My bias is very simple, euro would not collapse as many 1-2. 1-2.1-2 counters would like to see. Everytime it came down, people kept screaming that it would go to parity and below. It never did. Fundi-wise, however foolish and procrastinating politicians are, there has been too much political capital put into the EU project. Also the current financial/banking system in the world is too joint together to have a euro collapse now. Eventually something or someone would have to compromise. I think people underestimated the geopolitical underlying of the EU project, however flawed I think it structurally is.
As for wave e not in Feb/2012, it's not about rules, but just a bit of commen sense judgement. To me it seems too small and looks odd, that's all. And that zig-zag in d can have different division and so make it end in June too. The thing about EW is that it's hard to pinpoint a count that is 'the' right count. It's all about if it 'looks' right and if it can give the right direction. In that sense, all a bit of a muddled guess. Even for those 1-2/1-2 ers.. they have different subdivisions too. At the end of the day, it's really a pick of 2: up or down from here. I've taken my pick.
Well I agree with some of what you say and some I will leave alone. As this is an elliott site, I will stick to the analysis. Part of what you say is true. When I do elliott though, I try to think probability based on price action and past patterns. I understand that elliott is not about arriving at the right count because most of the time you will not. You can however, select from the possible counts what you at the time think is most probable. Some of that is the "right look." But, it goes beyond the 50/50 selection you speak off. Elliott is a tool that will assist you when applied properly, in arriving at the correct market direction. It will help you quantify risk. That direction will vary depending on a traders time constraints. Basically, you cannot use an hourly chart to determine the weekly or monthly trend. So, you have to think time frame. I also use other technical analysis methods along with elliott to assist me in determining trend. In the end if you have the trend correct, you should book a return on the trade.
Now, as for my chart, it is indeed a triangle and wave e did indeed end in Feb 2012. That fact is confirmed by the 14 period RSI. If you place proper lines on the RSI high to high on top and B-D on the low, you can count the triangle that shadows price and see the break and retest.
You can PM me if you need assistance with technical analysis including elliott. There is also a copy of "Edwards and Magee" floating around on the internet.
Here is the quote from your previous post "I think we will bounce up in corrective patterns in the form of a minor wave for the next couple weeks, then it will drop again to complete intermediate pattern (Y) ." Your chart shows the pricing moving above 1.50. Is price in the Euro$ going to rise 2500 points in 2 weeks or is it going to drop 2500 to your wave Y or; is it going to bounce around in a corrective move for 2 weeks and drop?
Awesome. Your chart is so wonderful to me but it looks a bit messy on Supercycle wave. It should be higher than 2007. I try to look everywhere for this historical chart but I could not get it. It is a guideline to me. Cool. Thanks.
and one more thing about your count on usdx daily - for me your abc correction of big move down is simply too small - in price and in time
Thanks for the information. I will analyse it. Now the index moves away from 38.2. Next month is coming and it will be a big move. Dollar is losing power.
Silver usually leads. What do you see there? Consider Ganns rule of four.
Good Luck.
This is H4 Gold. The Yellow line becomes flat. Price will move up above yellow line and retrace back to yellow line next month or maybe not. Black circle is a strong support point - A B C. A point is truncated point. Therefore i believe it has completed the cycle wave 4. I do not use Ganns rule. Emotion cannot be applied under such circumstance. So I rely my own NO.3 program. All the count of the pairs will be accurate if metatrader has all the alpha historical data. This program i set it up by using fibo figure. Gold is more interesting than silver. Allright, I will look into silver. Cheers.
This is H4 Gold. The Yellow line becomes flat. Price will move up above yellow line and retrace back to yellow line next month or maybe not. Black circle is a strong support point - A B C. A point is truncated point. Therefore i believe it has completed the cycle wave 4. I do not use Ganns rule. Emotion cannot be applied under such circumstance. So I rely my own NO.3 program. All the count of the pairs will be accurate if metatrader has all the alpha historical data. This program i set it up by using fibo figure. Gold is more interesting than silver. Allright, I will look into silver. Cheers.
Same problem with chart as previously stated. However, I see a short term move up to complete wave c of the 3 wave correction in the area of 1671 to 1700 then a down move to complete wave 4 in the 1402 to 1348 area.
Thanks for the information. I will analyse it. Now the index moves away from 38.2. Next month is coming and it will be a big move. Dollar is losing power.
I took a longer term approach to the USD using DXY. Here, the trend is up in either a wave 3 or C. I do expect some short term weakness before the next leg up. But, here price should ultimately exceed 90.
Same problem with chart as previously stated. However, I see a short term move up to complete wave c of the 3 wave correction in the area of 1671 to 1700 then a down move to complete wave 4 in the 1402 to 1348 area.
Good Luck.
I try to visualize what you mentioned. This month is over and confirm bull month. If it is going to complete C next month, then the monthly bar possibly is forming a monthly morning star if it is going to 1600 to 1700 area at the month end. Then the following month after monthly morning star surely is bull. Then overall count of 3 wave correction is totally not valid.
Here is my view of NZDUSD. The pair has retraced to the 70.7% retracement area. It could possibly go higher but not above the origin of wave 1. I think there is a little more upside in the AUdUSD but, it should reverse later today.
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Originally Posted by aerocom 
