Elliott Wave Trading Discussion - Page 933

Ilovepippin · #**13981** (**permalink**) 07-03-2009, 05:15 PM

Before I close down for the weekend, just noticed another diagonal, we know what that means...

Big Mike · #**13982** (**permalink**) 07-03-2009, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ilovepippin

Before I close down for the weekend, just noticed another diagonal, we know what that means...

Good observation, Pippin

It certainly looks like an ending diagonal in wave C. Wave "e" is not complete yet, it might end up in undershoot.
We know what it means. It is a very powerful bullish signal. It will be fully retraced. In this case, in excess of 1.675

It will be lots of fun to watch.

BTW: EURUSD cannot be far behind. I have been advocating on these pages for a week now that EURUSD is forming a leading diagonal. I am saying this because each leading wave 1,3,5 can be subdivided into 5 waves. So, it surely looks like a leading diagonal to me. It must end up with a deep A-B-C correction to confirm, which is happening now.
Once the correction is finished, it will burst up in a powerful motive wave.
I become more and more convinced that my scenario with EURUSD moving up to 1.48 will play after all, despite all gloom and doom.

apipintime · #**13983** (**permalink**) 07-03-2009, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Good observation, Pippin

It certainly looks like an ending diagonal in wave C. Wave "e" is not complete yet, it might end up in undershoot.
We know what it means. It is a very powerful bullish signal. It will be fully retraced. In this case, in excess of 1.675

It will be lots of fun to watch.

BTW: EURUSD cannot be far behind. I have been advocating on these pages for a week now that EURUSD is forming a leading diagonal. I am saying this because each leading wave 1,3,5 can be subdivided into 5 waves. So, it surely looks like a leading diagonal to me. It must end up with a deep A-B-C correction to confirm, which is happening now.
Once the correction is finished, it will burst up in a powerful motive wave.
I become more and more convinced that my scenario with EURUSD moving up to 1.48 will play after all, despite all gloom and doom.

Hey Mike,

Leading Diagonal (pg. 40 of EWP)

"When diagonal triangles occur in the wave 5 or C position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. The characteristic overlapping of waves 1 and 4 and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The structure of this formation fits the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a continuation message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions of the ending diagonal."

I am not quite sure that each of Waves 1,3 and 5 of that supposed Leading Diagonal are standalone impulsive structures, Wave 1 does not look remotely impulsive. So, in my opinion, that looks much more like a B wave than a Leading Diagonal.

apipintime · #**13984** (**permalink**) 07-03-2009, 08:42 PM

This is what I see transpiring. The equity and oil markets look like they are in for a bout of weakness, same for gold. I expect we'll see some USD strength for most of the summer, followed by a big rally in equities and oil into the end of the year.

kaori · #**13985** (**permalink**) 07-03-2009, 09:00 PM

HS pattern is part of the EW theory as well. I´ll find it reasonable easy as non-inverse it presents W5 top, while left shoulder is often W3.

Looks alike right shoulder was placed, this is actually where the more powerfull downroll should start progressing in dailychart picture. 147 $ was WTIC top, natural issue is that under 75 $ 50% made toproof for it. Should retrace at least 61.8% and chart definetely have daily impulse set as one can see, first corrective A is propably finished now, so it´s corrective B meaning C wave down should be accurate and we propably saw allready very first W1 of C allready. Getting better, corrective W2 as next and then something bigger should start coming down.

I do expect to see nasty C wave down and with that idea eurodollar definetely should not be bullish either or any another product actually (ie. SPX). Perhaps day or two consolidation ahead with that eurodollar from thursday plunge.

If I do remember correct at least Brad was the one who had a bullish count for oil/spx a few weeks ago, so some EW analyst there might disagree, but you might have more hard times ahead with that falling MACD. Overall it starts to seems for me, SPX 880 will be the next area and likely reversal from there ahead again, but this market is getting just deeper for B wave as correction mode. We might see SPX800 before autumn season comes.

brad_1199 · #**13986** (**permalink**) 07-03-2009, 11:11 PM

Oil is going through a short term correction but the steam is building and price is going to sky rocket towards $175 and perhaps even further in the course of this final rally.....

Xiao · #**13987** (**permalink**) 07-03-2009, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199

Oil is going through a short term correction but the steam is building and price is going to sky rocket towards $175 and perhaps even further in the course of this final rally.....

Hi Brad, Amazing Must Appreciate your Technical Analysis.

And So good that You do trade in Commodity.

Big Mike · #**13988** (**permalink**) 07-04-2009, 01:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by apipintime

Hey Mike,

Leading Diagonal (pg. 40 of EWP)

"When diagonal triangles occur in the wave 5 or C position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. The characteristic overlapping of waves 1 and 4 and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different,
tracing out a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern.
The structure of this formation fits the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a continuation message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions of the ending diagonal."

I am not quite sure that each of Waves 1,3 and 5 of that supposed Leading Diagonal are standalone impulsive structures, Wave 1 does not look remotely impulsive. So, in my opinion, that looks much more like a B wave than a Leading Diagonal.

