Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

GBPUSD Daily



GBPUSD H4

It looks like moving upward 5 waves but I examine it again, it looks like ABC because of the large spike at B. What do you think ? The current 4 hour bar is not so strong too.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

usdx projection minimal target hit on the dot and reverse
it did not disappoint, good luck

50% retracement hit, expecting further drop after a upward retracement
good luck

ps: have just shown its predicted projected target and the next target after hitting projection target before it happen

Allright, Going to stay on with these few pairs that they are not go against the S&P: EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD. Headache to deal with USDCHF, GBPUSD and USDJPY. Have to leave it.

Following on from my last post

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/ellio...ml#post1166227 (Elliott Wave Trading Discussion)

It did indeed push to a 5th wave low and a reversal as expected, and it appears to be involved in some sort of correction to correct the move from the May 1st period, as i posted before the same 5 wave move is seen on many of the US$ crosses such as GBPUSD,EURUSD and even USDCHF, so virtually all the majors that are linked with the DX are in a correction mode

Now corrections have a nasty habit of making life tough for traders, so it comes down to experience as there are many forms this can take, but if you overlay the 6C chart with the ES you can clearly see how using the 6C pair is a useful tool for US stock markets aka the ES e-mini contract

So with a 5 wave decline in US stock markets as well as the 6C contract the odds say that we are involved in a correction now in both US stocks as well as USDCAD aka 6C

6C = USDCAD inverted





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Count by expert is quite messy. Previous I was guided to his direction until the EW count was too difficult to apply. So I revised and adjusted a bit to explain the current weekly movement of S&P for yearly.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

Count by expert is quite messy. Previous I was guided to his direction until the EW count was too difficult to apply. So I revised and adjusted a bit to explain the current weekly movement of S&P for yearly.

Might be messy to you but, the idea and count is valid. I think it is a valid expanding triangle. If it is, the market is in super cycle wave4 and will not top until about 2018 or 2019. My date estimate is based on the Smith cycle which has the market ending higher in years ending in 8. In order to accomplish the year 8 high, the market would need until July of 2013 to complete the current wave "D." Then about 38 to 50% of the time of wave c complete wave E (2 years or less, see 2000 to 2002.) That would equate to a wave E low in mid to late 2014. The wave 5 rally would then take about 4 years to complete in late 2018.

The events that would lead to this climax are a continued decline in Europe, Russia China and India coupled with the US allowing corporations to repatriate funds in the US TAX FREE. Afterwards, the US would enter a period of rapid and long-term decline.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

50% retracement hit, expecting further drop after a upward retracement
good luck

ps: have just shown its predicted projected target and the next target after hitting projection target before it happen

"expecting further drop after a upward retracement"
as expected, nice drop

Originally Posted by aerocom

Might be messy to you but, the idea and count is valid. I think it is a valid expanding triangle. If it is, the market is in super cycle wave4 and will not top until about 2018 or 2019. My date estimate is based on the Smith cycle which has the market ending higher in years ending in 8. In order to accomplish the year 8 high, the market would need until July of 2013 to complete the current wave "D." Then about 38 to 50% of the time of wave c complete wave E (2 years or less, see 2000 to 2002.) That would equate to a wave E low in mid to late 2014. The wave 5 rally would then take about 4 years to complete in late 2018.

The events that would lead to this climax are a continued decline in Europe, Russia China and India coupled with the US allowing corporations to repatriate funds in the US TAX FREE. Afterwards, the US would enter a period of rapid and long-term decline.

Good Luck.

Sorry could you show me your count ? I am interested to know. Expert count does not match to the current movement of weekly and monthly bar and of last year high. I do not believe that we are still in wave B and last week was a really strong impulse movement. This would not be possible to see a such strong impulse if let said we are going down to wave C. Dollar index is moving down and this shows this time could be the last supercycle wave 5- S&P is exist. It could never be 12 12 count for dollar index. I do not know whether this is good or not but I can see dollar is going to inflated to zero.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

Sorry could you show me your count ? I am interested to know. Expert count does not match to the current movement of weekly and monthly bar and of last year high. I do not believe that we are still in wave B and last week was a really strong impulse movement. This would not be possible to see a such strong impulse if let said we are going down to wave C. Dollar index is moving down and this shows this time could be the last supercycle wave 5- S&P is exist. It could never be 12 12 count for dollar index. I do not know whether this is good or not but I can see dollar is going to inflated to zero.

Here it is. In my view, last weeks movement is a B wave. However, the alternate Red a would need to play out or wave v would have to be underway and exceed the fith wave principle length of .618, for this to be an expanding triangle. Otherwise it is a B or X wave that would possibly make a new high below the wave B high. Either way you measure, or count, the up movement is probably not complete as the waves A and C are not equal. I guess we should say that we have a truncated or short C wave. I didn't.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Here it is. In my view, last weeks movement is a B wave. However, the alternate Red a would need to play out or wave v would have to be underway and exceed the fith wave principle length of .618, for this to be an expanding triangle. Otherwise it is a B or X wave that would possibly make a new high below the wave B high. Either way you measure, or count, the up movement is probably not complete as the waves A and C are not equal. I guess we should say that we have a truncated or short C wave. I didn't.

Good Luck.

hmm...looking at your usd chart, you are expecting a new low in usd to complete wave iv
i wonder why then you are count usd as 1212 up, oh i see, u think usd still have more room to go up and dont expect short wave.
maybe u r right, but i chart what i see now as a whole. The likely hood of it going down is higher then up.
As said before, i expect a new low in usd before the real surge up then the real fall down, maybe i will get lucky with my guess again.
Cheers and good luck.

ps: I am impress with your time estimation of those top and bottom.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

hmm...looking at your usd chart, you are expecting a new low in usd to complete wave iv
i wonder why then you are count usd as 1212 up, oh i see, u think usd still have more room to go up and dont expect short wave.
maybe u r right, but i chart what i see now as a whole. The likely hood of it going down is higher then up.
As said before, i expect a new low in usd before the real surge up then the real fall down, maybe i will get lucky with my guess again.
Cheers and good luck.



ps: I am impress with your time estimation of those top and bottom.

Thanks for the kudos. I have been using Gann techniques in conjunction with Elliott. The combination is killer. However, Your statement about my expectations in regard to the USD is not true. You are using a chart posted over a month ago to draw an erroneous conclusion. I have not posted because, you have the same count and post constantly. Therefore no need for me to post the same thing.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Thanks for the kudos. I have been using Gann techniques in conjunction with Elliott. The combination is killer. However, Your statement about my expectations in regard to the USD is not true. You are using a chart posted over a month ago to draw an erroneous conclusion. I have not posted because, you have the same count and post constantly. Therefore no need for me to post the same thing.

Good Luck.

yes, i agree the combo will be a killer. I have not been able to get a grab on gann due to insufficient info and the right book and thus my timing is off.
Great that you are able to master gann. Happy trading.

Areocom, I have been following the same count as you for a while. And I agree that the expanding triangle is the most likely count ( although it could turn into a x wave like you said if it fails to make a new high.) However I am confused by your placement of the e wave. In a expanding triangle wouldn't we expect e to brake the low of c? I expect it to bottom in wave E around the 5000 level (in DJIA). Maybe that is just how you labeled it and you are not implying wave e ends there anyway I just wanted to clarify.