Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Here's my current long term count for Gold, I believe we may be about to enter a very explosive 5th wave upwards- what do you guys think?

Originally Posted by RonPaul

Here's my current long term count for Gold, I believe we may be about to enter a very explosive 5th wave upwards- what do you guys think?

In wave terms, Wave 4 should correct to wave 4 of 1 less degree. So either your count is off or there is something else going on. I am looking for something in the area of 1469.

Good Luck.

Here is the zoomed in section of the corrective triangle, wave 4, from my long term count I just posted. If this is correct, this next move in Gold will be quite explosive...any thoughts?

Originally Posted by aerocom

In wave terms, Wave 4 should correct to wave 4 of 1 less degree. So either your count is off or there is something else going on. I am looking for something in the area of 1469.

Good Luck.

That's more of a guideline than a hard and fast rule...I think the fact that we have a pretty text-book 5-wave 3-3-3-3-3 triangle pattern is a more powerful confirmation of the count rather than attempting to force it into a count where it retraces back to wave 4 of previous degree.

Originally Posted by apipintime

Looking for a correction higher from here, but not discounting the possibilty for one more low.

I wish you would post more. Now that is out the way, I think the move down has completed and I am calling it 1 or A on the way to 1.18 or lower, possibly below parity. Here, understand that the entire move down was 4.396 times wave 1. The ratio when projected forward from 1.6300 would only yield a price of 1.1758.

Here is why I think it is over. Refer to the chart that I posted on 5/31. Wave 1 as labeled took 9 days in duration. Wave 2 took 1 and wave 3 was 8 days in duration. Waves 2 and 3 are equal in time to wave 1. Wave 5 is equal in time to wave 1 and waves 2 and 3 combined. Wave 4 at 4 days is exactly 50% of the duration of wave 3. The entire duration of the larger degree wave was 31 days

From a price standpoint, wave 3 is 1.83 times wave 1 and wave 5 is 2.47 times wave 1. Wave 5 is clearly extended.

Wave 2 of the larger degree may be short in both duration and price as I have a cycle high on June 11 Which is comparable to the ratio in time of wave 2:1.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by RonPaul

That's more of a guideline than a hard and fast rule...I think the fact that we have a pretty text-book 5-wave 3-3-3-3-3 triangle pattern is a more powerful confirmation of the count rather than attempting to force it into a count where it retraces back to wave 4 of previous degree.

I understand. That is why I used the word should ( recommendation or opinion) as opposed to shall (rigid or rule.) Here is a question. If it is a triangle, What kind is it?

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

I understand. That is why I used the word should ( recommendation or opinion) as opposed to shall (rigid or rule.) Here is a question. If it is a triangle, What kind is it?

Good Luck.

I believe the classification would be a contracting, descending triangle although I'm more interested in discussing the mechanics of the triangle and whether it's correctly labeled...the only odd thing about it is how wave D seems to overshoot the declining trend line, although I'm not sure if that's necessarily a problem. The fact that we had a powerful bounce at the end of last week that seemed to correspond with the wave E termination seems to be a fairly strong indicator that it is the correct count...what do you think?

Originally Posted by RonPaul

I believe the classification would be a contracting, descending triangle although I'm more interested in discussing the mechanics of the triangle and whether it's correctly labeled...the only odd thing about it is how wave D seems to overshoot the declining trend line, although I'm not sure if that's necessarily a problem. The fact that we had a powerful bounce at the end of last week that seemed to correspond with the wave E termination seems to be a fairly strong indicator that it is the correct count...what do you think?

I have posted several times over the past month or so what I think. Gold is going down. Either way you count it, the pattern is a classic zig-zag that indicates a probable target of 1402.

If you draw a valid B-D line and price overshoots, redraw the line. However, the price of wave D cannot go below or above which ever is appropriate, the termination point of wave B.

In this case if it is a triangle, it would most closely approximate that of a barrier. Barriers break to the flat side. The direction of movement in a triangle is indicated by wave B. That is why RN Elliott stated " ...it is important to fix wave B ...early in the move." Here, wave B indicates a move down.

Good Luck.

Hi traders.

its been a lot of talk about Usdjpy lately. here is my take. market still sideways but bearish!


________
twitter

Originally Posted by aerocom

I have posted several times over the past month or so what I think. Gold is going down. Either way you count it, the pattern is a classic zig-zag that indicates a probable target of 1402.

If you draw a valid B-D line and price overshoots, redraw the line. However, the price of wave D cannot go below or above which ever is appropriate, the termination point of wave B.

In this case if it is a triangle, it would most closely approximate that of a barrier. Barriers break to the flat side. The direction of movement in a triangle is indicated by wave B. That is why RN Elliott stated " ...it is important to fix wave B ...early in the move." Here, wave B indicates a move down.

Good Luck.

Very interesting, I never considered this possibility before...I'll definitely be watching this price over the next few weeks and attempting to determine which count works...thanks for the response

Awesome yeah..

[QUOTE=RonPaul;1173352]Here's my current long term count for Gold, I believe we may be about to enter a very explosive 5th wave upwards- what do you guys think?

I think the triangle is not yet complete (see also previous post on silver). Good luck!

I am still holding usdcad from last week. Now I short again at 1.04. I do not believe it keeps moving up. It must change direction this week. Can see it from EURUSD.

This is my gold count. I think we have just completed a double zigzag. I like this count the best because it is simple and the proportions feel right to me. I also like 10frank01's count I think it is a good alternate to my count because we cant rule out that a triangle is still developing yet. However I think it is less likely because the wave c low slightly broke the wave a low but not enough to totally rule it out. I am long as of Friday from 1563 stop at b/e looking to hold long term. We will see...

[QUOTE=Melterra;1174170]This is my gold count.(.....) However I think it is less likely because the wave c low slightly broke the wave a low but not enough to totally rule it out. (......)]

In my price quotes, the low of wave A (26.05 for silver, 1522 for Gold) is lower than the low of C (26.75 for silver, 1526 for gold)... But I like your count, a good count... Good luck.