Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by italm31

Hey guys,
Here's a heads up. I think Market is right about the Usd/Jpy. We may get a huge rally soon. Of al the Yen pairs, the one showing the least clarity has is now showing the the best wave count. This is only a possibility of coarse but I see no other. Also notice price has not come into wave 1 territory which is below 165. Finally, if wave 5 is to begin now, how far will it go. Well the this market has given us a gift. Wave 1 is 1326 pips long...Wave 3 is only 1086 pips long. You know what that means. Wave 5 must be the shortest wave so less than 1086 pips. What do you guys think?

italm,
I fully agree with you. wave 5 must be equal to 0,618xwave 3 or at the most 0,786xwave 3. This is the scenario if we dont fall lower than the top of wave 1.I am at red alarm for shorting heavily the eur/jpy. we will probaly see 148-155 by the end of the year taking under consideration that eur/usd will probably top in the 1,62-1,64 area and usd/jpy will not exceed the 112 area. Also a truncated 5th wave is a probable scenario.I will keep you update.

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I don't know what to make of the shorter term picture of this pair.. But I can tell you from a candlestick perspective on the weekly chart, EURJPY topped out for now and I expect a move lower.. There is a huge Hanging Man confirming a double doji at the top of the run up on the weekly chart.. That's got reversal written all over it.. I'm going with the triangle scenario I posted in here a while ago, which was my original assumption for the pair...

I'm short now with a stop at 169.75, and a conservative target at 160.75 ( The 50% Fib retracement of the Wave "D" Rally ) Although I suspect price will retrace deeper..

brad,
I fully i agree with you if the pair doesnt closes the week with a new high.How I can i send you a private message?

Originally Posted by FIDELIO

brad,
I fully i agree with you if the pair doesnt closes the week with a new high.How I can i send you a private message?

Looks like we got the turn you were looking for in EURJPY Fidelio There is a button at the top middle of the page called USER CP.. You can send private messages through there...

Hi everyone,

I gave up on the failed flat idea for the 4th wave ( I like MarketWavez2's count for my 5th wave a lot more, thanks for that Marketwavez2 if you're reading this ), but I'm still very bullish on the long term. For me, in the bigger picture, the monthly triangle is a wave B correction and we're looking to shoot out to the upside, so that's why I'm looking for a wave 1 up which has probably ended, and now a wave 2 correction down again. This wave 2 has a ABC(W) - X pattern so now looking for another ABC(Y). First wave A is 5 waves, B is 3 waves, C is 5 waves again so that's a zigzag, which makes this double zigzag idea possible.

Another reason why I like this count is that wave 2 didn't retrace far enough back yet, wave Y should end low enough for this to be solved. 161.8% of W would put price near 99.61, just below the 61.8% retracement for the 95.70 - 108.40 (truncated 5th) which is around 100.55. The 100% of W would put price around 102.46, this is near the 50% retracement around 102.05. All of this if wave X is complete, else I'd have to recalculate, but I'm sure it would still be very close to these better levels for an end of wave 2.

Still lots of possibile counts on this pair, so it's hard to pick one.

Friendly greetings,
Jeremy

Bank of America has called the top for AUDNZD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aNGuhJJFslpY


PSST! (I SMELL GREED! -- THE BANK IS TRYING TO HOG ALL THE PRICE ACTION !!) When the bank makes comments like this.. I smell a correction brought on by mass long position unwinding and bank selling, but don't let the bank fool you.. Elliott Wave Principle says we get a correction followed by some more upside.. Haha.. Screw the bank !! We know what's going on here.. lol

Here's what I'm seeing on the USDJPY weekly chart right now..

For those of us who shorted AUDJPY .. I think now would be ample to say we're feeling the heat... Price double topped at the top of the weekly rally just yesterday.. Too close for comfort if you ask me... We shall have to see how the week closes tomorrow...

I was just looking at the EURJPY Long term monthly chart again.. I find it's a little easier to switch to a line chart for counting purposes it cleans up a lot of the mess... I've been thinking for years that we may possibly be in a new long term bull market in EURJPY.. Here's a solid count to support it...

The Line Chart shows price action since roughly 1980 up to 2000 was and ending diagonal triangle. It's wide so you will have to click the wordpad icon to see that one.

I also posted 2 other Monthly charts zoomed in so you can see that The Orthodox Ending of Large wave "C/2" (BIG BLACK 2) ends lower than wave "A" of the wave 2 correction in the new long term bull trend when price is changed to a line chart.. (Which validates the bull trend) (Plus Wave 1 looks more like a wave 1 than a wave "A" so I don't give any credit to a corrective count as I have seen Jaime post having us in a large Wave "C" of a long term ABC) Have a look at both closely.. Do you all see what I'm seeing here ? I think we're in a long term wave 3 of 3 upward in this pair.. ""Thing is.. It's over such a long time period that it's just not evident to most people"

A trained eye sees a different picture though...

And now that you've considered this count, scroll a bit further down the page and check post #9504 for a slightly different view..

Hi Brad, Thanks for the update and even with your monthly chart it seems that top has been formed in wave D so E should start from these levels? Can you pls give some more insight for today's trading only in this pair? Thanks

Originally Posted by SKS

Hi Brad, Thanks for the update and even with your monthly chart it seems that top has been formed in wave D so E should start from these levels? Can you pls give some more insight for today's trading only in this pair? Thanks

Take no action on the EURJPY pair today until 3:55pm EST right before the weekend close.. ( I am short already, but for added confirmation for short positions, If price cannot make a new high before the close today, I would say short it right before the close With a stop at 169.75 and a target at 160.75.. Or if you wish to get out earlier... I suspect a down week next week so you could possibly take short profits early next week. I hope this helps you.. I usually don't trade such short term as a day trade..

Hi Brad, Yes you hace certainly helped me with this valuable feedback, really respect and appreciate your help. I will go with your suggestion to wait for the top before weekend closing. Is there any other lucrative trade for today? Cheers

Originally Posted by SKS

Hi Brad, Yes you hace certainly helped me with this valuable feedback, really respect and appreciate your help. I will go with your suggestion to wait for the top before weekend closing. Is there any other lucrative trade for today? Cheers

Shorter Term I would maybe look for a GBPUSD long position once price gets back down towards the up trend line with a stop on the other side of it... As for a day trade.. You shall have to dig up your own friend.. I try to stay away from day trading.. It's risky biz..

Thanks once again. I was actually short in GBP/USD @2.0036 and booked profit at 1.9989 too early as since then its just keep going down so now as per your advise will go long around 1.9867 levels. Thanks

I would also like to point out in EURJPY on the monthly chart when price is changed into a line chart price appears to have already completed the wave 4 correction with a truncated Wave "C" and is now in wave 5 up, visible by price breaking out to new highs... Tricky Tricky Tricky... I think we might already be in wave 5 of 3 upward.. Always more than one way to see everything.

Originally Posted by brad_1199

I would also like to point out in EURJPY on the monthly chart when price is changed into a line chart price appears to have already completed the wave 4 correction with a truncated Wave "C" and is now in wave 5 up, visible by price breaking out to new highs... Tricky Tricky Tricky... I think we might already be in wave 5 of 3 upward.. Always more than one way to see everything.

Brad,
Although I agree with you there should be also a bear count. I have to stress to you that this pair as a cross rate is mostly affected from usd/jpy. By predicting the eur/jpy rate, we are predicting the usd/jpy mostly and the eur/usd secondly.So if you favour such a big upward move, you should get long also to the usd/jpy.Does this fit to your overall analysis?