Here's the possible triangle that might be playing out. Seeing as that this fits into the "alternation" guideline in EW, and that last possible impulse rally (see my 15 min chart) was terribly ugly, this scenario is gaining stature. Under this scenario, the pair will also pull back to the low 5600s. So it appears some pullback is possible either way. I think it's important to remember that the larger trend is up, so it can go up at any time.
American-T
I like your triangle better than mine. :-) Nice chart. It's looking more and more viable. Jamie's other correction he wrote up this morning has a possible flat that would take us under the 1.53 level. What's your take on that possibility AT?
Your message on the bullish resolution is more and more the case as the triangle becomes more and more developed. :-)
Here's the possible triangle that might be playing out. Seeing as that this fits into the "alternation" guideline in EW, and that last possible impulse rally (see my 15 min chart) was terribly ugly, this scenario is gaining stature. Under this scenario, the pair will also pull back to the low 5600s. So it appears some pullback is possible either way. I think it's important to remember that the larger trend is up, so it can go up at any time.
American-T
I agree that this could be a triangle..or a flat. The pair could come below 1.5510 and still be in the confines of wave C od the triangle. Also, a D wave would eventually challenge lower prices. These reasons are why I am near term bearish the EURUSD. This could turn medium term bearish though...because a larger flat is still possible.
With the spike above 205.00 overnight, I have modified my chart to make it more valid in my eyes. I believe we are either still in wave A or starting into wave B. Since I am still learning EW, are there any comments or changes that would make it more valid?
Here's the possible triangle that might be playing out. Seeing as that this fits into the "alternation" guideline in EW, and that last possible impulse rally (see my 15 min chart) was terribly ugly, this scenario is gaining stature. Under this scenario, the pair will also pull back to the low 5600s. So it appears some pullback is possible either way. I think it's important to remember that the larger trend is up, so it can go up at any time.
American-T
I would think a triangle is more appropriate than a larger flat. Correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that the internal structure of a triangle correction should be in 3's, which means that each of the ABCDE waves in a triangle should consist of 3 subwaves. A flat, on the other hand, is a 5-3-5 structure. I just don't see the decline from 1.5905 to 1.5342 as completed in 5 waves. Also, I have a hard time labeling the decline from 1.5895 to 1.5509 as wave 1 of C. The internal structure just looks weird.
Anyway, even if it's a flat, the end of wave C should not be too far away from the low of 1.5342, and it will eventually move up. Either way, the larger trend is up. A flat only implies a deeper correction.
With the spike above 205.00 overnight, I have modified my chart to make it more valid in my eyes. I believe we are either still in wave A or starting into wave B. Since I am still learning EW, are there any comments or changes that would make it more valid?
Gizmo
When I look at the daily chart, we completed 5 waves down since November, from 240 down to 192. So, the bigger trend is down. Also, the general trend for the Yen is up and for the Pound is down. So, the bias is to the downside.
Short term, we should see a small relief rally in the pair. I believe and i agree with you that the wave A up is finished at 205, now we should see wave B down to (let's say) 201 area, followed by wave C up to around 210.
After that, bigger trend will resume taking the pair down to around 160 over the next 4-6 months.
(My opinion only)
Mike
Gizmo
When I look at the daily chart, we completed 5 waves down since November, from 240 down to 192. So, the bigger trend is down. Also, the general trend for the Yen is up and for the Pound is down. So, the bias is to the downside.
Short term, we should see a small relief rally in the pair. I believe and i agree with you that the wave A up is finished at 205, now we should see wave B down to (let's say) 201 area, followed by wave C up to around 210.
After that, bigger trend will resume taking the pair down to around 160 over the next 4-6 months.
(My opinion only)
Mike
I also attached the file as a pdf. I have not quite figured out how to fix the width on my charts. They are too wide. Warketwavez posted a way to fix this, but it does seem not to work with Macs.
This is my first posted chart, so I am sure there are problems with it. I welcome all comments and corrections.
I would think a triangle is more appropriate than a larger flat. Correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that the internal structure of a triangle correction should be in 3's, which means that each of the ABCDE waves in a triangle should consist of 3 subwaves. A flat, on the other hand, is a 5-3-5 structure. I just don't see the decline from 1.5905 to 1.5342 as completed in 5 waves. Also, I have a hard time labeling the decline from 1.5895 to 1.5509 as wave 1 of C. The internal structure just looks weird.
Anyway, even if it's a flat, the end of wave C should not be too far away from the low of 1.5342, and it will eventually move up. Either way, the larger trend is up. A flat only implies a deeper correction.
Hi Chibai,
a flat is 3-3-5......a zigzag is 5-3-5.....
I also attached the file as a pdf. I have not quite figured out how to fix the width on my charts. They are too wide. Warketwavez posted a way to fix this, but it does seem not to work with Macs.
This is my first posted chart, so I am sure there are problems with it. I welcome all comments and corrections.
Mark
Mark,
What you have labeled as C and the end of 4, I have labeled as A. Wave 4 usuually retraces 38.2% of Wave 3, which would put us around 211.
Gizmo
When I look at the daily chart, we completed 5 waves down since November, from 240 down to 192. So, the bigger trend is down. Also, the general trend for the Yen is up and for the Pound is down. So, the bias is to the downside.
Short term, we should see a small relief rally in the pair. I believe and i agree with you that the wave A up is finished at 205, now we should see wave B down to (let's say) 201 area, followed by wave C up to around 210.
After that, bigger trend will resume taking the pair down to around 160 over the next 4-6 months.
(My opinion only)
Mike
Well my opinion happens to be the same so I guess I am on the right track.
I also attached the file as a pdf. I have not quite figured out how to fix the width on my charts. They are too wide. Warketwavez posted a way to fix this, but it does seem not to work with Macs.
This is my first posted chart, so I am sure there are problems with it. I welcome all comments and corrections.
Mark
Mark
From what I can see it looks like the same as I have with one difference. You have an "abc" correction and then a "?" behind the 4. I, like twszatny (see quote below), have this labelled as an "A" with "B" to follow and "C" take us up to the 210.00 mark to complete wave 4. Once that is completed I expect to enter wave 5 down.
Originally Posted by twszatny
Mark,
What you have labeled as C and the end of 4, I have labeled as A. Wave 4 usuually retraces 38.2% of Wave 3, which would put us around 211.
I gotta say, EURJPY is quite the elusive pair !! Not too long ago price was looking like it was going to start to crumble... Now Look at it... Price is staying above the Long Term Up trend line and looks like it might continue higher now... My short was stopped out near break even for a small profit... Now I'm kind of thinking Bullish this pair again... Decisions Decisions...
I gotta say, EURJPY is quite the elusive pair !! Not too long ago price was looking like it was going to start to crumble... Now Look at it... Price is staying above the Long Term Up trend line and looks like it might continue higher now... My short was stopped out near break even for a small profit... Now I'm kind of thinking Bullish this pair again... Decisions Decisions...
Yeah, the EURJPY is one sick puppy...but if we look at the log scale chart (and I do believe that you should look at long term charts on log scale), then the line was broken in January. A re-test would be near 165 though
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
English
Español
Français
中文
Deutsch
Italiano
العربية
Sverige
Ελληνικά
Originally Posted by American Trader
Reply With Quote
