Hey American T,
I figured out why I couldn't post charts. Apparently, we have a quota with how much charts or space were allowed to use on this forum. I had to go back and delete most of my charts. Now I can post again. Anyways, heres that monthly of S&P i wanted to show you yesterday. As you can see, time wise, this A wave scenario looks more realistic only cause its a monthly.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moving along nicely -
Price Action has now found solid support at the End of wave 4 low .
I'm following the same thing but I have a top in place at 107,74 . I've added the 15 min chart which shows it. Need a break of 107.12 to be sure the top is in place, else we could still go up one more time.
...The VIX just executed a short term BUY signal and stochastics are showing bullish divergence on the hourly charts so a rally might be due....I do feel that tomorrow, and the rest of the week perhaps, will have an upside bias and we'll see some rallying. But gains should be very hard to get, very choppy, on weak breadth and volume, and they should stay below Friday's highs. We just have to grit our teeth and bear it.........So I'm bracing for a rough end of the week, and waiting for the selling to commence again....
American-T
Well seeing that the indexes have fallen off a cliff right at the open, the above quote appears dead wrong so far. However there's some oil news and the beige book that's coming out later and it's possible we'll see a reversal. That VIX buy signal is quite reliable so I'm real leary about things right now. But so far, the markets are very weak. The Nasdaq's declining volume to advancing is already 3.6:1 and the NYSE's is 3.7:1. So this sell off is strong and may have legs that will prove to us that wave 3 is in fact underway, and the long multi-week correction in wave 2 is over.
Again, a break and close below 12,033 in the Dow will confirm that wave 3 down is underway and stocks are headed much much lower (below 10,000)
The USD/JPY might be breaking down. I'd like to see some consolidation at current levels (106.66) and then one more new low to complete a 5 wave down pattern. If that occurs, it will set up for a nice top in place and a major decline being underway which would line up perfectly with a stock market wave 3.
Hey American T,
I figured out why I couldn't post charts. Apparently, we have a quota with how much charts or space were allowed to use on this forum. I had to go back and delete most of my charts. Now I can post again. Anyways, heres that monthly of S&P i wanted to show you yesterday. As you can see, time wise, this A wave scenario looks more realistic only cause its a monthly.
Glad you got the chart up, and you're right, that correction could be incomplete when you take this perspective, and another rally to the 1500 level would still have the "right look". I almost never look at the weekly, let alone the monthly charts, so I'm glad you brought this up. I also noticed the stochastics have crossed up, and are now trending up too.
With this in mind, I guess it's important to look at volume and breadth on this decline. I think we agree it's either a wave B, or a wave 3. A wave B should have mediocre to flat breadth with average volume. And obviously a wave 3 down should have a total destruction with high volume and weak breadth and huge declines. So far, Friday and this morning are telling us that the wave 3 characteristics are underway. But that can obviously turn on a dime at any point. A break and close below 12,033 in the Dow, especially on increased volume and weak breadth, should seal the deal on the wave 3 down.
Until then, I think it would be a good idea to remain very cautious and flexible.
What do you think? If I remember right you don't actually have any positions in, is that right? Do you plan on putting some in at some point? If so, what's your signal to enter the market?
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moving along nicely -
Price Action has now found solid support at the End of wave 4 low .
Do you think a top is in the USD/JPY through the European session? I don't see 5 down yet, but the way equities are lining up, and the wave 3-like decline this morning in the USD/JPY, it makes a compelling case for a USD/JPY top.
What do you think?
I went short at 107.30 (stop 108.05). I'm also still long the GBP/USD with a very large position.
I like Jememy's count of Usd/Jpy. We do have 3 down from the top but as Amercan T mentioned, we should consoldate a little now and make one more low for a 5. I did not catch the Usd/Jpy but I did manage to catch the drop in Gbp/JPY as I suspect a top there as well. Keep in mind the hourlies are oversold o the Usd/JPY but the daily suggests a drop lasting several days. That does not weigh well for stocks.
The drop down in Euro is done and guess what. In my opinion, its impulsive. It subdivides in 9 mini waves. Wave 1 is actually the extended wave. Im looking to get short soon to set up for the wave III of 3.
Glad you got the chart up, and you're right, that correction could be incomplete when you take this perspective, and another rally to the 1500 level would still have the "right look". I almost never look at the weekly, let alone the monthly charts, so I'm glad you brought this up. I also noticed the stochastics have crossed up, and are now trending up too.
