Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

A Gap might be formed on monday for AUDUSD. How it is going to form ? Above or below. Difficult to use fibo due to a gap. It is good if above. Below no Good because this is not a strong engulfing. Very exciting moment.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Here is my count for the NzdUSD. I have a monthly which I think is in a diagonal that will peak in the 9500 to 9900 area. I am only posting this now because you prompted me to take a longer term look. Thank you. As a result of your prompting, I have changed my view but, I left the H&S pattern in tack on the weekly chart.

Now, in my view, the NzdUsd is in basically the same pattern as the AudUsd. It will go up Probably, into the 8457 to 8598 area C=A. Afterward, price will trade down probably in a zig-zag pattern for about 2 months to a price in the area of 7080 but possibly 7220 before completing the diagonal in the previously stated area of 9500-9800.

If you notice the wave 4 low price compares to an area on the chart that is identified as wave B of 3. This price target is consistent with the corrective price guideline. However, be aware, there are several invalidation points; one of which is the potential H&S pattern.

Good Luck.

Thank you very much for the chart. I've got a question. How come you've counted wave A of 1 in a 5 wave sequence and wave C of 1 in a 3 wave sequence? Same for wave 3. Shouldn't it be 5-3-5 (A-B-C)?

Originally Posted by aerocom

You share some of my concerns. If it turns at your indicated target about the trend line, you still can't rule out the triangle. It could also move down and reverse back up. I looked at the DXY, US dollar index. It looks like it could pull back to the 78.50 area which would mean further advance for the AudUsd.

Thanks.

Good Luck.

I see the possible triangle forming. That would thrust it above 1.10 for a new high this year. (The Gap) The S&P 500 warns of a gap down.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

nothing much to say, i have already did what is said and have shared many many charts
i talk in riddles as that will filter out those that are not in EW
now i am not in the mood to share, be it boasting or not, one cannot do it if one have not posted count that are in sync with mr market
i will greatly appreciate if u start boasting and post good charts here
if just post and run without follow up like a before and after chart, anyone can do it
cheers.

ps: wow, those negative energy, i am so afraid, i better run and get out, karma coming to get me? lol
i think u do not know why i have stop posting charts, it is the karma u r referring to, i do not want to affect other bros count directly or indirectly
that is also why i talk in riddle

and i am not here to please anyone, like me or not it does not matter, i will share and post chart when i think it is ok to do so
if there are objection to me posting charts, i will gladly not do so...cheers

I am sorry but I don't understand the logic here. Why do you want to filter out those not in EW? So that they can absolutely not learn anything from you? And why posting your charts is about affecting others' count which would give bad karma? I though sharing ideas and/or perhaps help point out some mistakes in others' charts would be extremely helpful and good 'karma', no matter one believes karma or not. Perhaps you see the logic in seeing the potential of others losing with a wrong count and remaining silent, but I fail to understand it. I thought people on forums try to share and learn from each other and if possible help each other make some money on the way.

But to each his own. I of course cannot judge what you like to do.

Cheers

Originally Posted by DolceVista

I am sorry but I don't understand the logic here. Why do you want to filter out those not in EW? So that they can absolutely not learn anything from you? And why posting your charts is about affecting others' count which would give bad karma? I though sharing ideas and/or perhaps help point out some mistakes in others' charts would be extremely helpful and good 'karma', no matter one believes karma or not. Perhaps you see the logic in seeing the potential of others losing with a wrong count and remaining silent, but I fail to understand it. I thought people on forums try to share and learn from each other and if possible help each other make some money on the way.

But to each his own. I of course cannot judge what you like to do.

