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07-02-2009, 07:40 PM
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Here's what I think is the possibility for the dreaded USD JPY. I posted a similar chart in USD JPY forum yesterday before NFP, but here I will do something different.
Attached is Delta - MTD chart for USD YEN.
First take a look at MTD 6 high (I circle them in the chart). They are all due in the middle between green and vertical red line. So I am comfortable with the current cycle's MTD 6 high position at 98.9 by comparing it to previous cycles.
Secondly, notice that MTD 6 (98.9) is lower than MTD 4 (101.4). I put rectange on the chart for MTD 4 high. This is a series of lower high. By Delta logic, this must mean that LTD (a higher TF than MTD) is travelling down. When LTD is travelling down, we will get a series of lower high and lower low in MTD time frame.
On the chart, If we take 87.1 (the low of the year) as MTD 1 low and LTD 1 low, MTD 4 high (101.4) must be LTD 2 high because of the reason I explained above that MTD 6 is lower than MTD 4.
The implication is that we should travel to MTD 7 low and MTD 7 low will be lower than MTD 5 low (lower than 94) because LTD is travelling down. MTD 7 could be due this month.
The only time USD JPY turns bullish is IF LTD 3 low was already DUE at MTD 5 low (due at 94), but looking at the structure, IMO this is not likely.
Last edited by cmellon; 07-02-2009 at 07:42 PM..
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07-02-2009, 07:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aerocom
Thanks Justy;
That explains a lot especially in view of the fact I switched and was looking at the uptrend line to complete wave 4 in the 3458 area.
I am also long the $yen. My overall view is that the $yen is in a long-term ending diagonal with this leg up likely to trade into the 109.76 area. Do you have a long term view.
Good Luck.
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My long-term view is that an ending diagonal is unfolding to the downside. Near-term, I'm looking for a rally up to about 110 - 115 before price turns lower again. |
07-02-2009, 07:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trading4cash
It Was worth the wait. I particularly like the idea of the leading diagonal as it helps with short-term insight as to what may be happening this pair. Which leads to asking whether you might be considering that leading diagonal when completed to be wave 1?
On a side note, I wonder if you are considering other counts on the monthly, my opinion on the doom and gloom scenario for the financial markets repeating on even a much larger scale seems unlikely, the reason being simply it would mean an implosion of the current model. Everyone loses. Of course a strengthening yen would not necessarily mean that at the time but it does in this current environment.
But this is just an opinion now, I'll let the market dictate and shape the direction. Just curious to know if you were also considering a bullish count on the monthly. Otherwise, thanks again for the chart, It really helps  |
My long-term view on the equities market has price continuing to correct in a complex correction (W-X-Y) for the next several years before eventually moving higher again. This scenario allows the JPY crosses to move lower while still keeping the correlation between the JPY crosses and the equities markets intact. |
07-02-2009, 08:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon
Here's what I think is the possibility for the dreaded USD JPY. I posted a similar chart in USD JPY forum yesterday before NFP, but here I will do something different.
Attached is Delta - MTD chart for USD YEN.
First take a look at MTD 6 high (I circle them in the chart). They are all due in the middle between green and vertical red line. So I am comfortable with the current cycle's MTD 6 high position at 98.9 by comparing it to previous cycles.
Secondly, notice that MTD 6 (98.9) is lower than MTD 4 (101.4). I put rectange on the chart for MTD 4 high. This is a series of lower high. By Delta logic, this must mean that LTD (a higher TF than MTD) is travelling down. When LTD is travelling down, we will get a series of lower high and lower low in MTD time frame.
On the chart, If we take 87.1 (the low of the year) as MTD 1 low and LTD 1 low, MTD 4 high (101.4) must be LTD 2 high because of the reason I explained above that MTD 6 is lower than MTD 4.
The implication is that we should travel to MTD 7 low and MTD 7 low will be lower than MTD 5 low (lower than 94) because LTD is travelling down. MTD 7 could be due this month.
The only time USD JPY turns bullish is IF LTD 3 low was already DUE at MTD 5 low (due at 94), but looking at the structure, IMO this is not likely.
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Hey C,
Under this scenario, MTD 7 could end up being a false break to the downside to complete Wave E of the triangle count. After we complete LTD 3 would LTD 4 then be higher than LTD 2?
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07-02-2009, 08:11 PM
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Equities
Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
My long-term view on the equities market has price continuing to correct in a complex correction (W-X-Y) for the next several years before eventually moving higher again. This scenario allows the JPY crosses to move lower while still keeping the correlation between the JPY crosses and the equities markets intact.
