The USDCAD makes a strong case for USD strength to resume soon also. Risk is well defined at just below parity. I have not labeled the waves....but they are very clear here. Bigger picture, the drop to .9997 could have ended as a truncation (wave Y to complete W-X-Y from 1.0324).
Hey how 'bout a shout out to AT! Wassup AT? Where you at? Just saying hi. How 'bout posting your latest counts on: DJIA, CHF, EUR, JPY, GC. Miss your work and comments. Regards, Diver :-)
Hey Diver, how are are ya?!
I've been on travel this week and my time has been very limited. I thought I'd write a brief note, but no time for charts until the weekend:
1) The stock indices appear to be headed down to much lower levels, and possibly to new lows on the year. This should effect the carry trade, and most importantly for me, the USD/JPY negatively. The pair is at 103 right now and I see this pair making a new low beneath 95.73. I"m waiting for a large corrective rally so I can add to my position. But as we all know, that may not happen because sometimes when the USD/JPY gets going, it doesn't look back.
2) I also have a small short position in the USD/CHF to make a new low. I keep going long the EUR/USD to catch scalping trades as I see that possibly making a new high, and the recent big downturn just a wave C in a flat correction perhaps ending at 1.5283. Even if it's not a flat correction (down), it has moved down so much so fast that it's gotta be due for a strong bounce soon.
3) Dumping my precious metal positions last week proved to be a wise choice. Being bearish the dollar does not make shorting gold and silver an easy task. Plus, short term technicals were oversold and needed to be alleviated before the next wave down. I will wait for clear signs of a top and reversal in the metals and/or for the dollar to prove it's bottomed.
Sorry I can't post charts right now, but my analysis is basically the same as it always is. I see the short and medium term trend in the dollar and the stock market are down, and precious metals' trend is now up in the short term, but medium term it's also down.
EURUSD is testing a potential resisting trendline RIGHT NOW....the rally has unfolded in 3 legs to this point. I am bearish as long as price is below 1.5594 (previous peak). Bearish potential in coming weeks is enormous...1.50 and below.
Jamie,
Keeping the very bearish count in mind, is it fair to ask at this point what would the alternate count be IF the 1.5594 level is exceeded? Would one want to be long at that point? OR, just sell again at a higher level? Thanks. :-)
Recent chart done by Jim Martens from elliott wave international on EURUSD.
His commentary reads:
[Bottoming! HIGHER] Perhaps I'm being overly stubborn, but I am not convinced that the dollar bottom is in place... The question is whether EUR$ will dip below 1.5342 to complete a flat [correction], or whether it will turn higher as the market consolidates above 1.5342 to compete a triangle. If you've been watching the financial news you must realize that everyone (and their brother/sister) believe the dollar bottom is in place. The belief is so strong that its recent gains are being cited as the basis for softer oil prices, falling gold... and the bursting of the commodity bubble. I'm always skeptical when everyone seems to be in agreement regarding the trend. It does happen on occasion, but it's rare that everyone has it right.
I've been on travel this week and my time has been very limited. I thought I'd write a brief note, but no time for charts until the weekend:
1) The stock indices appear to be headed down to much lower levels, and possibly to new lows on the year. This should effect the carry trade, and most importantly for me, the USD/JPY negatively. The pair is at 103 right now and I see this pair making a new low beneath 95.73. I"m waiting for a large corrective rally so I can add to my position. But as we all know, that may not happen because sometimes when the USD/JPY gets going, it doesn't look back.
2) I also have a small short position in the USD/CHF to make a new low. I keep going long the EUR/USD to catch scalping trades as I see that possibly making a new high, and the recent big downturn just a wave C in a flat correction perhaps ending at 1.5283. Even if it's not a flat correction (down), it has moved down so much so fast that it's gotta be due for a strong bounce soon.
3) Dumping my precious metal positions last week proved to be a wise choice. Being bearish the dollar does not make shorting gold and silver an easy task. Plus, short term technicals were oversold and needed to be alleviated before the next wave down. I will wait for clear signs of a top and reversal in the metals and/or for the dollar to prove it's bottomed.
Sorry I can't post charts right now, but my analysis is basically the same as it always is. I see the short and medium term trend in the dollar and the stock market are down, and precious metals' trend is now up in the short term, but medium term it's also down.