Cheers

what u see is the surface only
what happen behind you do not know
i have been receiving emails and pm asking for advise, trades, entries etc etc
from then onward, i start to see that some people are starting to use my charts for their trading
some will be hitting big as some said they suffer lost and wanted me to help them recover it.
I have since then start to go into hide mode and do not want those people to follow blindly without knowing the reason or should i say, Elliot wave
I have advise people to go and read and learn, study their own charts again and again, there is no easy way.
Me myself have spent nearly a decade on EW and only this year have i attain the beyond ordinary level, i am now able to see what others dont
No short cut no easy way to get those eagle eyes

Anyway, i can see that if i keep posting, some of these newbies will suffer great losses as they do not know the logic i implied in my strategy
And I am not here to provide trading strategies, i do not provide entries or stop loss in my charts i posted.
Now can you see why it is not helpful to newbies? and why i say there may be bad karma?
Again, I will say it again, I do not want to affect bros directly or indirectly. Got it?

ps: attached is a screenshot of an email sent to me, they think there is such thing as "100% successful trades"
I will like to say again, although i am mostly right, I am not 100% right, it is impossible.
even jose mourinho do not always win every single matches, he will win most though
this is just one of the latest email i received, there are countless more before that. Now can u see the danger i see?

This will be the last post i will be giving on explanation, no more explanation of why i am doing what i did now
understand the logic or not does not matter, dont tell me i am arrogant, but i am special one....lol

Originally Posted by stanchiam

what u see is the surface only
what happen behind you do not know
i have been receiving emails and pm asking for advise, trades, entries etc etc
from then onward, i start to see that some people are starting to use my charts for their trading
some will be hitting big as some said they suffer lost and wanted me to help them recover it.
I have since then start to go into hide mode and do not want those people to follow blindly without knowing the reason or should i say, Elliot wave
I have advise people to go and read and learn, study their own charts again and again, there is no easy way.
Me myself have spent nearly a decade on EW and only this year have i attain the beyond ordinary level, i am now able to see what others dont
No short cut no easy way to get those eagle eyes

Anyway, i can see that if i keep posting, some of these newbies will suffer great losses as they do not know the logic i implied in my strategy
And I am not here to provide trading strategies, i do not provide entries or stop loss in my charts i posted.
Now can you see why it is not helpful to newbies? and why i say there may be bad karma?
Again, I will say it again, I do not want to affect bros directly or indirectly. Got it?

ps: attached is a screenshot of an email sent to me, they think there is such thing as "100% successful trades"
I will like to say again, although i am mostly right, I am not 100% right, it is impossible.
even jose mourinho do not always win every single matches, he will win most though
this is just one of the latest email i received, there are countless more before that. Now can u see the danger i see?

This will be the last post i will be giving on explanation, no more explanation of why i am doing what i did now
understand the logic or not does not matter, dont tell me i am arrogant, but i am special one....lol

Thanks. Perhaps if you simply post charts with EW counts when you have them as that's the thread's purpose then most problems would disappear. Everyone trades from their own understanding of EW and defines their own risk/stops. No-one else should be responsible but the one who puts on trade himself. Caveat Emptor!

Anyway, good luck.

Originally Posted by White-Fang

Thank you very much for the chart. I've got a question. How come you've counted wave A of 1 in a 5 wave sequence and wave C of 1 in a 3 wave sequence? Same for wave 3. Shouldn't it be 5-3-5 (A-B-C)?

White-Fang;

I assume you are looking at the monthly chart where the diagonal is depicted. You are correct. I counted it that way because the a-b area looks like an expanding triangle to me, on the monthly chart. However, when I go to the weekly chart and compress, it can and would be counted as a i-ii of wave C of 1.

As to wave 3, in my view wave C is two 5 wave sequences 5-3-5 each of which on lesser time frames subdivide into 2 5 wave sequences. If you can count it different, let me see your idea. It is my hope that we are here to try to help each other get better. I appreciate your help.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

White-Fang;

I assume you are looking at the monthly chart where the diagonal is depicted. You are correct. I counted it that way because the a-b area looks like an expanding triangle to me, on the monthly chart. However, when I go to the weekly chart and compress, it can and would be counted as a i-ii of wave C of 1.

As to wave 3, in my view wave C is two 5 wave sequences 5-3-5 each of which on lesser time frames subdivide into 2 5 wave sequences. If you can count it different, let me see your idea. It is my hope that we are here to try to help each other get better. I appreciate your help.

