Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Bulls vs. Bears: The Spread Betting Morning Update September 10 - 2012

Link to charts
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/eur-u...ml#post1322335

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/gbp-j...ml#post1322328 (Discuss USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and other JPY Pairs)

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/aud-n...ml#post1322329 (Discuss the AUD/USD, NZD/USD , USD/CAD and more)

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/gold-...ml#post1322331

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/globa...ml#post1322333

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/eur-u...ml#post1322335


Main presentation
Bulls vs bears spread betting market update September 10 2012on DailyFX Live Trading Room - live streaming video powered by Livestream


Q&A session
QA Bulls vs bears spread betting market update September 10 2012on DailyFX Live Trading Room - live streaming video powered by Livestream

Originally Posted by aerocom

I understand the point you are trying to make. I just disagree with you. You will notice from the chart that there is a near perfect inverse correlation in the pair. However, if you are correct, and the entire move is being corrected, price of the EurAud should go back near 1.75 at the 61.8 retracement level.

I agree the diagonal is complete and I think there is another move up to be expected. I think the move in the EurAud is a zig-zag possibly a double or tripple, that will move up to near the the terminus of wave 2 of the diagonal near 1.4100+/-.

I have counted the AudUsd. You will notice that simultaneous with the diagonal down in the AudUsd, the EurUSd completed its diagonal and rallied. With the rally in the AudUsd, the EurAud corrected in what I believe to be wave 4 and is moving up to complete wave 5.

Second, the Audusd has completed a diagonal and is probably correcting the diagonal. If it is, price should trade into the area of wave 2 or about 1.0500 before moving down in wave C or wave 3. Simultaneous with this move,the EurAud, should trade back to the 50 to 62% retracement of the move up in a wave B. If the AudUSd is correcting the diagonal the move down should come back to about 1.0280 which would be at 50% and about the mid point of wave b of A. That should give enough room for wave 5 in the EurAud to complete.

From there, the EurAud should pull back simultaneous with a rally of about 400p in the AudUsd and a decline of about 860+/-p in the EurUsd. The corrective target on the EurAud will probably be in the area of 1.2070 and 1.1972.

The EurUSd should bottom in the 1.20 area +/-; the Audusd should bottom in the 1.0050 area +/-; The EurAud movement will be dependent on which pair moves up the fastest and or furthest.

Just my view.

Good Luck.

Hello aerocom. The Esignal Advanced Get Elliott Wave counting software seems to agree with your bullish outlook for the Aussie. If the pair can take out the 1.0400, I would have more confidence in the next leg up. We might have to wait for the Fed and ECB to show their hand.

Any thoughts or feedback are welcome from aerocm or anyone else!

Thanks,

Greg

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello aerocom. The Esignal Advanced Get Elliott Wave counting software seems to agree with your bullish outlook for the Aussie. If the pair can take out the 1.0400, I would have more confidence in the next leg up. We might have to wait for the Fed and ECB to show their hand.

Any thoughts or feedback are welcome from aerocm or anyone else!

Thanks,

Greg

Hi Greg;

I think the pair is going up. I have tried to invalidate your count. The only thing I can find which is significant in my view, on the hourly chart, wave 3 subdivides but wave iii of 3 is the shortest wave. I think it is an a-b-c that is complete and look for a corrective decline back into the 1.0300- 1.0280 area before a further rise to at least 1.0500+/-.

Good Luck.

Here is an update on the Gbp$. This count is a lower time frame but the result is the same. I think the final leg of wave D is underway. Look to the 1.5000 area for a reversal in wave E.

See my post in the long-term GBP forum for a long term outcome.

Good Luck.

agreed with aerocom ...

Originally Posted by aerocom

Here is an update on the Gbp$. This count is a lower time frame but the result is the same. I think the final leg of wave D is underway. Look to the 1.5000 area for a reversal in wave E.

See my post in the long-term GBP forum for a long term outcome.

Good Luck.

Here is an Esignal Advance Get Elliott Wave Count for 60-Minute GBP/USD

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Here is an Esignal Advance Get Elliott Wave Count for 60-Minute GBP/USD

Thank you for your input here. It's obvious that my count is not the correct count. I will rework later this morning. But, just looking at possibilities, there are several above 1.6100. My thinking now is a wave 3 of 5 is underway with a target in the 1.6136 area.

Back in an hour or so.

Good Luck.