Regards,
American-T
AT,
Thanks for the comeback. I'll be looking for your "WEEKEND UPDATE". Hope all is well. :-)
Recent chart done by Jim Martens from elliott wave international on EURUSD.
His commentary reads:
[Bottoming! HIGHER] Perhaps I'm being overly stubborn, but I am not convinced that the dollar bottom is in place... The question is whether EUR$ will dip below 1.5342 to complete a flat [correction], or whether it will turn higher as the market consolidates above 1.5342 to compete a triangle. If you've been watching the financial news you must realize that everyone (and their brother/sister) believe the dollar bottom is in place. The belief is so strong that its recent gains are being cited as the basis for softer oil prices, falling gold... and the bursting of the commodity bubble. I'm always skeptical when everyone seems to be in agreement regarding the trend. It does happen on occasion, but it's rare that everyone has it right.
The short term parameters seem to be very clear at the moment according to the EW staff. 1.5342 needs to break to add fuel to the downside fire. While any short term rally above 1.5593 will delay the continuation lower OR possibly derail it all together. At least that is the way I'm understanding it.
Further, Jamie if I may use his current analysis here seems to be also saying the same thing. So I guess we have a 250 pip range to monitor and trade until one side gives. Personally, I would respect either level as something not to go against. They could bring fast and furious follow through for just the reasons you mentioned. Everyone and their brother is keying in on them. :-)
Recent chart done by Jim Martens from elliott wave international on EURUSD.
His commentary reads:
[Bottoming! HIGHER] Perhaps I'm being overly stubborn, but I am not convinced that the dollar bottom is in place... The question is whether EUR$ will dip below 1.5342 to complete a flat [correction], or whether it will turn higher as the market consolidates above 1.5342 to compete a triangle. If you've been watching the financial news you must realize that everyone (and their brother/sister) believe the dollar bottom is in place. The belief is so strong that its recent gains are being cited as the basis for softer oil prices, falling gold... and the bursting of the commodity bubble. I'm always skeptical when everyone seems to be in agreement regarding the trend. It does happen on occasion, but it's rare that everyone has it right.
Hey Brad,
Could you define EVERYONE pls? Everyone in this blog...everyone in the U.S...Everyone on the Planet...Everyone in Zimbabwe? Im pretty sure most people are still dollar bears so I dont know where you get this information. Pls specify.
Hey Brad,
Could you define EVERYONE pls? Everyone in this blog...everyone in the U.S...Everyone on the Planet...Everyone in Zimbabwe? Im pretty sure most people are still dollar bears so I dont know where you get this information. Pls specify.
Hey Brad,
Could you define EVERYONE pls? Everyone in this blog...everyone in the U.S...Everyone on the Planet...Everyone in Zimbabwe? Im pretty sure most people are still dollar bears so I dont know where you get this information. Pls specify.
You need to ask that question to Jim Martens... Those are his words, not mine.
14:42 EUR/USD: Reports Of Sovereign Buying On Dips New York, May 9th. There are growing reports that sovereign demand is buoying EUR/USD, and that it has been growing over the past couple of sessions, commencing after the aborted downside probe below 1.5300. The way Euro has traded over the past two years, a 5-6 big fig pull back has been all you were ever going to get, and in that marvelously cynical manner of old hands the world over, you stick with the winning strategies until they fail.
It does feel different this time; it does seem that the economic data are finally shifting in Europe to a point that you sense a palpable sentiment shift. That does not mean that EUR/USD cannot rally sharply, it just means that the almost imperceptible shift in the ECB's attitude is starting and will eventually result in rate cuts. The long term view is now shifting, the downside risks to USD have all been priced in, strategic hedgers/ investors will start to shift from short to long; making a significant high above 1.6020 more and more unlikely. Spot last at 1.5430/35. Peter.Wadkins@thomson.com
Well Im not a subscriber so can you ask him and let us know please.
I'm not a subscriber either... Can't help ya ! That was part of free comentary by elliott wave international, I just thought maybe some people here would find it interesting.. If you have a question for Jim Martens regarding his comentary, you can email him at elliott wave international. They are pretty nice guys over there.. Maybe you'll get a response...
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Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele 