Good Luck.

Thank you Aerocom, I really appreciate your help, too. I will have a closer look at the Aussi longterm and let you know.

Good luck for the new trading week!

Here is a short term view on what could happen on the Aussi before further moving up.

Originally Posted by White-Fang

Here is a short term view on what could happen on the Aussi before further moving up.

I think you are probably correct and this count certainly covers my concern about the previous movement not moving further into the b wave.

Good Luck.

In then end, all these markets are the same. To that end, I am expecting long term dollar weakness. But before I get to that, let me say that I don't post here in an attempt to lure people over to some paid service because I don't have one. I don't have a Blog. The only way I get paid is by the market. I may screw up and get taken out but, so far, I have posted here longer than most and seen some that I thought were pretty good leave. I can also say there is a definite difference between being an analyst and a trader.

Now, the first chart was posted here in 2010 as part of an article I wrote that had the Eur$ in a long term diagonal. Leading or Ending was indeterminate then and now but, in my view the moves have been in threes. I still think the diagonal is playing out and wave 4 is nearly finished as depicted in the second chart.

In the 2012 chart, the red count is the alternate. I think the more probable count is in black.

As for the short term, I have altered my view slightly as a result of my long term analysis and the help of others on this board. I think wave 4 will end in the area of 1.2885 C=A but not higher that 1.2946 before it begins it's final descent to the 1.2002 to 1.1900 area.

Price needs to get further along but, at this time, I do not see price trading below the extreme of the expanded flat at 1.1875. Time will tell.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

I think you are probably correct and this count certainly covers my concern about the previous movement not moving further into the b wave.

Good Luck.

Yes, that was my concern, too. Otherwise wave X would have been very short. Also I expect some short term dollar strength. We'll see.

I have a similar count ( same concern here) for the NZD USD, but somehow I feel it's not quite right yet. Do you have a short term NZD count ?

Originally Posted by aerocom

....I think wave 4 will end in the area of 1.2885 C=A but not higher that 1.2946 before it begins it's final descent to the 1.2002 to 1.1900 area.

Price needs to get further along but, at this time, I do not see price trading below the extreme of the expanded flat at 1.1875. Time will tell.

Good Luck.

Even though the labels are different the end result is nearly the same. The only thing I'm not sure of is the (B) wave. See the link for the large chart as it has the alternate noted. If (B) is a running correction it brings to light the "are you kidding it can't get there" target of (C)=(A) of $1.1335. Otherwise I'm looking closer to $1.1885ish for a full move or $1.2300ish if it falls short.

As far as this current up move goes, I've got $1.2811 on a 4hr close basis with a potential bar peak of your $1.2885.

Big chart with alternate (B) wave:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd070112.png
(Degrees are A, a, (A), (a), [A], [a], {A},{a},,)

Originally Posted by TAfool

Even though the labels are different the end result is nearly the same. The only thing I'm not sure of is the (B) wave. See the link for the large chart as it has the alternate noted. If (B) is a running correction it brings to light the "are you kidding it can't get there" target of (C)=(A) of $1.1335. Otherwise I'm looking closer to $1.1885ish for a full move or $1.2300ish if it falls short.

As far as this current up move goes, I've got $1.2811 on a 4hr close basis with a potential bar peak of your $1.2885.

Big chart with alternate (B) wave:
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd070112.png
(Degrees are A, a, (A), (a), [A], [a], {A},{a},,)

Thanks TAfool. I saw you had made a recommendation for "motive wave." How is that working out. I am thinking about getting something that will help.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by White-Fang

Yes, that was my concern, too. Otherwise wave X would have been very short. Also I expect some short term dollar strength. We'll see.

I have a similar count ( same concern here) for the NZD USD, but somehow I feel it's not quite right yet. Do you have a short term NZD count ?

Here it is. You will notice a change from the previous post. wave c of B up could probably be counted as a three but, I counted it as a 5.

Good Luck.