Usd/Gbp :
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Wave " 3 " low ............

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Well we sold off some into the close. We came down to a short term trend line and bounced. Let's see if that continues to hold OR if we break lower next session. Given the overbought nature of the dollar and the extreme volatility I'm leaning towards the CHF going lower. Have a nice weekend all!

Hey guys,
The start of today's session I believe will prove to be a volitile one from the get go. Why? Well, Patterns look complete to me on many pairs. Also, here's an article that came out on Bloomberg as breaking news over the weekend while markets were closed:
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
Due to this news, The New York Mercantile Exchange announced an extended trading session beginning at 2:30 p.m. today because of Gustav.

However, give the notion that I don't believe in news having any effect on long term trends, this is not my concern. Im more interested in the panic this might cause in perhaps a spike in oil or fall of the USD. This is my first attempt in calling a bottom in the GBP/USD.
First, looking at a daily chart, we have entered the threshold of the first reversal zone I have pegged for the this pair which is where 3 or C = 100% of 1 or A projected from B.

Second chart, we see a stellar 5 wave decline in 3 or C being complete. Thus, we can make a projection for wave V in C. The bottom line in my reversal zone is where V is = to 38.2% of I through III projected from IV.

The third chart is an hourly chart where I magnified wave V where we see the possibility of an ending D in play. We've already tested the outer limits of the ending D only to close back in it. This is classic ending D terminal price action. This means we have a possible bottom in place. Also, should this be an valid ending D, we should get a violent thrust back where the where the ending D began at the end of IV of C being 1.8797. That's over 500 pips away from where we are now.
Be ready for a volatile open.

Hey Guys,

Hope you all have had a good week.

This trade in the NZD/USD has worked like a charm. Price met my objectives and is now rallying as expected. Over the next several days, we should see price continue higher (to above 0.7215, August 21 High) which would complete either a wave (3) or a wave (C).

Looking at the current price action, the rally off the 0.6897 lows is in five waves, even though they are overlapping. And the recent decline has so far taken place in three waves.

All in all, it looks like we'll see higher prices here.

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Here's another look at the Kiwi with a different count applied. The end result is the same though, five up and three down pointing to higher prices.

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The USD/CAD is also rallying as expected. The choppy decline we have seen over the last several days has taken the form of a three wave correction. Therefore, we could see price continue higher from here.

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The GBP/JPY is trading right at the 78.6% retracement level from the prior leading diagonal. I'll be looking for any signs of a reversal higher over the next several days.

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Gbp/Usd

Hmmmm , What do we have here ?.........

Talk about going to Hell in a Hand-Basket ..........!

- When will this slippage end ? ............

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Usd/Cad

A Ray of Hope ! .............

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Only a Probability ! .............. Not Cast in Stone !
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Eur/Usd
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Long-Term View.........
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Here is a weekly long term look at the GBP. The internal relationships of the potential counts are a pretty good insight as to what may be happening. We are either completing a wave C of a large ABC correction from the 2.11 high OR we are possibly completing a wave iii of 3. The alternate count (preferred is you like) is in parenthesis. Of course, we are still dropping as I write this but more or less it is the same on a weekly chart. Opinions?

Btw, last time indicators were this low in January we rallied 1000 pips.

30 minute look at the GBP. 5 down with 3 and 5 equal and both 2 X 1. Overshooting the channel bottom.

Hey Guys,

CAD/JPY looks to be working lower. The most recent move being a three wave rally signals lower prices to come.

The idea of lower prices here is supported by the USD/CAD going higher.

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EURCHF, 1H:

Great following until now, price reversed to the pip, first target is 1.6000 where we have a pretty strong confluence, 2nd at 1.5860.

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Hey Guys,

I think the correction in the JPY crosses is complete and that the bear is back in control. As Brad pointed out in his last post, the USD/JPY could be breaking out of the channel it has been in since March. The GBP/JPY has surpassed the 78.6% retracement and is very very close to breaking to new lows, which invalidates the diagonal scenario I've been following. The EUR/JPY has also invalidated any further bullish price action with the break below 185.85 today.

In addition to the break below 185.85, the decline is in a five wave pattern. It looks like the trend has turned, so I'll be looking to short on a bounce over the next few weeks.

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