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06-30-2009, 07:59 PM
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GBPUSD
If you're not holding long GBPUSD.. Price is sitting right on top of the 100.0 extension after punching though it... Just begging bulls to have some fun !  Might see a few more days of sideways chopping to complete wave 4 of "C" , but ultimately price should head higher towards the 161.8 FIB Extension at 1.7386
Last edited by brad_1199; 06-30-2009 at 08:02 PM..
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06-30-2009, 08:32 PM
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Caution
Quote:
Originally Posted by brad_1199
If you're not holding long GBPUSD.. Price is sitting right on top of the 100.0 extension after punching though it... Just begging bulls to have some fun ! Might see a few more days of sideways chopping to complete wave 4 of "C" , but ultimately price should head higher towards the 161.8 FIB Extension at 1.7386 |
Hey Brad,
It's just as likely that last night's action was a fakeout to the long side, in what could have been a "B" wave of an expanded or running flat. We need one more push down to complete a 5 wave impulse to the downside off of the 6743 high. I think this 4th wave has some more downside in store for us before we make one final push higher into the end of the year to complete the entire correction. Just my 2 cents. |
06-30-2009, 09:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by apipintime
Hey Guys,
Apparently the NFA is in the process of modifying/removing the way we use stops and limits. I have yet to fully digest the new regulation, but I thought I would post the link. Looks like super regulation is on the way! Here is the link:
http://www.fxcm.com/lp3-nfa-fifo.jsp
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This is actually a good thing. The Compliance Rule 2-43a and 2-43b were put in place to help the retail customer. I'd suggest that you seek out and read the actual memo from the NFA to the CFTC about the CR 2/43. If you read it you'll find that it was put into place for two reasons.
The first (CR 2-43a) deals with price adjustments. FDM's had been adjusting prices on retail customer orders after they had already been executed in a way that always benefitted the FDM, and therefore negatively affected the retail customer. An investigation found that, for the majority of the time, the reasons for the price adjustments could have been prevented by the FDM, which would then not have had to negatively affect the retail customer.
The second part (CR 2-43b), which FXCM cites as the reason for prohibiting Stop Loss and Limit orders, came about due to the practice of hedging positions. The reason hedging was prohibited was in part because of the stupidity of the retail customer who didn't understand the negative effects of hedging on their account balances. The CFTC and NFA believe that the act of hedging positions is bad for the retail customer, and that the FDM's were using it as a way of collecting additional spreads and carrying costs.
Both of thses reasons for implementing CR 2-43 are both good for the retail FX trader. The retail FX market has been, and still is for a large part, an unregulated market. There will be much more of this regulation to come as more and more people start trading in this market. I think the regulation is good simply because it helps out the retail trader a lot of the time.
The issue of not being able to use stops and limits isn't as big of a deal as people are making it out to be. This will only be an issue for people who have multiple positions in the same currency pair. I can see that being a problem for people who trade both long-term and short-term strategies and may end up taking multiple positions in the same currency pair. This affects me and the way I get around it is simply by having two different trading accounts. One account is for my longer-term positions and the other is for my short-term trades.
I'm unclear still on whether or not stops and limits are going to be completely eliminated. If a trader only has one position in a given currency pair, then a stop and limit wouldn't really be an issue with the first in first out principle. But, even if it is an issue and stops and limits are completely eliminated, then the OCO order will suffice just fine. I use OCO orders quite frequently and they work great. Here's an example of how the OCO would be exactly the same as using a traditional stop and limit order:
Say you want to go long EUR/USD at 1.4000. Your stop on the trade is 1.3050 and your target is 1.4200. That gives you a 50 pip stop and a 200 pip target.
Traditionally, you would just link a stop and a limit order to your open position and be done with it. Now though, you are going to have to add an OCO order in place of the stop and limit. So all you have to do is enter the OCO with a sell at 1.3050 (stop-loss) and a sell at 1.4200 (target). These two sell orders are going to be under the same ticket number. So say now that you are correct on your analysis and the EUR/USD price moves up to 1.4200. Your sell order at 1.4200 will be filled and your original position will be closed out. In addition, because of the OCO your other sell order at 1.3050 will be cancelled because your target sell order was hit. The end result is that your original position is closed, and your stop and limit orders are both cancelled leaving you with no position or any pending orders in the market. That's the exact same way a traditional stop and limit order would work.
So the bottom line: This isn't a big deal...
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06-30-2009, 10:43 PM
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Usd/Cad
Trade Result ---------
=======================================
End of Wave 5
Last edited by marketwavez2; 06-30-2009 at 10:55 PM..
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06-30-2009, 10:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
So the bottom line: This isn't a big deal...
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The only problem as the video says is if customers have margin call and all their open position is automatically closed.
The OCD in this case has to be closed manually, otherwise new positions will be taken when the criteria is met.
Of course, people should not have margin call in the first place, but still for average retail customer who is new to FX and trading micro account, margin call would not be too unfamiliar.
Last edited by cmellon; 06-30-2009 at 10:50 PM..
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06-30-2009, 10:48 PM
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Gbp/Usd
Chart Update ............... No Entry ! .............. Trade Unable .............
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Price-Action was unable reach entry price of 6408 and went on to make higher highs
Last edited by marketwavez2; 06-30-2009 at 10:54 PM..
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06-30-2009, 10:57 PM
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Gbp/Usd
//////////////////////////////
a Work in Progress ......
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06-30-2009, 11:05 PM
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
The only problem as the video says is if customers have margin call and all their open position is automatically closed.
