Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

I think its a better guide than the dollar index. LOL I have been to busy shorting. But I did catch a few pips on USD/CAD. Back to the AUD and going higher. Look at the AUD/CHF. You will be amazed where its at.

EDIT: What I am getting at is I believe the AUD/USD dropped in a B wave. The AUD/CHF barely moved down from super highs for the year.

Peace

On closer look, I think that the usdsgd is in a b wave and I caught the c. It looks to be moving the inverse of audusd. Flat for the weekend.

Good Luck.

My portfolio for the 3rd quarter

T-bills = 33%

Currencies, commodities & stock futures:
Long USDCAD, long Gold/EUR, short S&P & Nasdaq futures

Equities:
Egyptian equities.
Issues based on valuation:
ETEL: Telecom Egypt
POUL: Cairo poultry
EGTS: Egyptian for tourism and resorts.
MIPH: Mina pharm

Average dividend payout on equities ~11%

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

Originally Posted by Luxuriant

I think its a better guide than the dollar index. LOL I have been to busy shorting. But I did catch a few pips on USD/CAD. Back to the AUD and going higher. Look at the AUD/CHF. You will be amazed where its at.

EDIT: What I am getting at is I believe the AUD/USD dropped in a B wave. The AUD/CHF barely moved down from super highs for the year.

Peace

I have been trying to figure this one out myself. Price was turned back just below parity which of course plays as resistance. I see on a weekly chart there is not only parity as resistance, but if price breaks above this level there is the 2010 high at 1.0152 (red line) and a gap higher up from November 2007 which goes from 1.0205 to 1.0249 (blue lines) which could turn price lower. It was also recently pointed out to me that the upper BB band is facing upward on the weekly and the stochastics I use do not show divergence.

Either way, I think one more test of parity or maybe a gap above at open since price is only 22 pips away. The other possibility is a head and shoulders which this weekly candle closed above the neck line (green line). I have been surprised by this rally as I was looking towards a retest of the large hammer left in August of last year. I still think price will retest it at some point but for now it is just wait and see what happens at this level. A chart is below showing the levels I mentioned.

Here is my Eur$ update. I am following a similar wave 5 of 1 or (A) count on usdchf.

The long term count is an alternate view to last weeks post. In this count I am considering the possibility of a double zig-zag with target into the 1.0752 area. Wave equality. I also think this would be in keeping with the Gbp$ B wave triangle. Wave E up should occur simultaneous to Wave B in the Eur$ about 1300 to 1600p.

This count is also consistent with a previous post by Szaman.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by stanchiam

Another myth busted

LOL. You are right Mr.S again. Congratulation. I avoid trading during the news launched. I short at 1.23. Just cannot trade something without confirmation. Here is my view now.. o...

So the dollar index will continue rally until next year. More it pulls back, more stronger it will be..

forget about eur$ - it's almost after move or it's trap (move from 2740 is B of flat)

uncle cable will show you the way

Originally Posted by szaman1977

forget about eur$ - it's almost after move or it's trap (move from 2740 is B of flat)

uncle cable will show you the way

What trap is that in Weekly chart ? Look at month bar. This month seems not yet complete.

What do you think of my second count ? If it is still extend until next next year then the second count will be valid as i look into the USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY. I revise all these 4 counts and it most probably will go for 2nd count. O. Mr. Aero, Mr. Tafool, Mr Saman1977 and KING of EW ... Please advise me..Thanks.

Originally Posted by JoeyLee

What do you think of my second count ? If it is still extend until next next year then the second count will be valid as i look into the USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY. I revise all these 4 counts and it most probably will go for 2nd count. O. Mr. Aero, Mr. Tafool, Mr Saman1977 and KING of EW ... Please advise me..Thanks.

If you are asking about the $ index, I think it is headed up in wave 5 and wave 5 of C is not yet complete. If you channel the $index on the weekly chart, you will see that the movements are corrective and are moving up in the channel. The next peak should come in around 85.11.

The Eur$ and Gbp$ are both in a down trend. I am sticking by my count posted yesterday. Either that or the one posted last week indicates more weakness in the Eur$.

As for the Gbp$, it is sill in wave D of the triangle and the triangle will not complete for another 3 to 6 months. According to my triangle count, see GBP$ Long term forum, wave C is equal to wave A of D at 1.4875. But, based on Euro$ expectations price may come up short in the 1.5000 to 1.4947 area.

The $CHF is in a 5th wave diagonal that may penetrate 1.000. Possibly 1.0024. Afterwards, I am expecting a decline back to the 8900 to 9000 area before the monster move up.

Good Luck.

istanbul xu100

This is the USDChf pair daily chart. In this scenario, a 3 wave correction will be followed by a 3 wave bounce. In any of the 5th wave scenarios, wave 3 will be the longest wave at 1.36 times wave 1 and should wave 5 reach the high target it will be about 91% of wave 3.

I think the Euro$ price is moving similarly and wave 5 will likely end in the same fashion in the 1.2000 area. However, .7 is a ratio that is common to movements in the Euro$ and price could move down to the 1.1940 to 1.1950 area (1.1947.)

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

If you are asking about the $ index, I think it is headed up in wave 5 and wave 5 of C is not yet complete. If you channel the $index on the weekly chart, you will see that the movements are corrective and are moving up in the channel. The next peak should come in around 85.11.

The Eur$ and Gbp$ are both in a down trend. I am sticking by my count posted yesterday. Either that or the one posted last week indicates more weakness in the Eur$.

As for the Gbp$, it is sill in wave D of the triangle and the triangle will not complete for another 3 to 6 months. According to my triangle count, see GBP$ Long term forum, wave C is equal to wave A of D at 1.4875. But, based on Euro$ expectations price may come up short in the 1.5000 to 1.4947 area.

The $CHF is in a 5th wave diagonal that may penetrate 1.000. Possibly 1.0024. Afterwards, I am expecting a decline back to the 8900 to 9000 area before the monster move up.

Good Luck.

Harmonic pattern see the same

The EURUSD looks like a mirror image of the USD/NOK if you look back into the early 70's. It seems evident that in 2008 this market put in its Cycle Wave C high which lasted aprox 8 years, Not only is that a fibonacci number it also is equal to the time of the initial advance into the early 90's (Cycle wave A). Notice that we made it right towards the wave IV of smaller degree which put in its high in the early 70's. The outlook is terribly bearish for this pair. If you have been resisting shorting due to what some would argue to be a bearish extreme in sentiment, perhaps you should reconsider at the breach of the neckline of the complex head and shoulders pattern that would end about 7 years of basically sideways movement!

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

Competent Trades

The EURGBP is in primary wave 3 down of Cycle wave 1/A. It seems evident from the running flat correction (that ended in a contracting ending diagonal wave C for primary wave 2) that the upcoming decline would most likely be the extended wave. Hence, If I were only trading currencies. This is what my trades would look like based on broad based analysis for the rest of the year.
Alternate count cycle wave V(red) is not complete and we are currently is a multiple zigzag wave 4(circle), hence we will avoid shorting the EURGBP directly, instead we will position ourselves in trades that are likely to work out regardless what occurs in the EURGBP but will profit handsomely if our preferred count works out.

Short EUR/USD
Short NZD/USD
Short CAD/JPY
Short AUD/JPY
Short NZD/JPY
Long USD/CAD
Long USD/CHF
Long USD/NOK
Long GBP/AUD
Long GBP/CAD
Long GBP/NZD
Long Gold/CAD

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

http://competent-trades.blogspot.com