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06-20-2009, 05:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
--.ow anyone can be calling for USD strength......I don't know...
Here is the Daily, USD/CHF chart.
Neckline broken and tested.
No where to go but down.
Typically after a throwback it is a confirmation of the pattern, prices usually head straight down........
One print below 1.0589 and this will become the realization of most traders....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by speculator84
Doesn't it bother you guys that the FED announced QE the same time the CHF started it's downward run? 30 yr bonds have been collapsing and yields have been skyrocketing.
The day the FED announced QE the USD bull was shot dead...... we need to remember these things.
USD/CHF fell from 1.1967 to 1.1160 that week. The bull market was started with the credit crunch and rush into treasuries.....now we are seeing the opposite....treasuries are collapsing. Quite violently too.
Coming into this week, the g-8 sent out messaging of a full recovery in progress...even talk on how to scale things back...to me that means risk is on.....
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marketwavez2
Speculator ,
Please watch this Usd/Chf chart .................
Watch for prices to close above 0830
I'm re posting it again
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Us Dollar - ( Chart Update )
Speculator , here we are today ............... 
a few trading days have gone by now
so here here is the chart result ,,,,,,,,,,
" THE EVIDENCE IS ALWAYS IN THE CHARTS "
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Last edited by marketwavez2; 06-20-2009 at 06:09 PM..
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06-20-2009, 06:06 PM
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CAD
Hello
I just wanted to toss out one more option for the USD/CAD discussion.
I labeled the wave 4 correction as a combination with a triangle as "Y" based on what I see in the EWP Book page 53.
On the charts post I think what is labeled as "A" is a 3-3-5 so I labeled it "W". What is labeled "B" I see as a 5-3-5 so I labeled it "X" and then the Triangle that has played out over the last two days as "Y".
I have one labeled in blue and says the triangle is complete and we are working on the 5 Waves up for wave 5. The other is in Red and says we need to complete wave e down yet before the 5 up.
One question I do have is that the books says when e is complete it should thrust out of the triangle and extend the length of the widest part of the triangle. Is the thrust for the start of wave 1 or from the trendline break.
If it is from the start of wave 1 and the triangle is finished then we would have a truncated wave 5. If it is from the break out point then my target would be 1.1475.
Thanks and Comments welcome.
Last edited by EZCashDreams; 06-20-2009 at 06:09 PM..
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06-20-2009, 07:29 PM
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Posts: 158
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Usdyen daily
On the USDYEN daily chart I have posted here several times, the pair has moved on over time to now complete what I have labeled as X wave. My positions were entered long at 95.60 with targets above 101 ( to be determined over time). I also closed short positions I was holding from 98.50. As always we have to re-evaluate each desicion over time as the market will change it's objectives without sending me a memo!
I'm finding EW to be very valuable in trading forex And thanks to many on this forum for their continued priceless knowledge. Hopefully when you spot mistakes or points of agreement on my charts you are comfortable in pointing them out.
Gut feeling tells me we have not completed forming x wave, you will notice the deliberate move above 97.09 to mean we cannot make 5 waves down if we continue further on this x wave.
Closed half my long position @ 97. I'm still convinced we cannot break below 93.80 but would rather enter lower than keep holding my full position and trapping my capital.
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06-20-2009, 09:14 PM
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$
Here is a eurusd bullish count. It looks very possible right now, more so because the price is not behaving like an impulse now, more like a correction. Also the $index suggests one more wave down in 3:3:5 fashion.
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06-20-2009, 09:16 PM
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Posts: 158
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gbpjpy DAILY
A cross below 154.90 will open the flood gates on this one
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06-20-2009, 10:34 PM
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Cable daily
Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
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Brad, on Cable I absolutely concur that we could see a triangle forming here. Working in lockstep with the Euro before moving to complete a 5th wave. |
06-20-2009, 10:56 PM
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S&P
Here are my thoughts on the S&P. I don't trade e-mini or EFT funds, but here's a chart nevertheless.
__________________
Chemistry....It's Elementary!
Last edited by Zero Gravity; 06-21-2009 at 09:45 AM..
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06-21-2009, 08:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zero Gravity
Here are my thoughts on the S&P. I don't trade e-mini or EFT funds, but here's a chart nevertheless.
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Very nice chart. |
06-21-2009, 09:42 AM
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SP500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zero Gravity
Here are my thoughts on the S&P. I don't trade e-mini or EFT funds, but here's a chart nevertheless.
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Nice chart indeed. Here is a slight alternative. They are both calling for coming weakness.
Last edited by apipintime; 06-21-2009 at 12:34 PM..
Reason: Added different chart
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06-21-2009, 09:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by apipintime
Nice chart indeed. Here is a slight alternative. They are both calling for coming weakness.
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What would be interesting, is if we see dollar weakness and equity weakness (S&P, DOW, etc.) at the same time. They have been moving at an inverse relationship for over a year now, but I believe as a group, we are looking for it in our anaysis. I guess we will see!
__________________
Chemistry....It's Elementary!
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06-21-2009, 10:05 AM
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Zero
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zero Gravity
What would be interesting, is if we see dollar weakness and equity weakness (S&P, DOW, etc.) at the same time. They have been moving at an inverse relationship for over a year now, but I believe as a group, we are looking for it in our anaysis. I guess we will see!
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I don't believe we will. There is still enough evidence to suggest that, on days where fear picks up in the market, the dollar is getting bought. For now, I think the bottom in equities holds, as per your potential B wave or my potential truncated fifth, and we do get another massive rally towards the end of the year. |
06-21-2009, 10:51 AM
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Posts: 1,390
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EZ
Quote:
Originally Posted by EZCashDreams
Hello
I just wanted to toss out one more option for the USD/CAD discussion.
I labeled the wave 4 correction as a combination with a triangle as "Y" based on what I see in the EWP Book page 53.
On the charts post I think what is labeled as "A" is a 3-3-5 so I labeled it "W". What is labeled "B" I see as a 5-3-5 so I labeled it "X" and then the Triangle that has played out over the last two days as "Y".
I have one labeled in blue and says the triangle is complete and we are working on the 5 Waves up for wave 5. The other is in Red and says we need to complete wave e down yet before the 5 up.
One question I do have is that the books says when e is complete it should thrust out of the triangle and extend the length of the widest part of the triangle. Is the thrust for the start of wave 1 or from the trendline break.
If it is from the start of wave 1 and the triangle is finished then we would have a truncated wave 5. If it is from the break out point then my target would be 1.1475.
Thanks and Comments welcome.
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Hey EZ,
From a triangle perspective, your blue count would have the A-C line violated and invalidate that as a potential triangle count. The red count with Y ending in the 1250 range looks like a good count to me. Looks like we either go straight up from here, or one more bout of weakness as per your red count, and then up.
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06-21-2009, 11:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ilovepippin
Here is a eurusd bullish count. It looks very possible right now, more so because the price is not behaving like an impulse now, more like a correction. Also the $index suggests one more wave down in 3:3:5 fashion.
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Here's a bearish count. EURUSD 4 hour chart. It has retraced to the .618 Fib..., 
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06-21-2009, 12:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grin
Here's a bearish count. EURUSD 4 hour chart. It has retraced to the .618 Fib...,
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And that is how to trade it: short at 3700 long at 4200. You may still end up on the short side of the trade but according to EW rules, they would be good trades. |
06-21-2009, 12:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zero Gravity
Here are my thoughts on the S&P. I don't trade e-mini or EFT funds, but here's a chart nevertheless.
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Yes, nice count... I will definately add it as the alternate to the main count.
Now we have two good looking options |
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