload your charts- I just use the charting features at Daily Fx, but wasn't sure if you could copy and paste from there or if I need to download some charting software. Any help would be appreciated.
06-02-2012, 12:44 PM #45509
I use netdania for charts but you can use any charting software. I print screen and paste into pcpaint. Please use a light background.
Originally Posted by RonPaul
06-03-2012, 08:47 AM #45510
Looking for a correction higher from here, but not discounting the possibilty for one more low.