Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by italm31

Thats a definite possibility. I actually considered your count first but the reason I looked for another count was your wave c of 4 looks like a 3 waver when you look at the smaller charts like a 15 min. Also, although your looking at commonidies, Im looking at the other dollar pairs. The Euro is already in a wave 5, why would the Aussie still be in a wave 4. The pound touched the upper trend line of a possible diagonal, the kiwi looks like an expanded flat as well and may have actually topped last week (I believe Jamie wrote it in his technicals the same week it topped). Fracturing all that in, I don't think it would make much sense for the Aussie to be starting a wave 5. Also, until your wave 3 is breech, you can't be sure were in wave 5. Still, your count is valid and shouldn't be ignored.
So now we have 2 wave counts to look at. This is actually an easy one to solve. Once your wave 4 or my wave b is breech, well know the next leg down has begun. But if Im right, with enough volatility, it may be breech in a one swoop so even if you put in an entry, you may be filled in much lower that the price you want. Thats y Im may actually use a straddle on this one. (sell the Aussi, buy the Kiwi right before) Ill let the loser go once I get confirmation of where the market is going. I don't use this technique often, just where i believe were at a major top or bottom cause if Im right, we could be going the other direction for a while so a small loss at the beginning is not the end of the world.

Yeah only a breach of 0.9271 can confirm my count, actually at first I thought the c wave of 4 was 3 waves too, but since I'm still bullish I counted either wave i or iii being extended. And the thing I noticed most was that wave c was close to 100% of wave a. And Aussie is rising while I'm typing this, 10 pips from 0.9271.

USDJPY setting up perfectly for a PLUNGE this afternoon. Waves 4 and 5 at a very small degree are required to complete a wave 1 down....then wave 2 up...then the big fall. The timeline is setting up for this to happen around 2:00....hmm

Originally Posted by JohanS

Yeah only a breach of 0.9271 can confirm my count, actually at first I thought the c wave of 4 was 3 waves too, but since I'm still bullish I counted either wave i or iii being extended. And the thing I noticed most was that wave c was close to 100% of wave a. And Aussie is rising while I'm typing this, 10 pips from 0.9271.

Well if Im not mistaken, your wave 3 was taken out so I believe your right. This puts us into wave 5. This puts a damper on my straddle technique. Im not quite sure anymore. Wave 5 does not look ready to plunge so we may complete wave 5 till non farm on friday.

Originally Posted by italm31

Well if Im not mistaken, your wave 3 was taken out so I believe your right. This puts us into wave 5. This puts a damper on my straddle technique. Im not quite sure anymore. Wave 5 does not look ready to plunge so we may complete wave 5 till non farm on friday.

Because the rise is kind of ugly I am considering this other possibility, that if we get an impulse down it's a wave c of a bigger wave 4 correction. I hope this won't happen though, but well with FOMC, Core PCE and Non Farm till this week ends anything can still happen.

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

USDJPY setting up perfectly for a PLUNGE this afternoon. Waves 4 and 5 at a very small degree are required to complete a wave 1 down....then wave 2 up...then the big fall. The timeline is setting up for this to happen around 2:00....hmm

Ok, I am going italm on everyone here and showing the 1 minute chart. Given that this clear 5 happened just pips away from where a = c, the USDJPY could be at the beginning of wave 3 lower within the 5 wave bear cycle from 117.93....this would mean a break of 111.59. We all know how this thing moves. Once it gets going, it is hard to get into it, which is why getting in as close to the top as possible is vital to making money in the Yen.

Originally Posted by Jamie Saettele

Ok, I am going italm on everyone here and showing the 1 minute chart. Given that this clear 5 happened just pips away from where a = c, the USDJPY could be at the beginning of wave 3 lower within the 5 wave bear cycle from 117.93....this would mean a break of 111.59. We all know how this thing moves. Once it gets going, it is hard to get into it, which is why getting in as close to the top as possible is vital to making money in the Yen.

Hey sometimes its a necessary evil...lol.

Your right about that 5 waver. It doesn't get prettier than that. I just wish the other Yen pairs we showing something similar.

Hey guys, we just completed a 5 waver on a 1 min chart from the top the pound as well. The Euro also looks to have completed 5 waves on 2 different degrees.

1 min charts??? Noooo heh heh heh.

My opinion on the euro we'll probably see a 4th wave correction soon. The 2.618 expansion of the upmove from 1.4374 is about 1.4495 so a pullback may be coming soon.

Originally Posted by kcar1

1 min charts??? Noooo heh heh heh.

My opinion on the euro we'll probably see a 4th wave correction soon. The 2.618 expansion of the upmove from 1.4374 is about 1.4495 so a pullback may be coming soon.

I see a pull back too starting very shortly. Plus we just hit a very important psychological barrier 1.4500

London session should be great tonight so fill up on coffee or take a nap or something. That USDJPY short is still my favorite with a CADJPY short a close second.

Hey Jamie..I've been watching USDJPY and the reversal is suppose to be happening around the current price. I was wondering if you have a messenger like AIM/YAHOO/ETC or if there's a chat room we could go to during this fall :-D

AIM/YAHOO = limitmaker

Thanks,
Adrian

Could the action from 10:30 this morning (Wednesday, so I guess that's yesterday) be a triangle? In that case we'd be at the turn from wave d to wave e.

(Anybody awake btw?)

Originally Posted by AdrianEI

Hey Jamie..I've been watching USDJPY and the reversal is suppose to be happening around the current price. I was wondering if you have a messenger like AIM/YAHOO/ETC or if there's a chat room we could go to during this fall :-D

AIM/YAHOO = limitmaker

Thanks,
Adrian

The USDJPY is touching the objectives that I have mentioned for a few weeks now....this 115.60ish area. If you are willing to take some risk, then entering around here with a stop above 117.00 seems reasonable to me. Here is my reasoning. If this is the reversal, then it should reverse well before 117. If it gets above 117, then it is probably going to 120. Then I would look to short there. Those that do not want to take so much risk should wait for a drop below 115.18 and get short there against the high (whatever the high ends up being). This is how I would play this.

Originally Posted by spin the o

Could the action from 10:30 this morning (Wednesday, so I guess that's yesterday) be a triangle? In that case we'd be at the turn from wave d to wave e.

(Anybody awake btw?)

I am awake. What pair are you referring to?

I'm awake...awaiting this USDJPY What are your thoughts on it Jamie?