The OCD in this case has to be closed manually, otherwise new positions will be taken when the criteria is met.
Of course, people should not have margin call in the first place, but still for average retail customer who is new to FX and trading micro account, margin call would not be too unfamiliar.
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That's an issue then with the individual trader and not really the new rules. |
06-30-2009, 11:12 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,865
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Usd/Cad
Original Chart Post --- from last week
,,,,,,,, will update tomorrow
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06-30-2009, 11:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by qsx
30 pips in the green - moving stop to breakeven..
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Congradulations ! ................... keep up the good work |
06-30-2009, 11:40 PM
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Posts: 3,865
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Us Dollar
a work in progress ...........
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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07-01-2009, 12:16 AM
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Justy, That's very informative, thanks. I suppose in a long winded way that's the same point I was trying to get across, that this regulations actually benefit the retail players more and reduces unnecessary volatility, if successful it would mean good EW counts being validated more often than now and with precision.
Now if I may bother you, when you get to it, what is your take on usdyen. Have we completed X in your view? I know we had a similar count, although I still expect some moves to the 95.50-70. Thanks
Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
This is actually a good thing. The Compliance Rule 2-43a and 2-43b were put in place to help the retail customer. I'd suggest that you seek out and read the actual memo from the NFA to the CFTC about the CR 2/43. If you read it you'll find that it was put into place for two reasons.
The first (CR 2-43a) deals with price adjustments. FDM's had been adjusting prices on retail customer orders after they had already been executed in a way that always benefitted the FDM, and therefore negatively affected the retail customer. An investigation found that, for the majority of the time, the reasons for the price adjustments could have been prevented by the FDM, which would then not have had to negatively affect the retail customer.
The second part (CR 2-43b), which FXCM cites as the reason for prohibiting Stop Loss and Limit orders, came about due to the practice of hedging positions. The reason hedging was prohibited was in part because of the stupidity of the retail customer who didn't understand the negative effects of hedging on their account balances. The CFTC and NFA believe that the act of hedging positions is bad for the retail customer, and that the FDM's were using it as a way of collecting additional spreads and carrying costs.
Both of thses reasons for implementing CR 2-43 are both good for the retail FX trader. The retail FX market has been, and still is for a large part, an unregulated market. There will be much more of this regulation to come as more and more people start trading in this market. I think the regulation is good simply because it helps out the retail trader a lot of the time.
The issue of not being able to use stops and limits isn't as big of a deal as people are making it out to be. This will only be an issue for people who have multiple positions in the same currency pair. I can see that being a problem for people who trade both long-term and short-term strategies and may end up taking multiple positions in the same currency pair. This affects me and the way I get around it is simply by having two different trading accounts. One account is for my longer-term positions and the other is for my short-term trades.
I'm unclear still on whether or not stops and limits are going to be completely eliminated. If a trader only has one position in a given currency pair, then a stop and limit wouldn't really be an issue with the first in first out principle. But, even if it is an issue and stops and limits are completely eliminated, then the OCO order will suffice just fine. I use OCO orders quite frequently and they work great. Here's an example of how the OCO would be exactly the same as using a traditional stop and limit order:
Say you want to go long EUR/USD at 1.4000. Your stop on the trade is 1.3050 and your target is 1.4200. That gives you a 50 pip stop and a 200 pip target.
Traditionally, you would just link a stop and a limit order to your open position and be done with it. Now though, you are going to have to add an OCO order in place of the stop and limit. So all you have to do is enter the OCO with a sell at 1.3050 (stop-loss) and a sell at 1.4200 (target). These two sell orders are going to be under the same ticket number. So say now that you are correct on your analysis and the EUR/USD price moves up to 1.4200. Your sell order at 1.4200 will be filled and your original position will be closed out. In addition, because of the OCO your other sell order at 1.3050 will be cancelled because your target sell order was hit. The end result is that your original position is closed, and your stop and limit orders are both cancelled leaving you with no position or any pending orders in the market. That's the exact same way a traditional stop and limit order would work.
So the bottom line: This isn't a big deal...
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07-01-2009, 12:31 AM
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Posts: 202
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Sterling VST
Well,
Here is my read on the very short term for our friend the sterling....let's see if we get a push below 6410...probably 6380-50 to complete wave 5
__________________
Chemistry....It's Elementary!
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07-01-2009, 01:09 AM
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 617
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delta inversions
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
The only problem as the video says is if customers have margin call and all their open position is automatically closed.
The OCD in this case has to be closed manually, otherwise new positions will be taken when the criteria is met.
Of course, people should not have margin call in the first place, but still for average retail customer who is new to FX and trading micro account, margin call would not be too unfamiliar.
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Hi Cmellon,
If there are inversions in gbpusd will this possibly have an influence on gbpjpy delta count?
thanks
Patryk |
07-01-2009, 01:30 AM
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USDJPY
USDJPY has deffinately become my most hated pair as of late simply because this dam pair refuses to go down yet... A few weeks ago I posted a monthly chart showing what would likely happen if this month closed leaving a inverted hammer on top long term FIB support at 95.80 ... And guess what ! I can't believe it ! The inverted hammer is now in place on the chart and I'm NEAR certain a rally will ensue towards 105.00 in the coming months (ALTHOUGH I HOPE THIS PAIR JUST CRUMBLES!!!!)... This has got to be a continuation of a large wave 2 correction if it heads up higher from here.... Bears be on alert for short positions at the top... I know I sure will be...
USDJPY Monthly Chart ------->
Last edited by brad_1199; 07-01-2009 at 01:37 AM..
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