Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Hello EW Traders,

You know when mainstream media gets a hold of a concept or idea, it is probably worth doing or believing the complete opposite.

A friend of mine emailed me the link to this Forbes article on Elliott wave that talks about the collapse of the stock market and Facebook.

I was a little bearish on the market and bearish on Facebook before I saw the headline. But if it in the headlines, I figure I needed to reexamine my bearish stance and look for reasons to fade what I and the crowd believe:
Elliott Waves Warn Of Downside In Stocks, Unfriendly Future For Facebook - Forbes

So I am looking for reasons to get long the equity market and the currencies that mimic its movements as well as Facebook.

What are your thoughts?

Regards,

Greg McLeod
DailyFX Forum Moderator/Trader

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello EW Traders,

You know when mainstream media gets a hold of a concept or idea, it is probably worth doing or believing the complete opposite.

A friend of mine emailed me the link to this Forbes article on Elliott wave that talks about the collapse of the stock market and Facebook.

I was a little bearish on the market and bearish on Facebook before I saw the headline. But if it in the headlines, I figure I needed to reexamine my bearish stance and look for reasons to fade what I and the crowd believe:
Elliott Waves Warn Of Downside In Stocks, Unfriendly Future For Facebook - Forbes

So I am looking for reasons to get long the equity market and the currencies that mimic its movements as well as Facebook.

What are your thoughts?

Regards,

Greg McLeod
DailyFX Forum Moderator/Trader

I agree, there have been an enormous amount of articles on CNBC and Bloomberg lately talking about the "death of equities" and the potential for "global recession," which should give alarm to any short sellers out there...however trying to time a market reversal based on news items is very tricky I've found...equities could easily loose another 10% before rebounding even if we are near a bottom...I prefer to use Saettelle's sentiment indicators for a more quantitative analysis of potential tops and bottoms

Originally Posted by aerocom

This could be the end of the correction. Price bounced off the 76.4 retracement level. However, the previous bounce came at the 61.8%.

Good Luck.

More confident today that the correction is over. When checked against the ROC, 36 period, price moved down while ROC moved up. However, still need a sustained channel break the be sure.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

price now showing what i meant
anyway, uncle ben, we need more stimulus, patient dying, need another dose of cold hard injection


ps: already expected it fun da mentally, wave count also agree
just hope it can hit the level i want
such a strong rejection, if it hold, then it will show market is serious about the rejection, probably they are betting fed will do something
next week will show what mr market want

euraud drop show risk are coming back, aud gaining more than eur (au in wave 3 up now...lol)
everything is as expected, too smooth sailing
hope it work out really well for you too
good luck

I still look at the S&P in bullish way. EURUSD. . Gold. USDCAD.

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello EW Traders,

You know when mainstream media gets a hold of a concept or idea, it is probably worth doing or believing the complete opposite.

A friend of mine emailed me the link to this Forbes article on Elliott wave that talks about the collapse of the stock market and Facebook.

I was a little bearish on the market and bearish on Facebook before I saw the headline. But if it in the headlines, I figure I needed to reexamine my bearish stance and look for reasons to fade what I and the crowd believe:
Elliott Waves Warn Of Downside In Stocks, Unfriendly Future For Facebook - Forbes

So I am looking for reasons to get long the equity market and the currencies that mimic its movements as well as Facebook.

What are your thoughts?

Regards,

Greg McLeod
DailyFX Forum Moderator/Trader

My instincts were correct in fading the crowd. It pays to be a contrarian..sometimes.

Is this the first wave of a 3-wave correction of the downtrend in risk assets or is this the beginning s of a new longer term uptrend?

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

My instincts were correct in fading the crowd. It pays to be a contrarian..sometimes.

Is this the first wave of a 3-wave correction of the downtrend in risk assets or is this the beginning s of a new longer term uptrend?

Hi Greg;

I saw your post yesterday. I am familiar with and respect both of the ellioticians mentioned in the article, I sometimes disagree with their counts. To answer your question, the turn is near. In my time cycle analysis of all the major pairs, a high should come sometimes between today (June 6) and June 10. However, the next low should be in the last week of June but by July 3rd. In my view these time cycles are consistent with a wave 4-5. As a case in point, I use the AudUsd. The pair should top in the 9969 to 9999 area. It is already showing in my view a c wave ED in progress. The .618 ow wave 3 of the ED would indicate a price of 9969 followed by an 800+p decline.

Good Luck.

The triangle wave. 4 which began from 1.3500(25 Jan 2009 ) finished at 1.6340 (30 Apr 2012) and the drop which followed that triangle is an Impulsive wave 5 of the cycle which began from 2.115 (28 Oct 2007).
The whole move from 1.6340 to the last bottom is mast likely Wave i of Wave 5 which is targeting 1.3xxx area.
I attached my weekly count to clarify my view .

Originally Posted by stanchiam

nice, here is my daily bigger picture
wave e trying to push as high as possible

sometime i really wonder if there are eyes looking at these post here and trying to stop us all out...lol

nice count and right on the dot

Originally Posted by stanchiam

2 months plus passed, waiting for new low

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images...224062139.png/

new low and target hit, we shall see how high can it go next

Originally Posted by aerocom

Hi Greg;

I saw your post yesterday. I am familiar with and respect both of the ellioticians mentioned in the article, I sometimes disagree with their counts. To answer your question, the turn is near. In my time cycle analysis of all the major pairs, a high should come sometimes between today (June 6) and June 10. However, the next low should be in the last week of June but by July 3rd. In my view these time cycles are consistent with a wave 4-5. As a case in point, I use the AudUsd. The pair should top in the 9969 to 9999 area. It is already showing in my view a c wave ED in progress. The .618 ow wave 3 of the ED would indicate a price of 9969 followed by an 800+p decline.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

ending diagonal is just one of a possibility
just show you my chart to let you see another
and never say it is impossible to count bearish, do not rule out any count
cheers

ps: hope i am not talking too much...lol
i better go into hiding mode

target Y completed, new high?
very lucky to won a few rounds, perhaps aero is right this round? good luck

Originally Posted by stanchiam

nice count and right on the dot

Do you ever trade gold, and if so- do you have a current long-term count on it?

Originally Posted by RonPaul

Do you ever trade gold, and if so- do you have a current long-term count on it?

nope........but there are already a couple posted here by other bros

I try to look at EURUSD in bullish way. It seems more suitable to fit the bar movement for monthly and yearly. I am not so sure too but I believe the current move down to 1.23 is not really a strong impulse. What is a strong impulse ? Black A shows a really good strong impulse. Most people almost have the same chart to my bear chart. I agree on the bear count but I have a doubt on this bear count. Well I still holding it at 1.24. EURUSD is totally different with GBPUSD. I look at Mr. Stamchiam US index chart all full with ABC. I look at the expert US index chart, it seems with expanding diagonal 1,2,3,4 and 5. But it more looks like ABC to me. Problem is I only have the metatrader to do analysis and does not have the previous past year data from 1975 to fit to my automatic counting system. The more I share, more I discover the past. Funny yeah.

dear ms joey,

using ew is not that easy especially when both bullish and bearish count can be applicable
however, using cross analysis, one can clean up most of the dust and see a clearer picture
pass few months i have seen plenty of count and most got it wrong due to one main major reason, overlapping and confusing waves
just bear in mind market trend a short time and consolidate most of the time, it will be hard for most who try to use ew
anyway i am glad i am lucky enough to get it right most of the time for major trend changes
may the force be with you too
cheers