Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Big Mike,

Your thoughts on the stock market? I thought it rolled over last week but there is a lot of strength this week especially in the higher risk assets like those in the Nasdaq, and the underlying technicals of today's move are strong, i.e. advance/decline ratio and up/down volume. 1422 is a key area obviously for the S&P but the EW count I have is quite ugly if it in fact made an impulsive decline last week. On the daily, momentum and volume continues to be weak on the whole move up so the rally over the past few weeks is very exhausted and due to reverse. But I'm looking for the "timing" factor. This also should tie into JPY strength, and the JPY has weakened very far, especially against the USD.

Any thoughts? Counts?

American-T

60 minute chart of the EUR/CHF for those that trade it. My current take. It looks like a very clear 5 waves up. At the least it should be due for a nice correction down. Any other thoughts around?

Originally Posted by FlaGordon

Good morning Mike.
Thanks for the heads up!!

I have been looking at this for a while and it looks like a good pattern.
On the 5 min chart I tried to get in seeing the pattern but got stopped out.

I have a bad habit of setting my stops too tight. maybe not though, cause at this moment it woud have cost.

As for the Eur chf I am still looking for that top via EW. It also violated my 1 on 11/22/07 so my count is bad or it's changing. I'll be watching though

Keep up the good updates.

I quite agree with your EURCHF.
I also think that we just witnessed the end of the correction an hour ago.
Boy, was it ever tight! It almost violated the count (origing of wave 1 at 1.6340 on May 6) by only something like less than 5 pips.
Hopefully, from now we will be OK. The last subminuette wave c was an ending diagonal on the 5 min chart; nothing wrong with that. It is just that it was not a clear 5 wave count (waves overlapping which was slightly confusing).
Mike

I think this is what's going on with EURUSD on the 4 hour chart... Looks like a good buy at the moment...

Now isn't that an artistic chart... lol

Originally Posted by American Trader

Big Mike,

Your thoughts on the stock market? I thought it rolled over last week but there is a lot of strength this week especially in the higher risk assets like those in the Nasdaq, and the underlying technicals of today's move are strong, i.e. advance/decline ratio and up/down volume. 1422 is a key area obviously for the S&P but the EW count I have is quite ugly if it in fact made an impulsive decline last week. On the daily, momentum and volume continues to be weak on the whole move up so the rally over the past few weeks is very exhausted and due to reverse. But I'm looking for the "timing" factor. This also should tie into JPY strength, and the JPY has weakened very far, especially against the USD.

Any thoughts? Counts?

American-T

You are absolutely correct that this Nasdaq correction is running out of steam. But, hey, I've been saying that for a while and Nasdaq keeps defying gravity and sanity. But we all know that this correction MUST COME TO AN END. So far, we reached the point of 50% fibo retracement, so the end of the correction might be little closer.
Further, there is absolutely no good news to suppport this insanity; in fact all news is either bad or terrible, especially with the housing crisis, credit crunch amd bonds collapsing.
So, one day, quite soon, they will wake up and smell the flowers.
But for now, they are still lining up to the madhouse.

Originally Posted by diver

60 minute chart of the EUR/CHF for those that trade it. My current take. It looks like a very clear 5 waves up. At the least it should be due for a nice correction down. Any other thoughts around?

Good day Diver

I have been watching it and I like it, risk reward!

I counted 5 waves down and the retrace to 2 on the 5 min is where I bought.

My stop is above the 146, top of formsr high.

Good luck with our trade!!

Gordon

Originally Posted by JimboFX

Here is an update of my preffered count for the cable which was posted last week. According to that count the price has reached the projected level to the pip and now should be moving higher. By the way 1.9361 is where wave (C) is equal to wave (A) and also a doble bottom.

Jimbo

Too perfect a scenario scares me. I would love to see this pair go up now. However, when I checked my stochastics... I see a possible anomaly on my wave count here as the wave ends do not match up with oversold levels . I would not even use it for Divergence Readings.

Prior low to the lowest low now on the 15min chart reched oversold levels @ 20 while the lowest low barely reached even level 30.

