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08-26-2008, 06:55 AM #10411
Originally Posted by Gizmo
08-26-2008, 07:10 AM #10412
GBPUSD Monthly Chart
GBPUSD monthly charts attached...
For now it is clear GBPUSD is in a hell of a bear trend... I can barely believe the size of the downward move we have seen in this pair over the last month.. A trend line drawn off the lows from 1985 to the lows from 2001 identifies a long term support line going forward... With price making such a swift move to the downside this month, I have little doubt that price will eventually come back to that trend line area to test for support before any further rallies to the upside... I think we could be in a Large Wave "C" on the monthly chart.. With wave 1 of large "C" completed and now correcting in wave 2.. (Wave 2 is swift to the downside just as we have been seeing)
I think we've got a whole lot more downside to go and the party is just getting started...
Jaime.. I have no clue on earth how you could possibly say you are a GBPUSD bull at the 1.85 level.. ------>> Not a frickin clue Bud !!
Last edited by brad_1199; 08-26-2008 at 07:53 AM.
08-26-2008, 07:53 AM #10413
I seem to remember the mentioning of a triangle that was more than 5 waves in the Elliott Wave Principle book.. I was just thinking that this correction in USDJPY has corrected pretty high back into the triangle it supposedly broke out of... We shall see if price continues higher still.. Perhaps this pair will not break down as quick as we'd all like... I am playing close to the vest with USDJPY... I think there is plenty of opportunity for this market to fool us... USD and JPY are both showing strength... I am picturing something like a tug-a-war between the two currencies unless we get a huge downward break out I have long awaited...
I know someone is deffinately going to grill me on this count... Bring it on... LOL
08-26-2008, 08:57 AM #10414
Originally Posted by justy10125
I wanted to post this last night but my laptop battery was empty and had left the charger at the office. So, hope you didn't lose out on all the action this morning.
In my view we are in a big ABC correction from 1.60. and headed for the multi year suport line at the lower 1.44's (see chart)
We are currently in wave 4 (wave 3 just ended at 4570) and wave 5 will bring us to the above mentioned support.
From there it is up. The quetion is how far?
Will we get to an new high or a trunckated wave 5? I don't know.
08-26-2008, 09:33 AM #10415
Hey guys, while Im not convinced all the dollar pairs have reached their extreme yet, the end is near. The Swissie however, I believe their is a ver high probability of a top. I have taken a small position and look to add on the next minor swing correction.
08-26-2008, 09:42 AM #10416
Possible end of wave 5 down?
08-26-2008, 12:47 PM #10417
Originally Posted by Ilovepippin
I agree with the direction of the move. However, my count has the EUR$ in wave 5 and my targets are a bit lower.
Elliott stated that we could expect a 5 wave impulse to correct to the terminus of wave 4 which, in this case is at 1.4306. However, applying some of the other rules would give us (Wave 1 = 521 points) wave 5 low at 1.4384; (61.8% of wave 1 through 3 = 535 points) wave 5 low at 1.4373.) Finally 38.2% retracement of the entire move up is 1.4373.
There is also the probability of a 5th wave truncation but, it looks like the target is between 4384 and 4306. Then up as you state.
08-26-2008, 01:04 PM #10418
Keep your stops tight. Looks to me like a 3 wave correction. If it is, then a new high is in order. E waves in expanded triangles are tricky. They either stop at 61.8% or blow out big. This one didn't stop.
Originally Posted by italm31
08-26-2008, 01:14 PM #10419
08-26-2008, 01:52 PM #10420
I hear you guys...Im still not sure about this one but the way I see it, the real risk lies in not takng this trade. I have so little to lose if Im wrong and we make a new high. But if Im right and this is the top, I have so much more to gain. Since the beginning of my trading career if theres one line that keeps coming up, its this: Don't pick tops and bottoms. To that I say this, if everyone followed that advice, nothing would ever top or bottom. My advice is this: If your bearish, sell the rallys and wait until proven wrong. If your bullish, buy the bottoms and stick to your guns. If your wrong wait for the next opportunity. Thats my style of trade. Im a top and bottom picker. I go for home runs not singals. Trust me when I say, those homers more than cover for my losses...and isn't that the point! That style of trade is not for everyone and thats fine. Find a style that suits your personality and stick to it. Keep an eye out for FOMC minutes at 2pm. Good luck to everyone.
Last edited by italm31; 08-26-2008 at 04:29 PM.
08-26-2008, 02:10 PM #10421
Originally Posted by italm31
LMAO. I like your style! Sign me up for your hedge fund now! I'm more inclined to do it your way. My chart was just pointing out the spot where I would believe definitely that a top was in. Nothing like a serious month long trend line break to give your trade a boost!
08-26-2008, 02:24 PM #10422
LOL...If I start a hedge fund, youll be my first client
Originally Posted by diver
08-26-2008, 03:09 PM #10423
The candle formed today in USDCAD tells me that we should see some more downside in this pair in the days to come... I am trying a short position since price hasn't found any decent support on the downside yet.. I think we should see price back at the upper triangle line for a re-test for support at the very least..
08-26-2008, 06:00 PM #10424
Brad, or anyone?
A short term AUD/USD chart, 1hr,15min or 5min, please, post....short....term....chart. I'm dieing here. I see three waves down within the fifth wave but I'm not sure. Anyone, give a brother a clue. Thanks ahead of time.
08-26-2008, 08:20 PM #10425
nevermind i have confirmation