Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

We've got some clear short term wave structure on the GBPCHF hourly chart... 5 waves up.. 3 Waves Back....

Comments Opinions ? Come One ... Come All

Here is another nugget we can pick away at...

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Big Mike ,

Economically Speaking ,
the American super Power will not cease to exist until Commodity prices
and Raw materials will not have to be paid for in US Dollars anymore .

- if you want oil or any other commodity or raw material ,
you have to first change your local currency into US Dollars first in order to buy it .

right now as you sit here the Chinese are drilling off the coast of Florida for oil .........
( they made a deal with Cuba to drill for it ) .

Did you know this ?

Well guesss what ..... if they want to sell it ,
they will bring it to the the NYMEX , just like anybody else that wants to sell oil
and they will gets US Dollars for it

Saddam Hussein tried to open an oil trading bourse in Baghdad in 2000 that was doing transaction in euros and we all know, what happened shortly after.
Iran was trying the same concept in Tehran two years ago.
Dubai is talking about opening an oil trading bourse doing transactions in gold.
Even putin in russia was toying with the idea.
One day, one of them will break the monopoly of the USD. It will probably happen within a decade, or less.
In the beginning it will start small and will grow once they iron out all wrinkles and then... watch out, USD.

I didn't know about chinese drilling for oil off Cuba, but i know that a canadian company call Sherritt gordon was developing a shallow field in the bay outside of Varadero few years ago; shallow bay, kind of like Florida Bay. As a penalty employyes of Sherritt Gordon are banned from entering the US territory.
Mike

Here we go.....

NYTimes.com
Plan Would Lift Saudi Oil Output
Saturday June 14, 7:35 pm ET
By JAD MOUAWAD
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is planning to increase its output next month by about a half-million barrels a day, according to analysts and oil traders who have been briefed by Saudi officials.

04:20 Saudi Oil Chief To Address Reports Of Oil Increase - AP Sydney, June 15: AP is reporting that an adviser to the Saudi oil minister will address reports that the world"s largest oil-producing country is set to raise production by about 500,000 barrels per day. The increase was reported by the NY Times on Saturday. Adviser Ibrahim al-Muhanna told The Associated Press on Saturday that he could not confirm the reports, but added: "Minister Ali al-Naimi will clarify this tomorrow." Saudi Arabia has called for a meeting of oil producing and consuming countries on June 22 in the port city of Jiddah to discuss ways of dealing with soaring energy prices. The New York Times report on Saturday, citing unnamed analysts and oil traders briefed by Saudi officials, said the production increase was to be announced following the meeting.-- John.Noonan@thomsonreuters.com

Hello All;

I have completed my analysis of the EUR/USD. I have concluded the EUR/USD has started wave 2 of 3 of 5 and will correct back to the 50 to 78.6% fib ratio over the next 4 to 8 and possibly more years. Over the next 2 months I expect the EUR/USD to trade down to the 1.46 to 1.43 range

Before, I conclude, my hats off ot Jamie. He has some of the best instincts I have encountered. I remember his original call on the EUR/USD pair was a trade down to the mid-point of wave 4 which is exactly the likely scenario over the next 2 months.

The charts are in the analysis which, I will gladly provide. I you would like a copy send me a PM.

Good Luck.

Sorry Guys;

I could not PM so hear is my analysis. It has not been edited and feed back is welcome.

Good Luck.

Originally Posted by aerocom

Sorry Guys;

I could not PM so hear is my analysis. It has not been edited and feed back is welcome.

Good Luck.

Excellent piece of work. To me it is clear and makes a lot of sense.

Hi Guys,

Not back to trading central yet. :-) Checking in from on the road. Trying to stay in touch with what's happening. Here is a daily Euro chart as it looks to me at the moment. Very oversold stochastics and RSI neutral. Haven't done any in depth analysis so it's shooting from the hip right now. Comments?

GBPCHF gapped lower.... Perfect opportunity for a buy

Originally Posted by Gizmo

Excellent piece of work. To me it is clear and makes a lot of sense.

Gizmo
firstly, i want to thank you for identifying the triangle situation in GBPJPY. I am in it still, up 120 pips so far, but there is probably another up 120 pips or better to go yet, before we see the culmination point. Are you in it?

After that we should see a nice reversal; this time i think that the drop will be impulsive, the one that we all waited for for the last 2 months.
Mike

Originally Posted by aerocom

Sorry Guys;

I could not PM so hear is my analysis. It has not been edited and feed back is welcome.

Good Luck.

Hi aerocom,
Very impressive work. It shows that you are really taking this thing seriously. Thanks for sharing.

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Dubai is talking about opening an oil trading bourse doing transactions in gold.
Even putin in russia was toying with the idea.

Big Miike

Gold , is a commodity ,
So again i say to you ,
the value of Gold is measured and traded in Us Dollars


( Gold is traded in Dollars per/ ounce ) .........
Dubai , just like everyone else will still have to deal in Dollars
to get the value of the Gold being presented
in order for customers to pay Dubai for oil.....

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Big Miike

Gold , is a commodity ,
So again i say to you ,
the value of Gold is measured and traded in Us Dollars


( Gold is traded in Dollars per/ ounce ) .........
Dubai , just like everyone else will still have to deal in Dollars
to get the value of the Gold being presented
in order for customers to pay Dubai for oil.....

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Market;
we live in a dynamic world, the only constant part of life is change.
During the last 50 years we witnessed the demise of GBP as the world currency and emergence of USD that took place of the GBP. How long will it last? Until the USD is replaced by another currency. Which one? None of them is ready yet, but maybe one of them will be raedy soon.

At some point the US will have to devalue the currency dramatically to cover unfunded liabilities (pension, medicaid etc) that run into tens of trillions dollars. What will happen then?

You know probably that there are some fairly advanced talks about introducing new currency in north america, called Amero, which will be equivalent to Euro. In the beginning it will include the US, canada and mexico.
Also, there is talk (pure theory for now) about eliminating money altogether and introducing units based on energy, like 1 kWh instead.

I guess, I am saying that many factors can influence the future of the USD as the world's reserve currency; we will need to wait and see.

Mike

Originally Posted by aerocom

Hello All;

I have completed my analysis of the EUR/USD. I have concluded the EUR/USD has started wave 2 of 3 of 5 and will correct back to the 50 to 78.6% fib ratio over the next 4 to 8 and possibly more years. Over the next 2 months I expect the EUR/USD to trade down to the 1.46 to 1.43 range

Before, I conclude, my hats off ot Jamie. He has some of the best instincts I have encountered. I remember his original call on the EUR/USD pair was a trade down to the mid-point of wave 4 which is exactly the likely scenario over the next 2 months.

The charts are in the analysis which, I will gladly provide. I you would like a copy send me a PM.

Good Luck.

Very nice work, aerocom
I agree with the two of your conclusions, which happen to be short and medium term.
1. EURUSD should drop to the wave 4 of lesser degree, which is around 1.45+/- 200 pips
2. Afterwards, EURUSD should go higher, above 1.60, to complete wave 5 of III. How high? Your target of 1.65 or 1.70 makes total sense. In fact, one of the guys (it was danish, i believe) arrived also at 1.70 at one time by using fibonacci ratios few months ago.

Any longer time frame is beyond my horizon; you are looking then at the year 2009.

Mike