Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Is USDJPY overstaying its welcome? It surely looks like it is.
I am short, but who knows, what will happen next.
In any case, we should pay attention. It is a critical junction.
Mike

As I have said earlier today none of these two pairs will be headed lower (only short time frame lows). Today USD/JPY has violated 107.23 the level that Jamie has given so I think he needs to see price movement in another perspective. Brad 1199 regarding your EUR/JPY weekly analysis, I dont agree since I think the price movement from last year is an A-B-C correction and we are headed for wave iii of 5. If you guys believe that carry trade is correlated with the stock market then there is no other way only up.

Originally Posted by Big Mike

You were absolutely correct, my friend. It dropped like a rock. 100 pips in one minute. When i turned my computer on, it was 0705h (Mountain time) and it was too late to catch the big move. From experience I know that the security will recover the initial drop to large degrre within 1 hr, then i will short it.
mike

Usd/Cad
Yep ,,,, yep ,,,,,!

The AUD/USD is looking good as a long term play on the decline in Gold. It has completed 5 waves down and I am looking to short on a retrace to the Fib 61.8 to 78.6 or a break of the long term up trend line with a target on break in the 9300 to 9279 area.

There is some serious divergence between MACD, RSI and Price.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Jimbo and guys following GBPJPY:
I am attaching GBPJPY in a bigger time scale.
Graphically, you can see few possibilities.
In editorial part, all i can say is that we should see some more upside to complete wave a, b, c of C. How high will the pair go? Plausible value at the moment seems around 213.76 (should be strong resistance).
Other possibility is the top of upper trendline, but that will be really high and really long time, around 217 by the time both lines intercept.
Mike

Well, before your 213.76 target, we still need to get through 211.14 ish target. Assuming we have the same count and this is to be a wave 4, 38.2% of wave 3 is at 211.14 ish. Not only that, but weekly stochs are WAY over bought and so are dailys. Dailys also have negative divergence. 38.2 is a big number for wave 4s...its become sort of a universal target, a self fulling prophecy if you will. I think 211.14 needs to be looked at closely before 213.76. I guantee you, many traders will be.

Originally Posted by aerocom

The AUD/USD is looking good as a long term play on the decline in Gold. It has completed 5 waves down and I am looking to short on a retrace to the Fib 61.8 to 78.6 or a break of the long term up trend line with a target on break in the 9300 to 9279 area.

There is some serious divergence between MACD, RSI and Price.

Good Luck.

Do you have a chart? What time frame?

Thanks.

TP

Hey Aerocom,
Acouple of weeks ago, I posted this as a possible scenario. We are now testing the lower trendline of the ending D. A daily close below would indeed confirm it. Target for a position trader would be 8513 because that is where wave 1 of ending D began.

Calling all stock market gurus. AT, Big Mike, all others.

Looking for some input on today's action so far at 14:30 EDST. What's up? Any thoughts? Any analysis? Direction? EW count?
Thanks. :-)

don't have a wave count as i'm not an elliotician, but here is my view. Tested the 50% fib from 1254 to 1440 @ 1347 bounced off there but coming back slowly already. Still looking for more downside towards 1325 and 1298 (38.2 and 23.6 respectively). No matter what Big Ben says about the state of the economy.

Originally Posted by diver;160[B

668]Calling all stock market gurus. AT, Big Mike, all others.

Looking for some input on today's action so far at 14:30 EDST. What's up? Any thoughts? Any analysis? Direction? EW count?
Thanks. :-)

Hey guys,
Heres a different spin on whats going on with stocks. We seem to forget that we are looking at big trends here. As such, we should be looking at big charts. For some reason, the daily on the S&P is oversold, yet has not come down very much considering many are calling it a wave 3. I dont think wave 3 has begun yet. I believe us to be in wave b of 2. Wave C should start soon which means several weeks of up action and bulls prematurely declaring victory! We could go as high as 1506 in the S&P alone.
[/B]
P.S Keep in mind, this is only a possibility. Wave A has come up quite a bit enough to declare it a wave 2. Nasdaq got a very deep retrace as well and daily is NOT oversold there so who knows. The only thing that would disprove this count unfortunately is a new low. The only thing that would prove this count is a rise above A.

hey all

just to throw in a clear usdjpy trendline setup..
when this daily candle closes we should know where to go; but from a EW standpoint i am completely out

Originally Posted by diver

Calling all stock market gurus. AT, Big Mike, all others.

Looking for some input on today's action so far at 14:30 EDST. What's up? Any thoughts? Any analysis? Direction? EW count?
Thanks. :-)

I expected some heavy follow-through Monday and today after Friday's big drop on heavy volume, horrible breadth, and closing on the lows. But other than the Nasdaq, the market is doing nothing. I'm still short term bearish but the risk level is a bit high (Friday's highs) to enter now so perhaps wait to see if a sharp bear market rally happens by the close today, or sometime later this week, to get a better risk/reward ratio to short. I would not look for long positions on any timeframe in this market. The rallies are choppy and on weak breadth and volume. The pressure still seems down.

My only comment is to look for a good risk reward ratio and short an index when that opportunity arises. Friday's highs should hold if the bearish outlook remains intact.

Good trading!

American-T

Originally Posted by italm31

Hey guys,
Heres a different spin on whats going on with stocks. We seem to forget that we are looking at big trends here. As such, we should be looking at big charts. For some reason, the daily on the S&P is oversold, yet has not come down very much considering many are calling it a wave 3. I dont think wave 3 has begun yet. I believe us to be in wave b of 2. Wave C should start soon which means several weeks of up action and bulls prematurely declaring victory! We could go as high as 1506 in the S&P alone.
[/B]
P.S Keep in mind, this is only a possibility. Wave A has come up quite a bit enough to declare it a wave 2. Nasdaq got a very deep retrace as well and daily is NOT oversold there so who knows. The only thing that would disprove this count unfortunately is a new low. The only thing that would prove this count is a rise above A.

This count is a good possibility considering the lack of follow-through to the downside. However this large and drawn out correction would not be propotionate to the impulsive wave down and therefore wouldn't have the "right look" EWP calls for. Regardless, it's still a possibility, and until prices break down again this count should be strongly considered.

Thanks for posting.

American-T

Here's what I'm going to be following until I'm proven wrong in USDJPY

I'm short EURCAD as of today.... Looks like price has given us 5 waves down and a strong retracement back to test the Under side of the previous up trend line.. It looks like a wave 2 (Deep And Fast)... Price has now rejected that area and is falling... Lets see if I get this one right ... I'll be in place nice and early for a bear run if so

This is the EURCAD Daily chart