Thread: Elliott Wave Trading Discussion

Originally Posted by diver

Italm,

Not so fast. If the EW contracting triangle is discarded we could be still working on the flat with this being wave b of wave C with wave c of C to still come. This would fit nicely into a classic "descending" triangle pattern instead of a contracting EW triangle.

Diver, I must admit, I didn't think of that. However, I must reiterate in any correctio, weather a plain old abc or a trinagle, once b is breeched, chances are MUCH HIGHER the correction is over. But your right, we need a new low below 839.80 for confirmation.

Potential Head & Shoulder bottom looks good.



Stocks? CRAZY. Total technical breakdown and then 300 points so far back up. I guess the October low has held so the buying is coming in. The other day I said a bottom today which is a turning point day as well as the full moon. I just didn't expect it to be from this lower level.

Originally Posted by marketwavez2

Eur/Usd

Here is another view of the Eur/Usd if your heart is Bullish ......

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Hi,
I agree with your wave counting. Retracement should extend to 1.2650 area. And from that area should start a new bearish movment.
Let's see what happens ...

Here is my take.
The correlation with gold is unmistakable. Oil is also still dropping.
We we might see some temporary relief but downtrend will resume.
Wave C of this correctional move might run flat, watch for break of upper TL.
I want to await a decicive break of 2330, before adding any shorts.
We might hit a double bottom there and we will start a wave B of bigger degree.
Long term, economic forecast I see movement in the housing market. Also commodities are coming down, like oil and that will give relief to consumer. After the next quarter figures are out, which will be abismal, we should see some improvement.

Guys, this is my best guess about whats going on with the Eur/Jpy. Here is price action since the break of the wave 4 triangle. We come back to touch the trend line that broke the triangle. Bombs away! (hopefully) I got egg on my face a few times today shorting this thing.

I'm done shorting the Euro, just got beat up again trying to short

I got extremely fortunate today.
I had closed out all but one short yesterday evening. This morning my target of 2350 was not met and I was 46 pips behind, so I opened a long to cover my trade. My stop on the short was 1.26 and my TP on the long 1.29.
My stop was taken out during this explosion and I actually came out with a profit, because I 'burned' my long at 1.27.

Not a bad week sofar. I made more than 700 pips this week. I used to get burned on the exotic pairs like Yen crosses and AUS, but I stopped trading those, just stick to what you know, €$.
I would have never been able to do this without EW knowledge and help of this forum! Thank you!

BTW the 2.61 extension of this wave is at 1.29.
For now, I am out until the dust settles.

i have to say i was also fortunate to close my shorts after those 5 waves, and the apex. but i still lost quite some money while catching the top, so not very satisfied.
anyway, thats a huge bear squeeze right now, and risk appetite seems to be returning
the audjpy long looks definetely good
and watching the usdcad.. trendline break and 5waves down.. lets wait for a trendline retest in 3 waves.
and the euro.. may be heading up in the nearterm, but it is not a impulse, so.. looking again to identify that wave 4 high! 1,33 again?
and then short down again...
down to where? see attachment.
1,14/1,13

Originally Posted by newtrader83

I'm done shorting the Euro, just got beat up again trying to short

try a bigger SL and a smaller lot size and let your trades run, the euro is headed down still and in the last 2.5 months I have not lost a short on euro or any dollar pair, let it run it will hit profit unless you are bottom feeding

500 pips in 3 hours!
Totally insane!

Originally Posted by cmellon

I went long AUD USD and have accumulated a sizable position. Will keep adding to long position.

Oil has reached $55. How much lower can it go?
Commodity currency will recover nicely when oil recovers. Many oil producing countries will choose to stop production as the cost is higher than the market price, which over time will drive the oil price up.

looks like a bullish engulfing candle is forming on the daily chart and price bounced right off the 61.8 fib level. (from the low of 60.05 to high of 70.14) Do you believe it is safe to enter?

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

I got extremely fortunate today.
I had closed out all but one short yesterday evening. This morning my target of 2350 was not met and I was 46 pips behind, so I opened a long to cover my trade. My stop on the short was 1.26 and my TP on the long 1.29.
My stop was taken out during this explosion and I actually came out with a profit, because I 'burned' my long at 1.27.

Not a bad week sofar. I made more than 700 pips this week. I used to get burned on the exotic pairs like Yen crosses and AUS, but I stopped trading those, just stick to what you know, €$.
I would have never been able to do this without EW knowledge and help of this forum! Thank you!

BTW the 2.61 extension of this wave is at 1.29.
For now, I am out until the dust settles.

can you post a chart illustrating what you are saying here ... thanx

Eur/Usd

There was a Double Bottom down there after all .............


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The markets don't always move on Funny-mentals
at times , they move on pure technicals

the rally in the Euro/Usd pair today was very technical in nature
and the extra push is probably comming from short-covering .

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I had some long positions I just closed, I wanted to hold on to em but meeting my daily goals were more important. However I would like to hear some of your ideas on the Eurusd. Most seem to think its going to stay bearish in the longterm, I see some bulls lingering around though as well.. Dailyfx seems to think its still bearish until a level that its teetering on breaking at the moment