Gbp$ update. I changed the label of wave 4 and moved iii. I of course think this is the correct count. With a ratio of .71 times wave 3, I get a top of 1.6074. Most of you know I usually use .62 of wave 3 for a 5th wave. Caution 1.6116 is still a possibility but, I will short on a break below the upper trend line.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Thank you for your input here. It's obvious that my count is not the correct count. I will rework later this morning. But, just looking at possibilities, there are several above 1.6100. My thinking now is a wave 3 of 5 is underway with a target in the 1.6136 area.

Back in an hour or so.

Good Luck.

Hello aerocom! I really appreciate your posts and all of you contributions to this forum. I hope that others will return like franosh and marketwavez2, szaman1977, dave1199 as well as new faces.

I have my issues with these counts periodically as I see recounts often when I am in a trade based on the original count. 3's and 5's seem to be its Achilles heel. I bought it to help me with that. Alas the software has the same issues as my brain!

istanbul stock exchange futures:

Attachment 147903

Hello i am new in elliot trading, so is this prediction right, does it even make any sense?

Thank you

Originally Posted by Gregory McLeod

Hello aerocom! I really appreciate your posts and all of you contributions to this forum. I hope that others will return like franosh and marketwavez2, szaman1977, dave1199 as well as new faces.

I have my issues with these counts periodically as I see recounts often when I am in a trade based on the original count. 3's and 5's seem to be its Achilles heel. I bought it to help me with that. Alas the software has the same issues as my brain!

Yes Greg, I agree. Szaman just posted last weekend but the others have not been here in a while. Marketwavez left after a newbie came in and trashed him. They all made positive contributions. But, don't forget Brad, Big Mike, apipintime and a few others that show up every now and then.

The Gbp$ is banging up against the 78.6% level. If it gives way, I am going in.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

I agree that care should be taken. One of the reasons is the lower trend line you have depicted in your chart. While I am open to a triangle formation in a possible B wave, the lower line has significance dating back to 1981. The data past 1999 is projection.

Projected backwards, the line was first tested in 1981 on the way down and broken in 1982. On the way up, the line was broken in 1986; tested and held in 1989, 1993 and 1997 before, being taken out in a decline in 1999.

The line was revisited in 2003 and broken to the up side. Afterwards, it was tested in 2005, 2010 and 2012 and held each test. Each test has resulted in a significant point movement. During the period before 2000, the minimum was 1030p. After 2000, the minimum movement has been 3006p from a retest. If price repeats its historical movements, it should move at least 1000 points before a reversal.

It is interesting to note that before 2000, after being broken to the upside, the line was first tests 3 years after the initial break. Then the next 2 tests came at about 4 year intervals. The break to the down side was about 2 years after the 3rd test. The time from the break up, to the break down was 12 years and 2 months.

Since 2000, the pattern of retest is not as consistent. The first retest came 2 years after the break up. The next was at 4 years and about 6 months followed by a retest at 2 years and 2 months. The pair has tested the line 3 times and should if history repeats, break the line on the 4th test.

If the time period after 2000 is similar in duration to the timeline before 2000, the pair should not break the line until sometime in mid year 2015. However, there is an indication the break will come earlier.

Another trend line that I have been watching has been broken to the down side and a retest of that line would be in the 1.3000 area. The significance is that price will have traveled about 1000p or about the same as the movement before the final break before 2000. Another is the time for the 1998 to 1999 round trip to the break was about 6 months. If this final pattern is repeated, price will break the trend line to the down side in November or December of 2012.

Each time price has broken below the line, it has remained below for about 4 years 6 months round trip. The cycle low to low is 15 years and 8 months which if maintained would indicate the next cycle low will occur about the month of October 2016.

Good Luck.

Hi aerocom. Is this a platform or an online page that makes this past data projection?

Originally Posted by aerocom

Gbp$ update. I changed the label of wave 4 and moved iii. I of course think this is the correct count. With a ratio of .71 times wave 3, I get a top of 1.6074. Most of you know I usually use .62 of wave 3 for a 5th wave. Caution 1.6116 is still a possibility but, I will short on a break below the upper trend line.

Good Luck.

hello aerocom, my pending sell limit at 1.6100 will probably be filled shortly. Do you think this is the end before sub 1.50? There is a possibility that it double tops at 1.6300 but I will short at 6100 anyway for a retrace to 59ish, where i will place a stop at BE and let it go.
cheers

Originally Posted by Cipresko

Attachment 147903

Hello i am new in elliot trading, so is this prediction right, does it even make any sense?

Thank you

Hello Cipresko! I am off the clock but I will help out a budding "Elliottician" with a Gold 30-Minute chart count.

I will be back at my desk at 5:00AM ET.

Regards,

Greg McLeod
DailyFX Forum Moderator