It would seem to me that this could be cause for an anomaly in my wave count.

then if you check the scenario and the fib readings, we see that the lowest low @ 1.9364 is 132% of prior swing and the next swing is 161.8% of the "a" leg. To me this could be a scenario for an irregular flat wave. so we may still see further fall for Cable.

hedging ( @ 1.9451 SHORT ) my 2 previous long trades now but will be willing to take some loss here incase it continues to go up. SL will be at 1.9473 potential wave "c" end of the irregular flat.

if this continues to go down, then this could be a wave 3 inside a 5th wave. so it should be fast too.

I would appreciate hearing the thoughts of others who aslo use stochastics as part of their EW count routine.

EG

Originally Posted by Big Mike

I quite agree with your EURCHF.
I also think that we just witnessed the end of the correction an hour ago.
Boy, was it ever tight! It almost violated the count (origing of wave 1 at 1.6340 on May 6) by only something like less than 5 pips.
Hopefully, from now we will be OK. The last subminuette wave c was an ending diagonal on the 5 min chart; nothing wrong with that. It is just that it was not a clear 5 wave count (waves overlapping which was slightly confusing).
Mike

Thanks for the better count

So you believe we are in wave 5 of this current setup which is what I was looking at only I had 163.07

5 min charts count !!

How about a contracting triangle as an alternative count?

I still have bias for a possible last dip for Cable for a 5th wave. Price is still contained inside a potential contracting triangle.

A jump above 1.9473 would cause me to abandon additional downward move for this pair.

But should it break out to the downside, it is likely to achieve 1.9347 which the depth equal to the largest depth of this contracting triangle beginning at the wave "e" end

update: replaced the chart to show the FIBS and the target

EG, I'm quite bullish on cable right now. The first reason is the cable count itself which I posted before. Reason #2 is the the fundamental side - according to the data we've seen lately I don't think BoE would be cutting rates anytime soon. And the third reason is EURGBP. It is getting into a sell zone in my opinion which is bullish for the GBP. On that particular setup I see one more push higher to .8000 and maybe a bit more but anything above 0.8000 represents a good R:R with a stop above FE 1.62(0.8069) for the move to the previous low of wave (A).

Regards

Hey Strider,
B waves have only 3 waves (a-b-c), not 5.
Your scenario is plausible though!
M.

Originally Posted by brad_1199

LOOK AT THE DOWNSIDE MOMENTUM IN NZDUSD... WE'RE PROBABLY DUE FOR A BREAKOUT SOON !! .. I think we've all had our eyes fixed elsewhere and we've missed this GEM.. I just hopped on board with a short...

So Brad, do you have a daily count for this pair? Here is a possible count. Looks like it's in wave 3 of c down. Lower channel and 38.2 Fib level support are between 0.7375 - 0.7300. So it looks like the pair still have another 300+ pips to fall.

Originally Posted by JimboFX

EG, I'm quite bullish on cable right now. The first reason is the cable count itself which I posted before. Reason #2 is the the fundamental side - according to the data we've seen lately I don't think BoE would be cutting rates anytime soon. And the third reason is EURGBP. It is getting into a sell zone in my opinion which is bullish for the GBP. On that particular setup I see one more push higher to .8000 and maybe a bit more but anything above 0.8000 represents a good R:R with a stop above FE 1.62(0.8069) for the move to the previous low of wave (A).

Regards

I'm with you JBO on Cable

Not that me being with you matters

I've been buying cable all day

Originally Posted by JT3

I'm with you JBO on Cable

Not that me being with you matters

I've been buying cable all day

Nice. Let's see if it's going to work this time.


BTW I thought I was the only one buying this crazy pair

Originally Posted by JimboFX

EG, I'm quite bullish on cable right now. The first reason is the cable count itself which I posted before. Reason #2 is the the fundamental side - according to the data we've seen lately I don't think BoE would be cutting rates anytime soon. And the third reason is EURGBP. It is getting into a sell zone in my opinion which is bullish for the GBP. On that particular setup I see one more push higher to .8000 and maybe a bit more but anything above 0.8000 represents a good R:R with a stop above FE 1.62(0.8069) for the move to the previous low of wave (A).

Regards

Hi Jim

good stuff!

I am very bearish on EURGBP, and you may have even noticed the head and shoulders formation, right shoulder toped?

As for cable who knows but i lean towards a bullish stance, EURUSD i have to say i am still in the bear camp and not with Jamie on this one as far as a bounce is concerned. One reason being i feel the USDCHF as further to go, i will post a updated chart later.

Regards

Ray