In a leading diagonal wave iv enters into the territory of wave i (so called overlap), hence my argument that it is a leading diagonal remains valid, at least IMHO. See the part that I hi-lited in DARK RED and separate line, above.
Plus which, GBP and EUR might differ in details, but they move in principle in unison. Simply speaking, both economies (Europe and the UK, or Swiss, for that matter), are too closely connected; they could not afford HUGE discrepancies.
If GBP moves up, EUR must follow (within reasonable margin)

ronnimar · #**13989** (**permalink**) 07-04-2009, 08:01 AM

follow up post 12040 : it look's to me that w:2/b is ready 2 move !?

kaori · #**13990** (**permalink**) 07-04-2009, 08:52 AM

Oil is going through a short term correction but the steam is building and price is going to sky rocket towards $175 and perhaps even further in the course of this final rally...

Be carefull brad, it might do same trick as YEN crosses just did, meaning landing...

apipintime · #**13991** (**permalink**) 07-04-2009, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Mike

In a leading diagonal wave iv enters into the territory of wave i (so called overlap), hence my argument that it is a leading diagonal remains valid, at least IMHO. See the part that I hi-lited in DARK RED and separate line, above.
Plus which, GBP and EUR might differ in details, but they move in principle in unison. Simply speaking, both economies (Europe and the UK, or Swiss, for that matter), are too closely connected; they could not afford HUGE discrepancies.
If GBP moves up, EUR must follow (within reasonable margin)

Can you diagram where waves 1,3 and 5 of your supposed Leading Diagonal are standalone 5 wave impulsive structures? Because I don't see it.

Big Mike · #**13992** (**permalink**) 07-04-2009, 10:15 AM

The leading diagonal triangle wave. The leading diagonal triangle, or wedge as many call it, is a narrowing price move composed of two converging trendlines occurring in a wave 1 position of impulses or wave A position of zigzags. The chart to the right shows the ideal example without any subwaves highlighted.

Notice that wave 4 overlaps wave 1, just as it does in the ending diagonal triangle pattern. However, the ending diagonal triangle has a 3-3-3-3-3 subwave structure, but the leading diagonal triangle shows a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The next chart makes this clear.

Frost and Prechter write,

"The structure of this formation fits the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions of the actionary waves communicate a ’continuation’ message as opposed to the ’termination’ implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the actionary waves of the ending diagonal."

I have no idea what that means, but I couldn’t have said it better myself. They go on to write that Elliott did not discover this pattern, but Frost and Prechter believe it is valid.

About identification, they go on to write,

"The main key to recognizing this pattern is the decided slowing of price change in the fifth subwave relative to the third. By contrast, in developing first and second waves, short term speed typically increases, and breath (i.e., the number of stocks or subindexes participating) often expands."

Rules

The leading diagonal triangle has rules that govern its shape. They are listed here.

* The subwave action usually follows two converging trendlines.
* Subwave four often overlaps subwave 1.
* The subwave count is 5-3-5-3-5.
* The leading diagonal triangle usually occurs as part of wave one of impulses or wave A of zigzags.

The above is the quote from Bulkowski.
Does it clarify the issue? Probably not.
To me, probability of a leading diagonal is high. Risk is limited; once the last C wave down is finished. Reward is high.
Is it a PERFECT leading diagonal? Subwaves 1, 5 are not impulses, but can be construed as motive waves.

kaori · #**13993** (**permalink**) 07-04-2009, 10:42 AM

Can you diagram where waves 1,3 and 5 of your supposed Leading Diagonal are standalone 5 wave impulsive structures? Because I don't see it.

From the neighbour table just a comment for your thread, leading diagonal do not have any impulse waves, only ending diagonal does - just as Big Mike pinpointed out below.

Edward16 · #**13994** (**permalink**) 07-04-2009, 10:45 AM

Hello guys,
Here is my count for EuroAud.
Entered Short at the end of wave 4.
1st tg: 1.7324.
2nd tg: 1.7146.

Edwards,

apipintime · #**13995** (**permalink**) 07-04-2009, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Mike

Rules

The leading diagonal triangle has rules that govern its shape. They are listed here.

* The subwave action usually follows two converging trendlines.
* Subwave four often overlaps subwave 1.
* The subwave count is 5-3-5-3-5.
* The leading diagonal triangle usually occurs as part of wave one of impulses or wave A of zigzags.

The above is the quote from Bulkowski.
Does it clarify the issue? Probably not.
To me, probability of a leading diagonal is high. Risk is limited; once the last C wave down is finished. Reward is high.
Is it a PERFECT leading diagonal? Subwaves 1, 5 are not impulses, but can be construed as motive waves.

Well, either waves 1 and 5 are impulses(as governed by the rules that make an impulse an impulse) or they are not. From what I can see, they are not impulses, nor do the boundary lines converge, therefore it is highly likely that it is not a Leading Diagonal, and more likely a corrective wave.