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Hey Justy,
Wow, that is an awfully ambitious X wave. Under that scenario, wouldn't the JPY crosses/Majors likely move higher inline with that X wave? |
07-02-2009, 08:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by apipintime
Hey C,
Under this scenario, MTD 7 could end up being a false break to the downside to complete Wave E of the triangle count. After we complete LTD 3 would LTD 4 then be higher than LTD 2?
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That needs SLTD analysis. I don't have SLTD analysis for USD JPY which could tell us where the SLTD low and high should have arrived compared to previous cycles. For pairs other than GBP USD, my analysis is only up to MTD. The LTD and SLTD are more time consuming and rather difficult to count casually. I could only look as far as MTD for this pair. |
07-02-2009, 08:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
My long-term view is that an ending diagonal is unfolding to the downside. Near-term, I'm looking for a rally up to about 110 - 115 before price turns lower again.
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Thanks Justy. I'm fairly close to you on the yen with the exception of targets.
I'll just run mine with an open target for now.
Good Luck. |
07-02-2009, 09:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
My long-term view on the equities market has price continuing to correct in a complex correction (W-X-Y) for the next several years before eventually moving higher again. This scenario allows the JPY crosses to move lower while still keeping the correlation between the JPY crosses and the equities markets intact.
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I am not as optimistic as you are Justy, I am expecting the following... |
07-02-2009, 09:52 PM
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Silver has traced out a beautiful 5 wave downward pattern. Expect a nice retracement in Silver to start soon. This suggests to me we may get some dollar weakness for the next coming days but it wont last. A move back to 15.00 or so and then it should tank. The markets should tank along side with it with it.
Last edited by italm31; 07-02-2009 at 10:00 PM..
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07-02-2009, 10:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by apipintime
Hey Justy,
Wow, that is an awfully ambitious X wave. Under that scenario, wouldn't the JPY crosses/Majors likely move higher inline with that X wave?
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It may mean just that. My mid-term USD/JPY count has price making a substantial rally up to around 110 or so.
The lines on the chart are only meant to show that I'm looking for a possible complex correction to unfold in the equities. There may be a triangle that unfolds, the (X) wave might be smaller... There are any number of possibilities. It's impossible to say for sure right now what will happen.
Last edited by justy10125; 07-02-2009 at 10:42 PM..
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07-02-2009, 11:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
My long-term view on the equities market has price continuing to correct in a complex correction (W-X-Y) for the next several years before eventually moving higher again. This scenario allows the JPY crosses to move lower while still keeping the correlation between the JPY crosses and the equities markets intact.
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I can see I'm not the only optimist on the stock market. I also expect some type of flat to complete this current correction.
The usdyen played out perfectly The other yen crosses seem to be in correction mode as well, I wonder how that would reconcile with usdyen taking off at the same time, I suppose it would mean gbpusd and eurusd dropping quite a bit down. |
07-02-2009, 11:56 PM
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Sterling
Looks to me like we are working on a triangle before a push down. This should complete in the next couple of hours and a break down below 6320 ushers in 6280 - 6230.
__________________
Chemistry....It's Elementary!
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07-03-2009, 01:10 AM
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dxy
Quote:
Originally Posted by italm31
Silver has traced out a beautiful 5 wave downward pattern. Expect a nice retracement in Silver to start soon. This suggests to me we may get some dollar weakness for the next coming days but it wont last. A move back to 15.00 or so and then it should tank. The markets should tank along side with it with it.
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I agree about possible dollar weekness - DXY - If a triangle in an X wave position was forming there over past few days then wave E seems to be complete now (80.612 - .618 fibo of D an sloping TL resistance) - there is also a possibilty that a triangle unfolds, but in opposite direction - or this is a choppy complex B wave
sorry unable to post a chart - maybe someone else could do this please
Patryk |
07-03-2009, 01:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trading4cash
I can see I'm not the only optimist on the stock market. I also expect some type of flat to complete this current correction.
The usdyen played out perfectly The other yen crosses seem to be in correction mode as well, I wonder how that would reconcile with usdyen taking off at the same time, I suppose it would mean gbpusd and eurusd dropping quite a bit down. |
Hi Tradingfor4cash - you may be right about this expanded flat in Dow, BUT in order to cool down your optimism take a look at sp500 chart - there is possibly a &s pattern forming - shoulders tend tobe symetrical, thus a right shoulder should have one more top slightly higher than previous one - so this exp. flat could be in X wave position - on dailies there is a sloping TL just ahead of sp500 - soon it will be more clear
Patryk |
07-03-2009, 03:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justy10125
Here's a longer-term count for EUR/USD. Price has so far unfolded in a series of three-wave moves, so a diagonal could be unfolding.
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Yep, nice observation
One day you could take the name like "master of the diagonals" |
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