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09-07-2012, 03:08 PM #46606
I agree that care should be taken. One of the reasons is the lower trend line you have depicted in your chart. While I am open to a triangle formation in a possible B wave, the lower line has significance dating back to 1981. The data past 1999 is projection.
Originally Posted by JimboFX
Projected backwards, the line was first tested in 1981 on the way down and broken in 1982. On the way up, the line was broken in 1986; tested and held in 1989, 1993 and 1997 before, being taken out in a decline in 1999.
The line was revisited in 2003 and broken to the up side. Afterwards, it was tested in 2005, 2010 and 2012 and held each test. Each test has resulted in a significant point movement. During the period before 2000, the minimum was 1030p. After 2000, the minimum movement has been 3006p from a retest. If price repeats its historical movements, it should move at least 1000 points before a reversal.
It is interesting to note that before 2000, after being broken to the upside, the line was first tests 3 years after the initial break. Then the next 2 tests came at about 4 year intervals. The break to the down side was about 2 years after the 3rd test. The time from the break up, to the break down was 12 years and 2 months.
Since 2000, the pattern of retest is not as consistent. The first retest came 2 years after the break up. The next was at 4 years and about 6 months followed by a retest at 2 years and 2 months. The pair has tested the line 3 times and should if history repeats, break the line on the 4th test.
If the time period after 2000 is similar in duration to the timeline before 2000, the pair should not break the line until sometime in mid year 2015. However, there is an indication the break will come earlier.
Another trend line that I have been watching has been broken to the down side and a retest of that line would be in the 1.3000 area. The significance is that price will have traveled about 1000p or about the same as the movement before the final break before 2000. Another is the time for the 1998 to 1999 round trip to the break was about 6 months. If this final pattern is repeated, price will break the trend line to the down side in November or December of 2012.
Each time price has broken below the line, it has remained below for about 4 years 6 months round trip. The cycle low to low is 15 years and 8 months which if maintained would indicate the next cycle low will occur about the month of October 2016.
Last edited by aerocom; 09-07-2012 at 03:14 PM.
Reason: correct spelling
09-07-2012, 04:16 PM #46607
Originally Posted by aerocom
I have a pending sell order in cable at 1.6100 for a position trade expecting 1.6300 to hold, and looking for 1.4800 in the coming weeks/months. This agrees with your eurusd projection that it should make a move higher.
09-07-2012, 05:05 PM #46608
What do you see that indicates 1.6100 as a target?
Originally Posted by tomaz
The idea with the Gbp$ is that you enter short on a break down below the trend line after the blow-off is finished. While I don't indicate a higher target for the pair one could occur. Additionally, if you look at Jimbofx's analysis of the EURGPB, you could conclude that divergence should occur between the Eur$ and Gbp$. That could indicate the Eur$ would rise and the Gbp$ would fall. It could also indicate that both would continue to rise but, the Gbp$ would rise at a lower rate. My analysis indicates that former.
As for the Eur$, from an Elliott standpoint, 1.2903 is the point where, if the pair is in wave 4, waves 2 and 4 would be equal. Anything above there would invalidate the diagonal and would not encounter resistance until about the 1.30 area.
Thanks for the input.
Last edited by aerocom; 09-07-2012 at 05:11 PM.
09-07-2012, 05:56 PM #46609
who will tell me that this is not possible ?
09-07-2012, 07:40 PM #46610
When I posted this last night in response to JoeyLee's post, I did not get a chance to post a chart. Here is a chart showing the gap and todays action to close it. Price went below the lower line of the gap as shown on the 4 hour chart, and then produced a bullish candle to retest the lower portion of the gap but still closed below the lower line. The 8 hour chart shows these two 4 hour candles combined for a doji, so sunday nights open could be interesting.
Originally Posted by Gizmo
09-07-2012, 10:39 PM #46611
I will. But, I will also qualify. The way you counted it is why. Now, if you move your big A to the 1875 low of May 2010 then count the remaining move as a flat, you move from possible to probable. But, again I think it has work to get there.
Originally Posted by szaman1977
09-08-2012, 05:18 AM #46612
don't get me wrong aero - my favourite scenario is the same as Jimbo showed ( my opinion about cycle with eur$ chart I showed few pages ago) but I'm open also for this possibility
all is about correlations with another pair which so many of you don't like
my explain I will start with EA weekly chart
I waited for last move down in showed diagonal but present move is monster and it's impulsive (we are on the end of w3) that for me wave from start 2009 is over.
rsi on daily now is near highest read since 2009. rsi of next 5w up after correction will give us final confirmation of game over.
