Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

This is free comentary by elliott wave international ... I thought anyone reading this forum especially anyone newer to trading would find this of value

I also attached a diagram that should help with a visual




Trading: How To Identify Support and Resistance Levels
Knowing your market's support and resistance levels helps both long-term investor and a short-term speculators.


By Vadim Pokhlebkin
Wed, 11 Jun 2008 16:45:00 ET


Once again, I sit down to speak with Jeffrey Kennedy, Elliott Wave International's Senior Commodities Analyst and editor of Daily Futures Junctures, a service that brings you daily opportunities in commodity markets.

Vadim Pokhlebkin: Jeffrey, while trading commodity futures and investing in commodities are two different things – mainly, from the time horizon standpoint – when it comes to risk management, the approaches one could use are similar, wouldn't you agree?

Jeffrey Kennedy: Yes, I think so. In both cases, you could -- ahead of time -- identify critical support and resistance levels that may help you stay on track.

VP: Support and resistance? Can you explain?

JK: Simply put, resistance levels are "price ceiling" points that are likely to provide resistance to a trend, while support levels provide "price floor." For example, in a bull market, if the price stays above your support levels and blows through resistance points with ease, things are going well.

VP: And how do you identify those levels?

JK: Well, it takes a lot of hard work; that's a lot of what I do in my Daily Futures Junctures for various commodity markets. I typically use a three-prong approach that is based almost entirely on Fibonacci-calculated proportions between market moves – or waves, as we, Elliotticians, call them. For example, if you look at an idealized diagram of the basic Elliott wave sequence, I can tell you that, at least in commodities, second waves typically retrace .618 percent of first waves. Fourth-wave corrections, on the other hand, tend to retrace .328 or .500 of third waves. All those numbers are Fibonacci ratios.

I have been watching GBPUSD on the sidelines for quite some time now.. I was hoping we might get a chance to get bullish, but as it stands right now This pair is looking bearish.. We are coming up on a support zone again.. If this count is right .. we should get through it this time around...

ATTACHED is the Daily chart of GBPUSD

Here's an idea for the NZDUSD monthly chart....

Originally Posted by brad_1199

This is free comentary by elliott wave international ... I thought anyone reading this forum especially anyone newer to trading would find this of value

I also attached a diagram that should help with a visual

Fibonacci ratios.

Brad, very interesting, thanks for posting
Mike

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Brad, very interesting, thanks for posting
Mike

Anytime Big Mike

Here's a look at the Daily chart of GBPJPY...

Here's a look at AUDJPY... Price has put in a significant rally for a while now... Watch for it to start falling over... We might be about to enter a wave 3 or Wave "C" downward soon if price turns around... Although,, price is now above the 61.8 retracement level.. There is a chance it wants to keep heading higher... We just have to keep our eyes peeled

These charts are quite big... Click the wordpad icon below to view them

$ index Monthly

An update to my chart

I was stopped out when I moved the trade to risk free. Look at the action tonight...euro buy was still a valid setup until the selling just came in. Will watch the hourly bars unfold to see if a bottom can come in and am selling the 3min on pullbacks.

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Gizmo,
I like it, i'd even say, i love it!
I think that you nailed it right on the head. It surely looks like a triangle, which will break to the upside for another 220 pips, counting from the top line.
In other words, it should be at least 212.45 before we see the final top, or i know nothing about triangles.
Mike

Looks like we didn't get the break out as expected. It broke out the top for a few hours, but has come back down within the lines again.

Originally Posted by Gizmo

Looks like we didn't get the break out as expected. It broke out the top for a few hours, but has come back down within the lines again.

Gizmo, i think that it is still a nice trade to the upside and that we will reach those 220 pips from the breakout.
We completed wave i up from the thrust (from 209.68, which was the end of leg e), now we see leg ii down (should be usually deep and swift), which will be followed by leg iii up starting soon.
Mike

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Gizmo, i think that it is still a nice trade to the upside and that we will reach those 220 pips from the breakout.
We completed wave i up from the thrust (from 209.68, which was the end of leg e), now we see leg ii down (should be usually deep and swift), which will be followed by leg iii up starting soon.
Mike

A break out up is definitely still a good possibility. Just out of curiosity I thought I would check the GBP/USD to see if a rise in the cross could occur around the same time. Seems the two could coincide and lift this pair as well. To me it looks like a long in the GBP/USD has a good possibility for a new impulse wave 1 up very soon.

Originally Posted by Gizmo

Looks like we didn't get the break out as expected. It broke out the top for a few hours, but has come back down within the lines again.

I'm not in the trade but I would say be patient. Too often we expect explosive moves. I'm learning more and more, be patient. If your setup/analysis is good, price will get there but most of the time not as fast as we want it too.

Originally Posted by texas pipster

I'm not in the trade but I would say be patient. Too often we expect explosive moves. I'm learning more and more, be patient. If your setup/analysis is good, price will get there but most of the time not as fast as we want it too.

Yes patience is something I am trying very hard to learn. I have to give Brad credit for enlightening me with tips on how to work on that. Now it is up to me to take that and stick to it (hard to do and I still have challenges).

Lack of patience has cost me a few times. Like your previous post of taking profits to early, patience will pay off in the long run if we stick to our original set ups of entry points and targets. This will save us from jumping in to early, on the wrong side of a trade, or closing to soon.

Hey guys, got to make this quick cause I got to run. Usd.JPY is at 200 day moving so could fall from here. Also, do you see what I see on GBP/JPY. I already have my entry set.
Good luck!