Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

This is my count.....I am waiting area 15785-90 for close my shorts...

Hi Jamie,

Nice call for EURJPY, It went south by almost 150 pips from yyour entry level.

Besides, if we look at the EURUSD 30 min chart , I think we finish wave 1 with 5 subcounts, But we do not broke the 1.5712 level. just wonder if you make a short EUR call , since it will be a good chance to go short on wave 2.

appreciate your good analysis.

p.s any one follow USDJPY? it seems not well ready to down... get in puzzle....

Hi all,

It seems like GBPJPY gas finished it's c wavea and ready to go down.
the possibilituy of thos pair up to 206 is minor now.

any thought?



chakow

Originally Posted by chakow

Hi Jamie,

Nice call for EURJPY, It went south by almost 150 pips from yyour entry level.

Besides, if we look at the EURUSD 30 min chart , I think we finish wave 1 with 5 subcounts, But we do not broke the 1.5712 level. just wonder if you make a short EUR call , since it will be a good chance to go short on wave 2.

appreciate your good analysis.

p.s any one follow USDJPY? it seems not well ready to down... get in puzzle....

USDJPY should accelerate lower soon as per the count shown. This should help out the short EURJPY position as well...so far the EURJPY drop has been all EURO based.

With respect to the EURUSD. This is a potential count. Under this count the decline from 1.5870 is a 3rd wave that will extend lower quickly. However, expect a rally to end in the 1.5775/1.5815 (as wave ii of 3). Look to get short against 1.5870. I know one would argue that wave 2 is inordinately small...but this is a MAJOR turn (I think) and at major turns, markets typically do not allow many people in. I am sure there will be many traders waiting for the bigger correction before going short...but they will never get the change I could be wrong, but I see this as probable. Besides, risk is well defined.

Originally Posted by American Trader

Hi Diver,

Thanks for the good question. Trust me, I asked myself the same question as I came up with the outlooks for the majors. You're right in saying that the EUR/USD can only get to the mid-1.61s if the diagonal is correct. And that would therefore seem difficult for the USD/CHF to drop 600+ pips. But, one way it can happen is with huge risk aversion. When risk aversion takes center stage, it will cause the USD/CHF to plummet and the EUR/USD to be flat, or slightly rise.

So will this happen? How can we know? Well let's look at things that are tied to risk appetite. The USD/JPY is one of them, although it's not tied as much to risk anymore since Bernanke went psycho on interest rates. But it still works. The USD/JPY's larger decline is incomplete, and shows that it is highly probable that it's completed a large 4th wave (in the 104s) last week. The pair's rally has been choppy and overlapping, typical of a correction. If it's a correction, and supposed to be in a large 4th wave, then we have to conclude that a 5th wave will bring it down several hundred pips to a new low. So if the USD/JPY falls that far, then risk aversion would likely be the theme in the financial markets. Another thing we can look at is the stock market. The market has been in a correction for weeks now and a large third wave decline should be underway fairly soon (within a couple weeks). Well this also matches my analysis of the USD/JPY plummeting. So if the outlook for the stock market and the USD/JPY are that they're headed way lower, then we can say risk aversion will hit the markets again soon. If risk aversion hits again soon, it will destroy the carry trade, and will knock off the correlation between the USD/CHF and EUR/USD allowing the USD/CHF to fall while the EUR/USD just putters along.

There's also the possibility that the EUR/USD count is wrong. This is the main reason I don't like to use other markets to determine a trade for another market. I'd rather just try to predict one market and trade on it, rather than try to predict several markets to trade just one. You reduce your chances of being correct the more predictions you try to make.

I don't analyze or trade the EUR/JPY or EUR/CHF or any of the crosses, so I can't give you prescriptive help there. But if the EUR/USD is not supposed to make an significant gains, the USD/JPY is falling several hundred pips, and the stock market is expected to plummet, then I think a short EUR/JPY bias is warranted. Also, the EUR/CHF would seem bearish to me as well. But when? and where? I can't help you there.

I also wrote something addressing this to Chibai earlier if want to read a little more.

Hope that helps.

American-T

AT,

Thanks for the great response. I can see where you are coming from on this point. I appreciate the time and thought given in your answer.

I guess I'm trying to put too neat a bow on the whole picture. Stocks, gold, EUR, etc. Best is to just take each on it's own merit, I guess. :-)

Btw, has anything been altered in your posture since yesterday given the big EUR/ USD decline or the USD/CHF rally, etc.? Are we still looking for the larger USD decline? Thanks.

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

With respect to the EURUSD. This is a potential count. Under this count the decline from 1.5870 is a 3rd wave that will extend lower quickly. However, expect a rally to end in the 1.5775/1.5815 (as wave ii of 3). Look to get short against 1.5870. I know one would argue that wave 2 is inordinately small...but this is a MAJOR turn (I think) and at major turns, markets typically do not allow many people in. I am sure there will be many traders waiting for the bigger correction before going short...but they will never get the change I could be wrong, but I see this as probable. Besides, risk is well defined.

Very nice look. If the 1.5870 wave 2 high gets taken out is there a favored alternate count you have in mind? I'm asking because if the breakdown level at 1.5712 has held so far is it likely we might see another new high still? Thanks.

Hi jamie,
whould you please some light on cable bounce, i expect gbp retail sell data for bounce toward at lest 1.9900 or 1.9865. now what you suggest.
thanks

Originally Posted by diver

Very nice look. If the 1.5870 wave 2 high gets taken out is there a favored alternate count you have in mind? I'm asking because if the breakdown level at 1.5712 has held so far is it likely we might see another new high still? Thanks.

The alternate would be that a 5 wave drop is complete and that wave 5 was extended, so the larger count would still be bearish

looks like 1.5774 was it...hope you got in

Too funny. I am being "punished" for asking a question.

You have a short memory, you go back to your PM's and read that I said I was almost finished reading the posts you suggested. (I am now finished). Prechters book should arrive today.

Other than charts, there is no great insight in those posts. Just the daily arguing and "here's what may be happening".

I am only interested in some of the lines on YOUR CHARTS and how you select your entry points. When asked, you are vague and say people must go read posts. If you don't want to answer for fear you are giving away some big secret, no big deal.

Talk to you, maybe, in a few days.

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Texas
I am not going to respond to you for the next 2 days

go here , do what it says
read this post # 6375
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...13880&page=425
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in 2 days , this coming Sunday

I will get back to you and simply ask you if you are finished reading all of it
- then you should move on to reading Pretcher's Book ..........

there's alot is basic info you need to cover ,
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speak to you then -

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Nice count EG888.

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

looks like 1.5774 was it...hope you got in

Are you kidding. I've been in for a month now. :-)

Nice work, Jamie.

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

looks like 1.5774 was it...hope you got in

:-), Yes thanks. Using your count it looks like we could have finished 1 of 3 here and be in for 2 of 3 now. Any thoughts?

hi texas

i know you are intrested in learning
i already explained to you that all this took me almost to 5 years

again,
how teach it to you in a week ? , it takes time
and you cant learn it all in a forum
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the best thing to do now is just read Pretchers book ,
then put what it says into practice ,
and as promised i will tell you what to read next ........

Your question that you are asking me about entries has to do
with money mangement , if you really read throgh the posts you
would have seen talk by me about money mangement .......

Money Mangemnt is a subject on you its own , to be studied on it's own

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eventually you will learn to pick your own entries
- no matter what wave count is occuring , but again , it takes time

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