In this sitation we should expect move to 1,63 - 1,75 as correction.
now let's speak about aussie
all of us expect new highs min 1,15 - me too
you showed even triangle with move from area 1.00 to 1,15
and this is my conclusion - how high eur$ must go if on aussie we need 1500 pips and when eur is much much stronger than aud ... ?
of course we have two conditions:
1) I'm right with EA
2) you're right with aussie
I hope that now you understand my point.
Last edited by szaman1977; 09-08-2012 at 09:47 AM.
09-08-2012, 06:33 AM #46613
09-08-2012, 10:54 PM #46614
I sorry guys i have different view . I think we have triple three pattern and ve go south. good lack to all.
I added US oil and i want us remark that if oil goes down as the euro goes down to. us oil will finish C wave at <30? A is 35.09 yes oil will by cheap and the last time.
Last edited by danko316; 09-09-2012 at 04:57 PM.
09-09-2012, 08:15 AM #46615
enn, you could be right on 4H chart, both inpulse or a triple 3 are possible so far.
Originally Posted by danko316
I'd like to see you daily count for 1.494-1.204, could you post that please? thx.
09-09-2012, 11:03 AM #46616
Last edited by skinnypuppy; 09-09-2012 at 11:23 AM.
09-09-2012, 06:00 PM #46617
I like your call here and have recounted the pair. As a result, I get a similar top as you when I extend wave 1 of Y by 2.058% I get 1.2868. But, according to my count we already have 3 equal waves in the pair with wave Z a little bit longer than both W and Y.
Originally Posted by danko316
I am not changing my long term position because only one of my targets exceeds the wave 4 extreme. However, I am open to a lower move.
Thanks for the post.
09-09-2012, 07:24 PM #46618
I understand the point you are trying to make. I just disagree with you. You will notice from the chart that there is a near perfect inverse correlation in the pair. However, if you are correct, and the entire move is being corrected, price of the EurAud should go back near 1.75 at the 61.8 retracement level.
Originally Posted by szaman1977
I agree the diagonal is complete and I think there is another move up to be expected. I think the move in the EurAud is a zig-zag possibly a double or tripple, that will move up to near the the terminus of wave 2 of the diagonal near 1.4100+/-.
I have counted the AudUsd. You will notice that simultaneous with the diagonal down in the AudUsd, the EurUSd completed its diagonal and rallied. With the rally in the AudUsd, the EurAud corrected in what I believe to be wave 4 and is moving up to complete wave 5.
Second, the Audusd has completed a diagonal and is probably correcting the diagonal. If it is, price should trade into the area of wave 2 or about 1.0500 before moving down in wave C or wave 3. Simultaneous with this move,the EurAud, should trade back to the 50 to 62% retracement of the move up in a wave B. If the AudUSd is correcting the diagonal the move down should come back to about 1.0280 which would be at 50% and about the mid point of wave b of A. That should give enough room for wave 5 in the EurAud to complete.
From there, the EurAud should pull back simultaneous with a rally of about 400p in the AudUsd and a decline of about 860+/-p in the EurUsd. The corrective target on the EurAud will probably be in the area of 1.2070 and 1.1972.
The EurUSd should bottom in the 1.20 area +/-; the Audusd should bottom in the 1.0050 area +/-; The EurAud movement will be dependent on which pair moves up the fastest and or furthest.
Just my view.
09-09-2012, 07:48 PM #46619
I see cable making a last spike to 6100, but not exceeding 6300, before gradually falling tp below 1.50, so a proper stop loss will be 6400 for a position trade short to sub 1.50
this is just my view and how i will trade. a 300 pip stop loss takes care of all the volatility, and if things go well it will eventually fall to sub 1.50.
are you positioned in any market?
09-10-2012, 05:49 AM #46620
Thanks for reposting your daily count
Originally Posted by danko316
on the daily chart, for the red A, did you mean a LD? but non of (i),(iii),(v) are impulse, how can it be a LD? for the red B, seemed you have a triangle c of wave B? but triangle can never be wave c according to EW rules.