With this in mind, I guess it's important to look at volume and breadth on this decline. I think we agree it's either a wave B, or a wave 3. A wave B should have mediocre to flat breadth with average volume. And obviously a wave 3 down should have a total destruction with high volume and weak breadth and huge declines. So far, Friday and this morning are telling us that the wave 3 characteristics are underway. But that can obviously turn on a dime at any point. A break and close below 12,033 in the Dow, especially on increased volume and weak breadth, should seal the deal on the wave 3 down.
Until then, I think it would be a good idea to remain very cautious and flexible.
What do you think? If I remember right you don't actually have any positions in, is that right? Do you plan on putting some in at some point? If so, what's your signal to enter the market?
Thanks.
American-T
Actually, I only trade forex. I like watching other markets, but for now I have my hands full with forex. I may open up a futures accout soon.
Well seeing that the indexes have fallen off a cliff right at the open, the above quote appears dead wrong so far. However there's some oil news and the beige book that's coming out later and it's possible we'll see a reversal. That VIX buy signal is quite reliable so I'm real leary about things right now. But so far, the markets are very weak. The Nasdaq's declining volume to advancing is already 3.6:1 and the NYSE's is 3.7:1. So this sell off is strong and may have legs that will prove to us that wave 3 is in fact underway, and the long multi-week correction in wave 2 is over.
Again, a break and close below 12,033 in the Dow will confirm that wave 3 down is underway and stocks are headed much much lower (below 10,000)
The USD/JPY might be breaking down. I'd like to see some consolidation at current levels (106.66) and then one more new low to complete a 5 wave down pattern. If that occurs, it will set up for a nice top in place and a major decline being underway which would line up perfectly with a stock market wave 3.
Any thoughts? Italm? Big Mike? Diver? Or anyone?
This is getting exciting isn't it?
American-T
Hello American;
I am not a stock market guru and i am grateful for that. It seems that almost anyone with good BS can get on TV today and repeat the same old lies.
The stocks are going down, another 1% down today for major indices and the market only opened couple hrs ago. Also, europe was down 1%.
We don't know, if it is wave B or 3, but anyone wishing for a much faster decline is only deceiving himself. The drop of 1% per day is huge by any standards. Anything much faster would cause a panic or disorderly nadir situation. I am sure, it will happen closer to the end, when everybody will throw in the towel.
Mike
Hello American;
I am not a stock market guru and i am grateful for that. It seems that almost anyone with good BS can get on TV today and repeat the same old lies.
The stocks are going down, another 1% down today for major indices and the market only opened couple hrs ago. Also, europe was down 1%.
We don't know, if it is wave B or 3, but anyone wishing for a much faster decline is only deceiving himself. The drop of 1% per day is huge by any standards. Anything much faster would cause a panic or disorderly nadir situation. I am sure, it will happen closer to the end, when everybody will throw in the towel.
Mike
The drop down in Euro is done and guess what. In my opinion, its impulsive. It subdivides in 9 mini waves. Wave 1 is actually the extended wave. Im looking to get short soon to set up for the wave III of 3.
Agree, if you ask me, I have been advocating that EURUSD should go down to 1.47 area (former triangle, back in February) before it continues to 1.60 and above.
The move of the last 12 hrs looks corrective, so the next wave should be down.
Mike
Agree, if you ask me, I have been advocating that EURUSD should go down to 1.47 area (former triangle, back in February) before it continues to 1.60 and above.
The move of the last 12 hrs looks corrective, so the next wave should be down.
Mike
Hi Mike, have you viewed the GBP/USD's structure lately? It completed a clear 5 wave rally the past few days, corrected heavily this week but didn't break the beginning of the 5 wave rally. For weeks I've had a question mark on the EUR/USD as a whole. But with cable looking so bullish it seems tough to establish a short bias on the EUR/USD.
I was just wondering if you consider cable or USD/CHF, both seem very dollar bearish, when you look at the EUR/USD.
I'm having trouble with the dollar as a whole. As I've said before, on the daily chart the dollar rally from its all time low definitely looks corrective, so a new low should be established. But that's been a tough stance to take the past few months obviously. Just trying to make sense of it all. But with that clear five wave rally in cable from last week, it seems to present the clearest outlook of all the majors in my opinion.
Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. Forex Capital Markets LLC. will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
English
Español
Français
中文
Deutsch
Italiano
العربية
Sverige
Ελληνικά
Originally Posted by fxctrader
Posting Permissions 
Reply With Quote
