Hey Brad,
I was going to write the same thing to Justy but you beat me too the punch. Good eye! I didnt notice the Gap but we have the same count. Thanks for the heads up on the gap.
I still think USDJPY could get back up to 109.00 early next week, especially if it closes this week above 106.50... Have to be very careful with this pair at the moment...
It's clear this fib level we're sitting on right now is causing a whipsaw price action..
Last edited by brad_1199; 04-09-2009 at 12:09 AM..
Concerning price action going forward into next week, I think we have a bounce upward coming in USDJPY... I believe there is a top at 109.17 that should not get penetrated..
I have short entry orders sitting at 108.90 with stops at 109.30
I told you, guys, the other day, be veeery carefull with your short USD/JPY positions...
It was just too much noise everywhere. Yesterday, for instance, i saw 3 (!!) articles on my beloved online magazine, and all of them with top priority. The signal was very clear. Not an environment to enjoy the 3 of the 3 down. That should happen in the little, but other way... More or less enexpected for public, so to say. The noise should come after it happend. But utill now nothing special has yet happened.
But we are now as near as never before...
Hopefully, we will get some euphoric reports now, telling that the worst is over, the FED or Govrn. or Aliens from Mars have saved us from crash.
Then i would consider that this is the time to take the shorts
Otherwise, it'll still be quite risky...
But we could and should try our best.
USDJPY may have completed a correction on the Daily chart and moving toward a new high as Justy had mentioned... I'm really starting to get P'O'ed with this pair...
Last edited by brad_1199; 04-09-2009 at 12:09 AM..
I think we have now collected some ticks to be able to share the ideas about what is going on.
I will take one of favorite - USD/CHF, as an example.
Looks like we had two legs down from 1,1420, they are about equal (not 100 %, but very close to).
The question is, what we have from the bottom at 1,09 ?
There might be two possibilities.
1) The Dollar correction is over and he will gain strength again (doing it already, actually)
2) That was only the first part of correction and the dollar will correct down further.
Well, my current feeling is that Dollar should yet to fall again. In our USD/CHF case it means that we are forming a kind of X wave. It's as strong as it should be, rather unexpected. So, it looks good, exactly as wave X should look like.
I would also rather see the Cable correcting a bit higher, at least up to 1,84.
Of course, it's also very possible that this is just a beginning of the new Dollar trend up. To confirm that we will need to see 5 waves up. If we see this, no problem, will turn Dollar bullish.
Do I see correctly that on the first decline, the wave 3 (the red one) is the shortest one?
Given the size of the multi year corrective up move we have seen off that major low in 1985 , that tells me the large straight down drop we saw from 1981 to 1985 was most likely a terminal 5 wave thrust so don't pay too much attention to the minor detail of 3 being the shortest if it actually was (Hard to tell for certain).. Because the move downward from 1981 to 1985 was a clear straight drop it's got to be a LARGE degree "A" of "C" wave.... In those correcitve "A" and "C" waves, sometimes price action doesn't make a whole lot of sense... We're just looking for the "right look" so to speak...
Given the size of the multi year corrective up move we have seen off that major low in 1985 , that tells me the large straight down drop we saw from 1981 to 1985 was most likely a terminal 5 wave thrust so don't pay too much attention to the minor detail of 3 being the shortest if it actually was (Hard to tell for certain).. Because the move downward from 1981 to 1985 was a clear straight drop it's got to be a LARGE degree "A" of "C" wave.... In those correcitve "A" and "C" waves, sometimes price action doesn't make a whole lot of sense... We're just looking for the "right look" so to speak...
In this case i would agree with you.
But in general, paying attention to details could sometimes give great insights.
I post my beloved mid-term chart for GBP/USD.
I've changed it now a little, so that alternate shown in red, left to the main count, which is shown in black.
As you can see, your count is still an alternate count for me. Because, as one can notice, the wave Y was exactly 1,61 of the wave W. That is a very strong sign for me.
However, your count is very possible and could only be eliminated by going above 1,9380.
Don't worry guys. LTD 12 low seemed to have arrived at ITD 8 low on Sep 11 at 7444.
The highest high of LTD 13 will not be due until end of December of this year. From mid Sept - late Dec, the longer time frame LTD is UP.
Two charts here, ITD (Intermediate Term Delta) and LTD (Long Term Delta). Combine this with your excellent EW, and you will see direction and price.
Beware of MTD 4 on Oct 12, this Medium Term downtrend may test the LTD 12 low, sort of forming a tweezer bottom. Just don't get spooked, but 7444 will not be broken lower anytime soon.
Don't worry guys. LTD 12 low seemed to have arrived at ITD 8 low on Sep 11 at 7444.
The highest high of LTD 13 will not be due until end of December of this year. From mid Sept - late Dec, the longer time frame LTD is UP.
Two charts here, ITD (Intermediate Term Delta) and LTD (Long Term Delta). Combine this with your excellent EW, and you will see direction and price.
Beward of MTD 4 on Oct 12, this Medium Term downtrend may test the LTD 12 low, sort of forming a tweezer bottom. Just don't get spooked, but 7444 will not be broken lower anytime soon.
Wow, that looks intresting. To be able predict not only the price, but also the approximate time of change... That would be just great!
Tell us more about these term deltas. Where are they from ? How do you calculate them?
Wow, that looks intresting. To be able predict not only the price, but also the approximate time of change... That would be just great!
Tell us more about these term deltas. Where are they from ? How do you calculate them?
Hi ravno,
Delta is the development of Welles Wilder theory which is basically a timing based approach. It doesn't tell about target price, but the idea is that when the time is up, the market has to turn. To project price, we can use Elliot Wave or Fibonacci.
There is a book called Delta Phenomenon that explain this. Also there's a book called Market Matrix by Steve Copan that explain this. There's also CD training for Delta and MM by Steve Copan.
It's not easy to explain the method, as it's quite comprehensive and there is quite a bunch of rules. But you can try googling Delta trading to see if you can get some information for free. The information / training CD is not cheap.
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